James

Has anyone else watched The End Of The F***ing World? It was so damn brilliant! The total running time of the series is something like 2 and a half hours, yet it managed to create more a connection to the characters than any movie I have seen in a while.

The poster is cool enough and that teaser was funny. I expected for this to do something around 60-70m, but it might actually have a chance to be a decent sized hit. The humor seems to be Lego-esque so this might actually attract some adult viewers too. Maybe 35/115/280m WW?

How? Good critical reception, great audience reception. The RT audience score says that. Same with the IMDB score and the fact that it had one of the best multipliers for a live action blockbuster movie in 2016. And the OS holds were more than great. So how was it mixed. There is no evidence of that. I think it will definitely make over 900m WW, with a shot at 1B, especially with the Dumbledore connection finally established. It is amazing to me how people seem to always forget that The Wizarding Wold has the most stable fanbase out of any franchises.

I love Grace, I do! She is by far my favorite reviewer, but her BO-prediction skills are so bad. Leaving FB2 out of the WW Top 10 and including stuff like Dark Phoenix and Black Panther? Don't get me wrong, this is my most anticipated X-Men movie ever and I loved Apocalypse, but come on! There is 0% chance Dark Phoenix (or BP for that matter) makes more than FB2 WW. Actually, the only movies hat will make more are The Avengers and Jurassic World, with The Incredibles having an outside shot if OS is huge. But other than that, I don't think any other movie will come even close.

This! The first season, as much as I like it, is basically: Elizabeth promises or plans to do something; Elizabeth is convinced to not do that thing.

Seeing how this thread has gone (hilariously) off topic, has anyone seen Netflix's THE CROWN? I just started second season. I never thought I would like it this much, especially since it is the definition of a slow burner.

Little observation, but I find it interesting looking at SW and The Avengers. TA (1.52b) --> AoU (1.40b) TFA (2.07b) --> TLJ (~1.3b) I find it incredible that TLJ, coming off TFA, that made 500m+ more than TA, will end up under AoU.

You know, reading this forum today I was thinking I want the whole TLJ thing to be over already because it is getting boring. Like, even I got bored to continuously bad mouth it. And right when I was thinking I am over it, it (allegedly) makes 20m this weekend and this emoji comes to mind: . If anything, it is a damn interesting run!

If the total ends up under the RO opening weekend you have to wonder if Solo will even make 15m.

Why would be GO more surprising than IT? Yeah, the legs were great, but in the end it was an R-rated horror movie that made 175m and IT doubled that. I remember people on this forum debating whether IT would end up grossing more than GO or not and it made almost 330m. How is that not surprising. Plus, it also did extraordinarily well OS, making more than most blockbusters WW. GO did decent OS, but nothing more.

If SK s any indication, this will have way worse legs than RO, let alone TFA. I said it before. This is not making 50m.

Definitely IT. People where s surprised when The Conjuring dd what it did WW and IT more than doubled that. It is in a league of it's own.

Olive, how are the presales for TLJ looking compared to Rogue One? Also, would you be kind enough to provide me with a link with for site where you take the numbers from? Thank you!

I think a lot of people are underestimating Paddington. The last animation hit was Coco. And while the family market had some strong contenders, I think the strong reception plus the popularity the first movie gained since release should be enough to push it past 100m. Maybe even 150m.

How so? How could they have know what the reception would be like before the movie came out?

I think the most interesting thing to see will be Disney's reaction to TLJ's numbers. WB was very reactionary with the DCEU reception and in the end that might've done more bad than good. And before anyone replies with the "TLJ will make 1.3B WW, it is a huge hit!" (which it is, but that is not the point), anyone who thinks that an almost 800m WW drop from TFA is what Disney envisioned for TLJ is out of their mind!

Off topic but: I just saw JUNGLE, the Daniel Radcliffe movie, and it was such an amazing survival story. I really don't understand the low RT score. I mean yes, there is no plot twist, but there doesn't have to be. The acting is fantastic and as simple of a story at it was, it was so suspenseful! On another topic, regarding the BRIGHT talk from a few pages ago. I just randomly saw my 19 yo brother watch a music video for one of the songs from the soundtrack. And he said exactly this: I never saw so much advertisement for any movie ever. It is everywhere. And mind you, he has no idea about BO and Netflix isn't even that big here. Combine the marketing barrage with the soundtrack by a lot of popular artists and bang, you have a mini-Suicide Squad. No wonder it is pulling in so many viewers.

There is no way in hell Ep 9 does under 500m. Come on! My 640m prediction from a year ago for TLJ looks to be spot on and I think for Ep 9 the mark to beat is 600m. My prediction is 570m for now.

My TLJ prediction was spot on haha. The rest though...

I think they will make up for that with 3 movies in the WW Top 10.

Do we also post WW predictions here? Avengers 3 - 1.3B Jurassic World 2 - 1.1B Fantastic Beasts 2 - 1B The Incredibles - 900m Deadpool 2 - 740m Solo - 730m Mulan - 725m Black Panther - 720m Aquaman - 710m Grinch - 700m MI6 / Ready Player One / Marry Poppoins - 650m

Not really a good example. Titanic was a freak of nature, same with Avatar. Even more than that, there were way fewer blockbusters in 1997 than today. Nowadays you have a big movie coming out every other weekend so the GA's attention is divided. And the american market, while having slight ups and downs, is stable around 10-11B for almost 10 years now.

It will finish with around 15m, no?

SW is doing strong internationally in select markets. I don't think the issue here are the number themselves. 600-700m OS is still damn strong in today's climate. The problem is that probably no SW movie will touch 1B OS again for many many years to come, because SW keeps being strong in those select territories where the prequels too where strong, but fails to impress in emerging markets (most of Asia and Latin America). The reason why there are brands that make 800-1b OS nowadays is exactly those markets. SW is super strong in UK, Australia, Japan, France, Germany (and a few other smaller markets). In fact it is so strong that it makes the fall seem less big. But that doesn't change the fact that these markets have already hit their peak, while the emerging markets are exactly that: still growing. To illustrate my point: Both TFA and RO made almost 50% of their OS gross from those 5 markets. RO made 245m from those markets. DM3 (another big OS franchise) made 240m from those markets, so close enough for a comparison. Still, even though they made almost the same number in those 5 countries, RO ended with 525m OS, while DM3 made 770m. That is a huge 245m difference (difference that is mainly made by Asia and Latin America). At the rate it is going, TLJ will have an even bigger share from those 5 markets than TFA or RO had which means the initial enthusiasm that made TFA reach 1b OS is wearing off. I don't think anyone is saying that SW isn't big OS. Just that it relies heavily on a handful of markets to make it's money. Which is not bad short term, but it reduces a lot it's chances of growing in WW grosses as a franchise.

A bit off topic, but looking at Mojo's studio yearly breakdown, what a crazy year this was for Hollywood! Fox is gone, Paramount had their worst year ever (and looking at their 2018 schedule, things don't look much better, so there's a good chance they will soon be gone too), Weinstein is also looking to disappear. On the other hand, Disney and WB continue to dominate, and Lionsgate looks to fill some of the space left by Fox's (and probably soon Paramount's) exit. They had such a good year (almost 900m DOM). And with all the ups and down, even since they became big in 2012, they always posted good to great yearly results. All in all, in retrospect, it seems like such a crazy year to me!