Wrath

Am I crazy or did like half the people making predicts not follow the directions?

1. Will Guardians make more than $130M? 1000 *YES* 2. Will Guardians make more than $150M? 2000 *NO* 3. WIll Guardians drop more than 15% on Saturday? 3000 *YES* 4. Will Guardians make more than 80% of the total gross of all films reported on BOM this weekend? 4000 *YES* 5. Will Friday account for at least 40% of Guardians' weekend gross? 5000 *YES* 6. Will Fate of the Furious drop less than 55%? 1000 *NO* 7. Will The Circle drop more than 60%? 2000 *YES* 8. Will Latin Lover stay about Baahubali? 3000 *YES* 9. Will Boss Baby increase more than 85% on Saturday? 4000 *YES* 10. Will the top 11 films all make more than $1M? 5000 *NO* 11. Will Gifted's PTA stay above $1,000? 1000 *YES* 12. Will Going in Style stay aboe Smurfs? 2000 *YES* 13. Will Free Fire make less than $75,000 for the whole weekend? 3000 *YES* 14. Will Logan stay above Colossal? 4000 *YES* 15. Will Power Rangers cross $85M by the end of the weekend? 5000 *YES* 16. Will Life have a PTA above $400? 1000 *YES* 17. Will Case for Christ have a PTA above $600? 2000 *YES* 18. Will CHuck have a PTA aboe $3,000? 3000 *YES* 19. Will 3 Generations have a PTA above $7,500? 4000 *YES* 20. Will Ghost in the Shell have a PTA above $500? 5000 *YES* 21. Will Guardians' Actuals be Higher than the official final estimates for the weekend on BOM? 1000 *NO* 22. Will Fate of the Furious' first Deadline weekend estimate be within 500k of the actual total? 2000 *YES* 23. Will any film in more than 100 theatres drop more than 80%? 3000 *NO* 24. Will the whole weekend total of every film be above $185M? 4000 *YES* 25. How many Hobbits will ride Groot into battle during Guardians 2? 5000 *I'm thinking pi. Or maybe cake." Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Guardians 2 make for its 3 day OW? 145M 2. What will Baahubali's Saturday gross be? 1.61m 3. What will The Circle's percentage drop be? 61% Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Latin Lover 5. Boss Baby 8. Going in Style 10. Smurfs 13. City of Z 16. China

Part A 1. Too High 2. Too Low 4. Too Low 6. Too High Part B 1. Which film not called Lowriders will be the lowest grossing? Diary 2. Which non-animated film will be the highest grossing? Snatched 3. Will a non-animated film on that list make the main games Domestic Top 15 list? No 4. Will any film double its predicted gross? No 5. Will any film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? No 6. Will the actual combined total gross for the 10 films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? Higher 7. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's best prediction? Cars 3 8. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's worst prediction? All Eyez 9. Will 3 or more of these films open in the number 2 position? Yes 10. Will 2 or more of these films open in 5th or lower? Yes

Ah, Numbers. I was worried about you at the end. Bad luck.

Yeah, but its all about expectations. Mad Mad: Fury Road marketing that had the seed lady front-and-center would be a little confusing. Why is the marketing for this bad-ass, heavy-action movie focusing on this 70 year old lady? Similarly, if you hadn't read the books but had a general idea of the story, you'd probably be expecting a genre-bending, rated R semi-western about this bad-ass gunslinger and his companions. You might be vaguely aware that there was a kid in the story, but having that kid be front-and-center in the marketing would be off-putting. Because the implications for what to expect from the movie, given that the marketing is focusing on this kid, might really fly in the face of the expectations you probably had for the tone and content of the movie prior to seeing the marketing. Its a tonal misstep.

To be fair, I agree that It will probably win easily over Dark Tower. Dark Tower is by far the more epic tale, and arguably has the more passionate fan-base. But "It" is much, much easier to sell. Its a much more conventional story and a lot easier for people to grasp (Evil clown kills people and lives in sewers, group of kids go after it), whereas the concept pitch for Dark Tower is like a page and a half long. Plus, I saw the trailer for "It" a couple weeks ago and that was scary as hell.

I thought Howard was still a producer. Is he still a producer in name, but in reality is effectively gone?

That's actually the plan. First comes the movie, then comes a 12-15 episode show on HBO with basically the same cast. Of course, that depends on how it does. If the movie bombs, possibly no show at all. If the movie or show break out, possibly multiple seasons.

Demonstrating your awesomeness!

As much of Wonder Woman as I can afford. Not sure how much that is.

No, he hates you still, he's just gotten better at hiding it. I think he's up to something with Goffe, what with the merger coming up, and I'm sure it doesn't have anything to do with toying with your affections before betraying you. This game is so much fun.

Poughkeepsie State, where box office results are predicted with the speed and savagery of a flying cougar. Edit- any chance we can get the flash fight bonus to apply to NEXT week's results?

The first time I ever played, iirc (which I probably don't) I was totally excited because I was like 8th after the Weeklies and maybe SotM's were counted. Of course, after the preseasons were added in (which I did actually do), I ended in like 24th...

Should have gone Under like everyone else... Edit - To be fair, I have no idea why the conventional wisdom happened to be right since it was pretty much a coin toss.

To me, the most entertaining part was where he ignored that CJohn living there is the majority of the reason people pay more attention to Portugese BO than, say, Italian BO (other than how weirdly late the Italians always seem to release stuff). Anyway, my ignore list was looking a little paltry.

Alrighty then.

Its relevant because one of the mods, who happens to be an active, knowledgeable and well liked poster, lives in Portugal. If you'd read the posts you might have been able to figure that out. Edit - I was also going to add a point about how ANY regional BO discussion (how do sell-outs look in LA? How's the East Coast?) are by definition not the entire picture, yet still somehow manage to be relevant. But Barnack did a good job of beating me to it.

Im guessing you didnt actually read the posts or you might have been able to figure that out for yourself.

Ok, thanks all.

Who was talking about the Australia to USA OW conversion ratio a while back? Wasn't it like 12 to 1 or something?

Always exceed expectations! Such as in the size of your crater!

You and me both. The likelihood that its trailer will FINALLY arrive with GotG 2 next week suggests we're not going to have much time to revisit our rankings.

Huh. I went to check on My Cousin Vinny as a counter example, and realized that IT is rated R as well. I'm no prude, and I'm generally aware of the rating rules, but every once in a while it still strikes me how bizarre it is that a movie can kill hundreds of people and have pretty strongly suggested sex and have it still be PG-13. But solid double-digit curse words will get you an R.

Yeah, seriously. I watched it with my wife and we loved it so much that she wanted to take our older daughter (who was like 10). Neither of us batted an eye at the idea of her seeing it. As my wife was looking into getting tickets, she was like "WTF? Chef was rated "R"? Seriously?" Until then, I wouldn't have guessed it was rated R at all and that rating was a topic of amused conversation for some time. My wife still totally took our older daughter to see it, and everyone thought it was great.