POTUS 2020

After seeing what EG did, I think $350m+ OW is possible with more screens. $1B would be tough unless there are a lot of repeat viewings with a 9.8 rating. Most likely, if well received, it falls between EG $628m and WW2 $854m .

The day before is the worst BO day of the year. I thought it was more of a family/home celebration day/eve. Like xmas eve is a slower day in domestic. Bad move like you said. Plenty of money to be made over 12 days

ODPS OD Shows Screens 12Day 2018 678m 1277m 390,000 50,700 7773m 2019 718m 1458m 510,000 60,000 7699m 2020 ??? ??? 580,000? 70,000 ??? A majority of the annual BO gains from 2015 to 16 to 17 to 18 was in CNY. 2019 saw CNY flat YoY and the year was heading down YoY when the Oct Holiday blew up and got the year up 5% in yuan, up 1% in dollars. There are nearly 40% more screens than 2 years ago, if the movies are good we could see a bump of 20-40%, which may be needed if 2020 is going to be up. If CNY is near flat again, it could be a sign that CBO has hit its soft ceiling. 2019 CNY OD was up 15% with 19% more screens, 30% more shows, but the 12 day total(7 holidays and 5 school-out days) was flat. Will addition screens/shows just boost OD again? or the totals as well. Will be interesting to watch and could determine the year or even decade's trend. CNY OD PS is nearing 200m with DC3 at 59% of total PS- at 115m, 30% of 295k shows listed with 5.5 days to go.

Extension ends on tues. Last minute movie goers have been showing up. Weekdays increased daily this week and Sat was 3m up 50% WoW. It will reach 863m/$123m

CNY OD PS DC3 71m PS. 60% of PS with 29% shows. The rest have 47m PS with # 2 and 3 at 12m PS each. Win/leap with 7m. The delay was useless. Commies just dont understand free markets. DC3 will crush OD, WoM will takeover on day 2.

Player Sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ab3hsLbx8w6977GEJw7Z_RaiJuNCk50Weirj-gao-Yc/edit?usp=sharing

And heading to $122m by the time CNY starts SW9 crossed $20m and will clear $21m Ip4 and SwoS both heading to 1.1b/$157m+ Adoring to 650m+ as Maoyan forecasted

Annual update Yuan BO up 5.4%. The year was saved by NZ and the Oct holiday. July censorship may have bolstered those films. BO in $s up just .9% Admissions per screen down 35% , 38.6k to 25.2k from 2015 to 2019 and nearly 10k admissions below the 15 year average. They need to stop building, we may see contraction at some point. Screens % Inc Adm(m) Adm Inc Adm p/sc BO Ym % Inc BO Yp/sc BO $m % Inc Tix Ave 2003 920 125 2004 1,514 64.6% 187 49.6% 2005 4,400 157 35,682 2,046 35.1% 465,000 250 33.7% $1.59 2006 4,700 6.8% 176 12.1% 37,447 2,620 28.1% 557,447 342 36.8% $1.94 2007 5,600 19.1% 195 10.8% 34,821 3,327 27.0% 594,107 438 28.1% $2.25 2008 5,700 1.8% 209 7.2% 36,667 4,342 30.5% 761,754 586 33.8% $2.80 2009 6,300 10.5% 263 25.8% 41,746 6,206 42.9% 985,079 873 49.0% $3.32 2010 7,800 23.8% 290 10.3% 37,179 10,172 63.9% 1,304,103 1,452 66.3% $5.01 2011 9,200 17.9% 370 27.6% 40,217 13,115 28.9% 1,425,543 1,929 32.9% $5.21 2012 14,000 52.2% 462 24.9% 33,000 17,073 30.2% 1,219,500 2,586 34.1% $5.60 2013 18,100 29.3% 612 32.5% 33,812 21,769 27.5% 1,202,707 3,400 31.5% $5.56 2014 23,600 30.4% 830 35.6% 35,169 29,639 36.2% 1,255,890 4,665 37.2% $5.62 2015 31,500 33.5% 1215 46.4% 38,571 44,000 48.5% 1,396,825 7,020 50.5% $5.78 2016 41,179 30.7% 1372 12.9% 33,318 45,710 3.9% 1,110,032 6,970 -0.7% $5.08 2017 50,776 23.3% 1620 18.1% 31,905 55,910 22.3% 1,101,111 8,200 17.6% $5.06 2018 60,079 18.3% 1765 9.0% 29,378 60,980 9.1% 1,014,997 9,239 12.7% $5.23 2019 69,800 16.2% 1765 0.0% 25,287 64,300 5.4% 921,203 9,319 0.9% $5.28 05 to 19 increase 1486% 22% 1024% 20% 34,947 3043% 29% 1,021,020 3628% 36% 364% 05 to 19 Average^ 05 to 19 Average^ Average^ 05 to 19 Average^ Average^ 05 to 19 Average^ 05 to 19 1,225,634 10 to 19^ From 4.5 years ago. It does look like its flattening under $10b. Perhaps a down 5% year is due like Domestic just had and slowly chopping higher from there Love quoting myself. Bigly(big league) call

Since last year was flat and screens up 40% since 2 years ago, 35% boost is possible if at least three movie are well received.

No movies listed for CNY PS on Maoyan. Maybe its blacked out for foreign IPs? Anyone know if PS have begun?

F2 beating SW9 on the dailies in both Japan and China now Funny to see Japan thread more active than China again. Only during Frozen 1 and 2. I guess we'll have to wait a few years for high activity again

Waited a few months to respond to you for year end data. A few things BO to GDP has normalized. BO now needs GDP to grow and its slowing. 2018 was up 4% w/o fees. 2019 was up 5% in yuan but just 1% in dollars. A long way to get to $11.5B at this pace Build all the screens they can but disposable income is limited and its far more limited in third and fourth tier cities where new screens are going up. Chart below proves this as they are just holiday goers. Blockbusters are few and far between at times, but if many come along, all make less. When there are none the BO is dead for months then WW2 or NZ explode to new levels. Interesting observation of growth from 2015 to 18 and 19. Screens have more than doubled but BO is up just 39% in 4 years including 6% fees added in(. All of that growth is in just 13 movies. 4 films during 11 days of CNY, 3 films during 3 days of DBF, 3 films during 8 days of Autumn Fest and the biggest local summer block buster; The top two SH's consume any HLWD growth. The new screens are just bringing in more people for the holidays or the occasional break out. The masses aren't showing up in larger numbers for the other 45 weeks of the year Screens Total BO(m) BO p/scr CNY DBF Autumn Fest Top Local non holiday film Top SH #2 SH BO w/o CNY..etc BO p/scr w/o CNY.. 2015 31,500 46,640 1,480,635 2,882 780 1,980 2,576 1,548 711 38,333 1,216,912 2018 60,000 61,000 1,016,667 7,773 1,078 1,760 3,100 2,390 2,012 42,887 714,783 2019 69,800 64,300 921,203 7,699 893 4,459 5,000 4,239 1,404 40,606 581,748 BO per screen down 38%(4th column) 1.48m down to 921k. A lot of the new ones must be losing money(in 4th tier cities) and some of the existing ones are probably struggling due to over saturation in 1st tier. Outside of the 7 weeks of holidays and a few blockbuster's 1st and 2nd weekends, (last column), BO p/scr is down 52%, 1.216m to 581k BO is close to flat from 15 to 19 outside of the 13 films(other 45 weekends). 38.3b to 40.6b or slightly down w/o fees. I'll stick with 2030+. Could be longer if their economy goes flat like Japan has after decades of huge growth . Another note. there are more middle aged people than youngsters. There will be less 20, 30 and 40-somethings in the years to come

@Olive please post annual update with screen count. thanks

it is opening on CNY in the US, interesting Last CNY was close to flat from 2018. If this CNY doesn't increase with the extra screens they could play Shang Chi next year as there will be room. They should start PS for CNY soon. 20 days out Last years CNY/OD was 1.45b/$215m

Sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17d25AWsMY5CQavZ1phGY4fzFA3M5zDA8uCHPY-HBiww/edit?usp=sharing

Made 9m on NYD. 829m total. Still on track for 840m/$120m 31m thursday 317m total. I think 450m more then CNY begins. Holiday lifts all movies. Even bad ones. SW9 trying for $20m, setting a high and virtually impossible bar for SWX

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17d25AWsMY5CQavZ1phGY4fzFA3M5zDA8uCHPY-HBiww/edit?usp=sharing

$120m. NYE/NYD plus rest of extended run(Jan 20th) will help it get to just there.

What @TigerPaw said plus 3 releases on the Mon the 31st will take 60% of shows. With SwoS and IP4 holding well(high PTA) they will strip the shows from SW9 and others. Daily BO for SW9 will drop below 100k. and not recover as we have recently seen with J2 F2 has had a good PTA and continues to hold a decent % of shows. SW9 will hit 115m on Sunday 115m/$16.3m and make very little after

SW9 Bad news: will lose 70% of shows on friday. Good news: it will clear $16m and beat Solo. Bad news: $17m out of reach F2 still on track for $120m

Looks like $125m to me.

Weekend legs were found. 3 years in a row. Coco, AQM and F2 I almost Jatindered

$16m is a good thing. China is still communist, sort of, they like to redistribute income. They take it away from Star wars and give to struggling movies like Resident Evil, Warcraft and Stallone/Schwarzenegger productions😄

Saturday Ip4 114m 305m/$43.5m OW SwoS 68m -10% WoW 535m total SW8 25.9m 86m/12.3m 5 Day OW. Still thinking $18-20m, $16m possible F2 8.7m +900% DoD -55% WoW 808m/$115m thru sunday

cat sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVY5OwVGYS5198FsjLqIPWehfBPMgh6fsL-DhLP4iPo/edit?usp=sharing