James

Did those 2 had 3-day weekends as well?

That is true, but this will still be profitable. And much much more important, it is great advertising for the merchandise and theme parks which is where the real money comes from. Just think that between 2012 and 2016 the Wizarding World brand gained more than 4b in value, reaching an unbelievable 25b (second only to SW). That 4b is as much as brands as LOTR/Twilight are worth overall and without any movie released. And even without the insane merchandise revenues, let's be honest, the sequels could make 100m DOM, but they would still do at least 550-600m WW. Which studio wouldn't want such a franchise?

That would be insane considering the max Potter got there was DH2's 30m and most of the other Potters didn't even break 20m.

The thing is, I don't understand why it isn't translating (or maybe it is and it will have an awesome Saturday) to kids. If you take a look at the NYT bestselling list or at the Amaozn selling charts the books are still selling amazingly well. In fact, they haven't left the NYT Children's List at all in the last 9 years. Not even for a week. I think the problem was the marketing. Aside from the music, which not everyone knows, the connection wasn't really exploited. Actually, thinking about it, if it weren't for that last trailer that really exploded, the movie would have fared much worse. WB kinda dropped the ball on this one and I hope they learn from it. If marketed well, the sequel could do wonders for the franchise. Instead of that 'From the world of JK Rowling' tag they should've said 'From the world of Harry Potter'. The magical words. Yeah, it would've been like cheating, but still, it would've been effective. Drop the Potter name as much as you can.

Yeah, something around 2.7-2.8x sounds about right. It will add much more than 70m OS in the next few days. The Sat increase should be huge in most major markets. Just look at SK. 200m WW will easily go down. Expecting more in the line of 220m.

You brits better! It is your legacy. It seems to be doing well here too. It should easily beat all Potter movies. It's not about the WOM (which is good btw; 8.2 grade on Cinemagia), but rather the market expansion.

Maybe it will go over 6m and 15m for the weekend. Lol, that would be something considering you shut me down immediately when I suggested it a few days ago

If it matters, internationally it seems to behave like a family blockbuster rather than a HP flick. I doubt it only gets a 2.4x multi.

Wow. That is almost 4.4m pounds.

Not showing it so far at all. The preview/OD ratio is the same as DS. And I have a feeling Sat will play really well.

Gosh, I really hope it comes closer to 1m. Any indication of how the WOM is?

Actually, given Olive's latest update in the China presales thread, it's OD presales are higher than DS' through the same point. Ofc, in the US presales were also higher, but it is encouraging news nonetheless.

I have learned not to trust presales so much, but that looks like a good sign.

I answered in the FB too to this. That polling is mostly for midnights and friday morning, which is still a school day. Ofc there are few kids. Wait for Sat.

It should increase way more than that. It's a family movie.

Based on Naver, the WOM is very strong. It is quite stable around DS levels.

It is a weekend estimate after not even having the Friday estimate. Ofc it is early. That is why weekend estimates are later in the weekend. What the hell man, it's like you are so blinded by your dislike for this for some reason that your forget it is barely Sat morning and this is Deadline we're talking about.

I fully agree with you. But if it gets to 800m that will be with good legs which would mean it was well received. At this point, I think tha would please most people, since the sequel has something FB1 hadn't. Unlike The Hobbit for example, which crammed the most import connection it got (Gollum) into the first movie, FB had nothing. But it will have Dumbledore reintroduced in the second movie. Now some people might argue that is not a big deal, but just yesterday I read this in the FB thread: If the old hardcore HP fans are anything like me (this will be the first HP movie I don't see on OD since the first one), they just aren't invested in this story. As much as the fans love JKR, I can't imagine any fan has ever thought, "You know what I want next from the universe? A 5-part film series about Newt Scamander, that guy who was literally just a random name in the HP books, and who was never even brought up in the movies!" This isn't the story fans really wanted or cared about seeing. An actual, non-Cursed Child related sequel? A series about Harry's parents' time at Hogwarts, fully displaying the friendship and fallout of Snape and Lily? A daring series spanning much of Dumbledore's early life, from his teen/young adult years, displaying his complicated relationship and infatuation with Grindelwald, to his rise to power, and ending with his (potentially heartbreaking) final showdown with Grindelwald? I can see those generating far more interest. This was a HP fan not even knowing that the franchise would move in that direction. With much bigger stakes, this and a well received first movie, I could see the second movie at least staying flat WW, if not increasing.

This. And honestly, this is The Wizarding World we're talking about. Even if these movies were only making 500m WW each, the overall win for WB would still be enormous. The merchandise alone would add billions. I don't think most people realize that these movies, as profitable as they are, are just huge advertising for much more pricier stuff. Side note: FB registered a huge 91k tweets yesterday with extremely positive pos:neg ratio (28:1). Today starts with an incredible 129:1 pos:neg ratio. And most of that comes from the US probably, considering it's still early in the morning in Europe. Anecdotal, I know, but that is waaaay better than what DS had, and that one had excellent WOM. My point is, I don't think this will act as a Potter movie at all.

That's just early estimate and I doubt it goes that low. However, I find that article absolutely ridiculous. They are asking themselves if a 750-800m WW grosser would be enough to kick off a new franchise. Are you fuckin kiddin me? It makes me mad. Yeah, it did not reach Potter heights. Yeah, I wish it would have. But this is still a huge win. At this point I am a bit angry at WB for not making the Potter connection more clear in their marketing. But even Deadline shows that the early signs point to great WOM. I am hoping for the best.

Yeah, and you know that how? And of course the presales were stronger. This is a HP spin-off ffs. Also, if you take a look at the midnight/OD ratio, it is exactly the same: 29%. I really don't get why people don't see that or take it into account.

Clearly £4m

This pretty much shows it is way less frontloaded than Potter. For comparisson, the previews % of the OD for the last Potter movies: DH2 - 48% DH1 - 39% FB - 29% Hopefully it goes over 30m with evening shows.

About 3600.

Ok guys, going to sleep. Better wake up to a 30m+ OD.