I think the impact of no competition is much bigger than that.
I mean I was comparing to when Venom had Sep 24 release date domestically and 16 Sep internationally. GA doesn't know the difference between MCU and Sony Marvel films, and as you know the hype for Venom 2 in many markets is quite insane.
Imagine it only had 2 weeks to itself before Venom 2 arrives internationally. I would argue that 400m worldwide final would have been a toss-up for Shang Chi if Sony didn't panic and kept changing dates. 😅 but now SC will almost certainly hit at least 430m worldwide.
With Bond, i do think 700m - 800m worldwide including China is gonna happen. The release date isn't bad just not as good as SC IMO. Just in Asia hubs - WoM in HK , Taiwan and Singapore from yesterday is very good - much better than SC i would say but it has Venom in 2 weeks (plus i told you about the COVID situation here in Singapore).