The controversy surrounding Affleck is a case that closed many years ago. That said, I'm guessing the pieces bringing up his past aren't helping. Nobody really wants to see someone with a douchy history succeed (which is mostly what led to that Washington over Crowe upset 15 years ago).
My mom thought Hidden Figures was the best movie of the last few years. It's definitely connected with a portion of audiences in something of a unique way.
If Denzel wins his third, more time will have past since his second win (15 years) than since his first to his second (12 years). You could definitely make a case there.