POTUS 2020

F2's PS and shows down 50% from last Saturday Expect 9m Saturday 7.5m Sunday. 806m/$115 Total Still on course for 850m/$121m or more

as expected probaby 26-28m tomorrow 90m/$13m 5 Day OW $18-20m Total J2 BO has died Total 283m, May reach 290m/$41.4m 1.67x OW IP4 OD 91m at 4.5x PS. Ratings matter

EG was PS super saturated Weekday openings had the same PSm as Fridays in the past. I doubt the PSm is over 3 tomorrow

4x PS on Friday after just 2.4x on OD? big call

PSm could stay flat or drop as the walkups dwindle, shows dropping from 84k to 50k. May see a flat Friday, At least SW9 has beaten EG in one category... OD PSm, but not by much

we'll see. it has a chance yes, as long as the show count is decent for the holidays Just 2.2x PS. Oh my. Crashing dailies are as much fun tracking popping daily BO Can the PSm drop tomorrow? and Sat $20m dead, Shall we go for $15m?

You think PS will just double tomorrow like MN's normally do? I was thinking 3x like an OD 4x on thur like you projected. If its 2x tomorrow, then I'm thinking 3x on thur

Why do you think 500m? I project final PS to be low 20s. OD 70m, OW 250m based on standard metrics SW9 Wed 7pm preview PS at 4.95m, will finish 5.5-6m with 30k+ shows. 18-22m Wed. Thur PS, OD, at 2.88m with 46k shows. Will probably finish with 5m+ PS. 20m+ OD. 5 releases total spread out on the 29th, 30th and 31st. It has 11days to make money @Olive or anyone else, with no Fri or Sat releases, but Sun, Mon, Tues releases, Are they turning weekend into workdays and M-W a holiday?

SwoS bumped Sunday and only down 50% today. Its a runner and will demand more shows this weekend. Could beat Ip4 with the way PS look. F2 will still get to have its shows on Saturday with a solid PTA over the weekend and no direct competition. Still on course for $120m+ SW9 could get buried if it doesn't get a good reaction on Wed. Im thinking under$30m total for now J2 will hit 285m on Thur, with 4 new releases and a strong holdover it will have very few shows. Just 10m more. 295m/$42m 1.7x OW

PS arent going to go up without the shows. I cant believe its just at 17k shows. I assumed 80k+ or just 25% would be the minimum PS are similar to HLWD. The ramp up is less steep at the end, 60% PS bump on the last day instead of 75% and the PSm is consistently a bit lower usually at 2.5-3x.

-22.7% now. -13% yesterday. call it 18% for the weekend. $7.8m. It needs to hold -10% next week or -15%(SW9 hit) followed by a flat week(bounce back post SW9 OW) to have any shot at $180m

School not out for Xmas eve and Day but BO does double. School was out 2 days last year, 31st/1st but saturday was a workday. See AQM dailies below NYE(mon) and NYD(tues) were 4x+ Wed. Coco had a similar trend Fri 33.4 10.2% -61.4% 1481 215.0 Sat 70.2 110.2% -57.3% 1551 225.2 Sun 58 -17.4% -53.2% 1609 233.6 Xeve 36.1 -37.8% -12.8% 1645 238.8 Xday 35.7 -1.1% -2.5% 1681 244.0 Wed 19.5 -45.4% -41.1% 1701 246.8 Thu 17.5 -10.3% -42.2% 1718 249.4 Fri 16.7 -4.6% -50.0% 1735 251.8 Sat 18.75 12.3% -73.3% 1754 254.5 Sun 43.4 131.5% -25.2% 1797 260.8 NYE 53.2 22.6% 47.4% 1850 268.5 NYD 50.9 -4.3% 42.6% 1901 275.9 Wed 11.5 -77.4% -41.0% 1913 277.6 Thu 9.7 -15.7% -44.6% 1922 279.0

7 made $95m, 8 made $66m. Will 9 drop? It will have a $10-14m OW but they can co exist as demos are mostly different here is F1 against Conan , Spidey and an adult drama making $13m on the weekend. not affected much 1 1 Frozen Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures $7,558,540 -6.1% 744 +144 $10,159 $118,594,135 7 2 - Thermae Romae II Toho $4,809,545 - 434 - $11,081 $4,809,545 1 3 - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension Toho $4,551,469 - 341 - $13,347 $15,967,656 2 4 - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony Pictures Releasing $4,105,577 - 763 - $5,380 $5,107,048 1

We saw F1 in Japan have steady drops midweek while it held flat on the weekends during week 5 through 10. If evening rate doesn't die stall, it will reach 20-21m today -33% WoW. Most importantly it has the second highest PTA behind Sky Fire. With SW9 opening on Wed and both Ip$ and SW Sat PS weak, its likely that F2 will hold 75% of its show next week also. $125m+ possible with todays performance J2 was down 84% WoW on Fri, Will be down -73% today. About -76% for the weekend. It will lose 90%+ shows next weekend and make very little. 290m/$41m total incoming. 1.69x OW. Sequels are not only not automatically rising with the market growth, but are often getting slammed. Add J2 to the list. The growth can be explosive if it resonates as F2 has with the base building over 6 years and increasing 150%.

I haven't looked at this much in the last 5 years, but what I gather is that F2 is holding -13% WoW. Not bad considering 6 new releases. Toho discount may affect it a couple %. We'll see tomorrow. Looks like $8m+ weekend. We need -10% or better next weekend. China is adding $70m, it would be nice to see Japan do $180m 2019/12/14 20:10更新 最新デイリー詳細速報（約20分毎更新） 順位 販売(前回比)　座席(消化率)　先週比　95分率　全日推定　映画作品タイトル名 *1　182386(+1841)　598972(.904)　*86.8%　35.2%　189680　アナと雪の女王２ *2　*42681(+1170)　225541(.837)　******　43.9%　*71092　屍人荘の殺人 *3　*42290(+*854)　215556(.802)　******　40.1%　*63001　ジュマンジ／ネクスト・レベル *4　*34078(+**54)　269748(1.00)　******　41.7%　*34106　映画 妖怪学園Ｙ 猫はＨＥＲ… *5　*29950(+*377)　143745(.809)　*59.7%　46.3%　*34235　ルパン三世 ＴＨＥ ＦＩＲＳＴ *6　*27982(+*235)　*85064(.858)　*85.6%　50.3%　*29892　午前０時、キスしに来てよ *7　*18422(+***0)　*26523(1.00)　******　*0.7%　******　アイドリッシュセブン ファン… *8　*14916(+***0)　*83286(1.00)　*72.0%　45.7%　*14924　映画 すみっコぐらし とびだ… *9　*14206(+***0)　*14944(.976)　******　*0.1%　******　宝塚歌劇 星組東京建物 Ｂｒ… 10　*13610(+*173)　101775(.831)　******　51.6%　*20923　カツベン！

Its going to 5 fold friday again Friday was down 50% WoW. Im thinking 16m Sat, 15m Sun Sat shows down just 25% WoW at 30k If it holds close to 50% next weekend as I expect, it will land at 800m on Sun the 22nd which was the end of the run with 7.5m on Sun. With ext, and if there is no direct local competition, and with an Xmas and NY's bump it could get to 850m/$121m $118-123m is the likely range for those tracking OS and WW

I assume it will get at least 100k shows on Wed, Sky Fire got 93k on thur and did 29m. If they list 20k shows per day we should see n 50% bumps or greater. but S50% S50% M50% T100% still doesnt get it very high though= 12m. Could see 75% Mon and and 125%+ Tue or its a dud, or its a weekend movie or not

this will be fugly https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u0BfB_me1O85gLTuY2G0KGsfVpLp8Tmm2Cgb6Jqspiw/edit?usp=sharing

That could backfire. They always give OD extra shows. They will have less shows on Friday now which could then hurt Saturday shows.

Softer Week over Week drops after a large Opening Weekend So it has a shot to drop 15% this weekend. I said early on it will be hard to gauge the total until the 3rd to 4th weekend. -15% shows a sign it could get over $180m. It will need several 10-15% WoW drops and 1 or 2 near flats to get there. A couple of 20% drops in the next few weeks will likely mean 150m-ish Something like this. F1's sweet spot was 7-8m for 10 weeks. Lets see if it can hold a while there with repeat viewers. WE 1 15.1m 2 13.3 3 9.5 4 8.1 5 7.3 6 7.2 7 7 8 6.3 9 6 10 5.1

PS Shows IP4 Fri 2.87m 39k Dec 20th SW9 Wed 830k 4.4k Dec 18 Thu 460k 4.7k Fri 450k 7.7k Sat 370k 3k There are a few SW fan boys in China. 830k PS with just 4.4k shows on a Wed on short notice is impressive. Too early to tell where it will land and we may not know until OW but it continues to have a good start. Hopefully they list 20k shows tomorrow

I'm amazed at how often under performers with a bad rating hold better on tues and wed than highly rated $100m+ movies Sky fire will take 26% of shows tomorrow with 10m PS J2 will lose 20% of its shows

make a little money before IP4 crushes it

Imdb has it as dec 13 but i dont see PS Skyfire PS are doing well thur-sat SW9 PS off to a decent start. 300-500k PS with just 2k-5k shows on wed thru sat. We should see 20k show listed by tomorrow evening Extpectations so low a surprise is more likely atp.

SW9 PS have begun!! Just 1000 shows listed with Y13,000 PS. Give it a few days Its up against Ip Man 4 which already has 2.42m PS with 35k shows Ip 3 made 700m/$110m+ in 2016 SW9 Finishes 1st day of PS at 52k with 2200 shows IP4 2.53m