DAJK

I want to say I have faith this can outgross Killers Of The Flower Moon, but part of me still is worried this is going to pull Last Duel numbers.

CJohn always gotta find a way to spin the numbers in a bad light Deadline’s first 7M update… BOMB! 40M OD… silence. BUT KILLERS DROP IS AWFUL AND RENFIELD BOMBED.

Good cinemascore. Fans liking it will likely lead to repeat business, since that is the core audience for this anyways. I’m a high school teacher and many of my students are going multiple times just so they can see it with different friends. Anecdotal sure, but that’s solid for a movie like this. Also I know it’s just one data point and our tried and true trackers like @Porthos @keysersoze123 @M37 @XXR's Eras Tour and others can probably provide better, more accurate data, but across the handful of British Columbia theaters I track, this thing blew up tonight. Wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Friday total (including Thursday) landed in the low-40s. The theatres I track suggest a true Friday somewhere in the range of 28M (low end) to 33M (high end). We’ll see where this thing lands.

Not sure about the other trackers, but Freddy’s is POPPING tonight around here. Even if I wanted to see it in town, I couldn’t because every single show today was sold out. Every single one. This really feels like the biggest horror event since It (2017) bar none.

Freddy’s still selling pretty well locally. Not sure what other MTC trackers are seeing but given regional comps I don’t see this missing 10M unless ATP is insanely low.

My dad really wants to see Freelance lol. Not very often that happens with a movie I never heard of.

Re tracking, I started back in 2015 when I started working at a local theatre. I kept track of sales at that theater, and used those comparisons to make predictions for upcoming releases. Over time I added more theaters to my usual tracking. Over time, the other amazing people in this thread made the system better, gathering more and more data and using those regional comparisons to predict opening weekends based on presales, something I was never able to do using just a few handful of theaters.

FNAF tickets are only on sale for Thursday around here (weekend won’t go on sale until late tonight/tomorrow). And there are two things that are blowing me away. 1) the sheer number of tickets being sold. You would think this is a Marvel movie in the 2016-2019 era. 2) the PACE is not letting up! This didn’t have a big first day and then taper off. Sales are steady, and the numbers keep going up and up and up.

Just got out of Killers. Good movie, but you can REALLY feel the runtime, and I wonder if that’ll impact WOM.

FNAF is rated 14A in British Columbia. Ain’t no “kid priced tickets” being bought unless parents are taking their kids.

The way the world treated Jennifer’s Body back in ‘09 still makes me mad to this day. If it were released in 2023 sure it probably still wouldn’t have grossed much but would have a high RT score (80s easily) and wouldn’t be the butt of a ton of jokes. Great film, hoping for the same here. I see Diablo Cody I’m on board.

Does anyone know why exactly tickets are non-refundable? I can't think of a logical reason why that would be explained other than *cue Mr. Krabs voice* MONEY!

Wow October 11, 1989 sure was a popular day in the maternity ward for BOT members. Happy birthday all you silly (very real, definitely not bot or spam accounts) geese! Hope it's a good one!

If it doesn’t get the Oct record I would consider it a disappointment for a number of reasons. I actually really like @Eric MacNeil’s sentiment about how it doesn’t really madder how much profit billionaire studios and CEOs make, and what the budget was. What I care about is movie theaters: ticket sales leading to concession sales that keep the exhibition industry alive. When this was announced, it filled a gaping void in October, and was an excellent sign for theaters. While 100M would be nothing to scoff at, and would certainly make Taylor a pretty penny, she still is in that category of “mega millionaires/billionaires who I couldn’t care less how much profit they make.” Same with Tom Cruise for example, him personally earning 100M+ from Maverick is a “good for him” from me and little else. All I really care about is keeping the exhibition industry alive, I couldn’t care less how much money these billionaires make in profits.

Yea the new app sucks and makes tracking 1000x harder. Up until Nov 2022 the website made it super easy to track multiple theaters at once, but then it changed. Awful change, and I know a lot of people at the company who hate it too lol.

Hahahahaha I can almost guarantee you it is not If so, I would love to be on the internet you are on, seems like such a nice place

I don't think 70-100 would be awful taken out of context (although I don't think this will reach that high barring GOTG3-level reception). Captain Marvel was a c-level character prior to her first movie. That first film benefitted a lot by coming out between IW and EG, when Marvel craze was arguably at its peak. Had Captain Marvel come out in, say, 2013-2016, it would have likely opened in the 70-100 range (if not slightly lower) as well. This movie coming back down to Earth (no pun intended) seems more like regression towards the mean more than anything, rather than a complete crashing and burning. We'll see how reception is, and whether or not presales pick up over the next few weeks. For now, I'm expecting Black Adam numbers domestically.

There's been a lot of hate for Zegler going around tiktok lately (yes, it's mostly within sexist/misogynistic circles, but it has sort of evolved into a meme into other online spaces now). If you go on Lionsgate ads for the movie on tiktok, a lot of the top comments are saying things like "I'd go see this if Rachel wasn't in it." Really a shame. One, because people are jerks. Two, Zegler's a great actress. And three, this movie looks really good. I genuinely hope its a hit, and that this little internet sillyness (using this in place of other, more accurate words) doesn't affect the movie's performance.

The language in here is incredibly condescending lol. Whatever, I agree with you and it seems like the rest of the thread does too minus a single post from a specific user who could have been contacted privately. Glad this board is protecting actors/professionals who are clearly dealing with behind the scenes issues that frankly we know nothing about and therefore should be careful when passing judgement. Still, weirdly juvenile way of responding to a user's comment.

I really REALLY don’t want to add to any alarmist narrative, but across the 5 theaters I regularly track, Marvels has sold 0 tickets so far in 4 of them. Yea, you heard that right. And only 1 of these are what you could consider a “small” theater. The big theater (SilverCity in Victoria) has only sold 10 tickets across the entire weekend. I don’t usually track presales data this far out, but I have a few data points to work from. At this theater, Shang Chi was at 39 after an hour, Dune was at 60. NTTD, which skews older and walkup heavy was at 19. Flash was at 26. EDIT: just realized that these numbers for the other movies are Thursday only, where Marvels has 6 (4 others for the rest of the weekend). Not even going to bother with comps to No Way Home or Eras Tour, which were in the hundreds after an hour. But this is really really pathetic, and worries me about the box office for the remainder of the year. Marvel needs to do something with this film to get people interested, and they need to do it fast. Yes, I understand that presales can pick up, but this is a very worrying start for a movie that is part of such a presales heavy franchise. At this point, I’m almost certain that FNAF will open higher.

For anyone cheering movie theaters > studios... A movie with a 200M budget that makes 75M domestic is usually better for a theater than a movie with a 1M budget making 40M. Theaters just need ticket sales, that's it.

Eras has nothing to do with Exorcist’s performance. Not affecting screen counts this weekend, and it’s playing to just it’s own base and won’t really have appeal outside of that. It’s not a 4-quadrant blockbuster so I would say it’s impact on anything else this month will be minimal.

Meh. Bring on Taylor.

FNAF feels like it’s shaping up to be the next Detective Pikachu. People are gonna start predicting 100-200M+ OW for it, sticking their heads in the sand and yell at everyone who’s not on board. And then freak out that the movie is a huge bomb when it “only” opens to 40M or so.

Just a heads up for some folks, tomorrow is a national holiday in Canada (schools out) so drops on Sunday could potentially look slightly better than estimated.