Wrath

Not to quibble, but you didn't give me the extra 3,000 for getting 10/12. Also, I'm a little bummed out at realizing I somehow missed that entire last batch of pre-season questions. Not sure how exactly I did that..

Very true. I have a buddy who's a venture capitalist. One of the companies his firm invested in does automated journalism-type stuff (not sure if its the same one, I didn't read the whole article). Their big score was with Yahoo, in that if you do one of their fantasy sports leagues, you can pay extra and they'll generate fake news reports about all the games during the week for the fantasy league. And in fact you can tweak it a bit with your preferances, making the news reports more or less funny, or sarcastic, or irreverent or whatever. They're the ones providing it, and its actually pretty cool.

I agree. 2m previews was solid, bordering on better than expected. 4-5m Wed w/o previews swings back towards expected, bordering on underwhelming, territory.

Those are some of the worst special effects I've ever seen. That having been said, you *know* the creators of Sharknado are taking notes on what to do with Sharknado 4.

Bingo. I'm not saying its not going to make it, I'm even saying its probable that it'll make it. I'm just saying its nowhere near a lock. Edit - And as one of the few people who didn't go less/less/more/more/less (in fact, PP2 was the only one I didn't guess on), I'm rooting really hard against it. Edit2 - Eh, its not so much that JW will hurt it specifically as that JW is going to suck the wind out of everything that weekend. The more direct threat really is Spy. If it gets through this weekend with around a 50% drop its probably fine. But if Spy hurts it and it drops more, then it could be an issue.

Agreed. Everything else is... while maybe not quite locks (other than maybe Tomorrowland), they're all 90+% likely. PP2 is maybe 60% likely.

Congrats to Tele on the promotion. I assume it was a seniority thing?

Both of those movies had ludicriously strong legs, though. I dunno if predicting a 4.5-5x multiplier is reasonable, especially with mediocre reviews. Edit - I will say I agree that a dom total in the neighborhood of LBC, like 80-85m, seems optimistic but reasonable and I'm sure WB would be very happy with that. Edit2 - What was Entourage's budget? 40m?

I think its 60% likely to hit 150m. So, yes, I think its possible.

You could be, you know. All you have to do is answer the questions now and then.

0 for 5 on the movie order. Ouch.

So, Answers to week 5 looks like: 1) Will San Andreas open to more than 40 million? Yes (54M) 2) Will San Andreas have an opening day of more than 15 million? Yes (18.1M) 3) Will any film, in more than 2000 theaters, fall less than 42%? No (MMFR 42.5% was closest) 4) Will AOU fall less than 56.3%? Yes (47.4%) 5) Will Pitch Perfect 2 make more than Tomorrowland? Yes (14.8 vs 14.3) 6) Will Mad Max fall less than 50%? Yes (42.5%) 7) Will Poltergeist fall more than 59%? Yes (64.4%) 8) Will Hot Pursuit increase more than 50% on Saturday? No (47.1%) 9) How many films will make more than 400K on Thursday? (I'm not spelling this out for you, figure it out. How many films that are reported, will make more than 400K on Thursday..domestic only of course) 7 10) Will any film fall more than 30% on Sunday? Yes (PP2 32.2%) 11) Will any film increase more than 110% on Friday? Yes (PP2 126.4%) 12) Will Mad Max increase less than 27% on Saturday? No (50%) 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots: 6 Aloha (9.67M) 7 Poltergeist (8.06M) 9 Hot Pursuit (1.40M) 11 Furious 7 (1.01M) 15 Adeline (0.57M) 2000 for each spot right, bonus of 3000 if all spots correct. Bonus 1: What will be the Friday accumulated gross for the top 3 films? 5000 26,622,607 Bonus 2: If you add up the drops for the films that finish in spots 2-3-4, to three decimal spots, what is your total? So your answer will be something like 175.668%. 5000 Movies 2-3-4 Were PP2, Tomorrowland, and MMFR, and their respective drops were 51.891%, 56.692%, 42.457%, which add up to 151.041%, though one could quibble over that 3rd decimal place depending on how you choose to do your rounding. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

Its ok, man. Its obvious to anyone paying attention that you're enormously engaged, just busy. Do what works for you, we're all having a blast. At least, those of us who didn't go too low with PP2 or too high with Tomorrowland. Edit - This is looking to be a very interesting week. 1) Will Spy make more in it's OW than Entourage does in it's first five days? *YES* 2) What film will be number one this weekend? *SPY* 3) Will the top 3 films gross more than 90 million for the three day? *YES* 4) Will Insidious make more than 3 mill for previews? *NO* 5) Will Entourage drop more than 28% on Thursday? *YES* 6) Will Spy increase on Saturday? *NO* 7) Will San Andreas fall more than 55.2%? *YES* 8) Will Mad Max increase more than 93.4% on Friday? *NO* 9) Will Pitch Perfect 2 increase more than 35% on Saturday? *NO* 10) Will Tomorrowland have the best increase in the top 10 on Saturday? *NO* 11) Will Poltergeist stay in the top 10? *YES* 12) Will Spy make more than 2.5 mill for Thurs previews? *YES* 13) Will Avengers increase more than 105% on Friday? *YES* 14) Will San Andreas drop more than 5% on Thursday? *YES* 12/14 3000 13/14 5000 14/14 10,000 What finishes in spots: 1 Spy 2 San Andreas 5 PP2 7 Tomorrowland 9 Aloha 2000 each and a bonus of 3000 if all spots are correct. Bonus 1: What will Entourage make for the 5 day? 5000 39.5M Bonus 2: What will Insidious make OW? 5000 24M Bonus 3 What will MM and PP2 combine to make this weekend? 5000 24.5M

I was kidding, in case it wasn't obvious. Having a strong player throw in the towel early would be awesome, speaking as a competitor. But as a fellow forum member, I'd note that a LOT of folks are in the same boat.

Yes, you should absolutely throw in the towel and just stop doing the weeklies. Its not like 30+ other people are saddled with the same thing. I don't see how you staying in the game could possibly benefit us. I mean, benefit you.

Originally I was going to just Abstain on this one and collect my 2,000 points. Then I saw Tomorrowland and hated it while noting the extremely sparse attendance. So I felt ok making it a "Less". Then a few days ago I did the math on AOU and I decided the chance of AOU making it was very slim so I rolled the dice a second time. Now I'm noting that something like 2/3 of BSG contestants are going with Less/Less/More/More/Less and its an interesting feeling. Risk aversion is the way to go, but if most of the rest of the competition goes for the full gamble, you start to wonder why so many people are reading the odds so differently.

Hmm. What's the multiple usually like on disaster films? They seem to generally be pretty good. A 50-55m OW suggests, what, 140-180m dom?

Wow for SA and PP2. I really thought TL would push past PP2 with all its family-ness. Also, ALO is is still doing better than I expected, albeit by a decreasing amount.

So, David Nix was right, is what you're saying.

China is weird that way. Surprising WB isnt even trying so far. What are they pushing instead?

Preview Thursday I saw MMFR with a buddy, which was disappointing because I'd tried to get a bunch of guys to see it as a group but most of them said they were busy. Then over the weekend, every single guy who couldn't make it texted me, saying they had read the reviews, were now fired up to see it, and wanted to know if I was planning on seeing it again. So, acting as the local MMFR sherpa or scout troop leader or whatever, I organized two trips to watch it, one last night (best post movie comment: "All of us driving out together feels like a really bad idea.") and the other Sunday night, perfectly matching your expectations.

Rock's greatness confirmed: SA Cinemascore > MMFR Cinemascore

Well, I'd hope so. I mean, the West Coast is the place that gets destroyed in the movie. Edit - I have to admit, I thought Aloha would do less than this. Yes, its got an amazing cast, but 60 seconds ago I saw my very first advertisement of any sort for Aloha. I'm a little shocked enough people even knew it was coming to buy that many tickets.

The question means what Baumer intends it to mean, and if none of us asked to clarify out of fear of then clarifying it for everyone else, thats on us not him.

Wow. That's not bad.