POTUS 2020

No. Typical weekday demand burn is 15-20%. If tuesday is -5-10% then 2.5-3x OW is likely depending also on future competition and screen loss. Flat or bumped tuesday can lead to 5 to 10x OW which usually happens with smaller openers like Zoo Dangal Coco etc

Coco and zoo were new material which needs big WoM to boost the BO F2 has a 6 year fanbase now. RPO had under 9 rating and was able to to 3x OW if i recall correctly.. I just think the 130% bump meant something. Im sticking with $125-150m until tues.

Tues Wed Thur will have to hold - 5-10% to get to $150m

Typically the PSm increases again. Back when things were more consistent the PSm would be 3, 4, 5 on FSS. A 20-25% increase should be in order. PS at 39m. 20% increase will get it close flat.

Both sun and tues need to be flat or better for $200m. That shows WoM is spreading and preventing demand burn in the dailies.

Fri PSm 2.8 Sat PSm 3.6 +28% Looking for 4.5 tomorrow on 38m PS. Its been obeying traditional metrics, this increase normally happens MN 1m OD 73m Sa 169m Su 171m if so, tues will be interesting OW 414m/$59m 3 keys to a pop. Sat bump larger than normal. Check Sunday bumps. In play Tuesday holds flat or bumps. We'll see Which leads to a larger second weekend and a great run.

Wont know until we see the 3rd and 4th weekend holds. It will need to hold flat at $7.5 -8m from weekend 3 to weekend 12 like F1 to get to $250m - 14x. 10x for $180m we'll see 5-10% drops.

There are probably shows. Maoyan just stalled as it has done before. Are a lot of older women into this like on Japan? It could do well in the evening. maybe Elsa froze Maoyan. Its running at 8m per hour. If it can hold that run rate it will clear 160m +125% It can get to $200m if both Sunday and Tuesday are close to flat. Otherwise $125-150m looking good

yes 100% sat increase often happens for a toon based on season, the type and demo. 150-200% indicates a pop for any toon like Coco/Zoo did. The only time the PSm did not increase was EG due to saturation. The PSm should increase 25-33% bringing in 110-120% increase. Could lead to a flat Sunday and some legs. $55m OW $125-$150m total is a win. I think that is toon top 10 all time for CBO

player sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gvk9NS7cYUlx1hh0D8l6IGgwGfwk8hvuI5iE97IjBqw/edit?usp=sharing

its not a toon culture like japan or america. Both local and HLWD seldom resonate to the masses. lately 3 or 4 toons are in domestic's top ten, having comparable BO to SH's and other live action films. China now has 10 movies clearing $200m every year as domestic started doing 10 years ago but are averaging just 1 toon per year over 1b/$150m. Zoo was all time #1 for 3 years until NZ exploded, its not a HLWD toon issue PSm should increase by 25% tomorrow and PS are on track to be up 60%. That will bring Sat close to a 100% bump. Expect 4.75x Friday~ 75m OD just 3x PS 150m Sat 130m Sun 355m/$50.5m OW Well we forecasted mid 20s PS and a $50m OW several days ago. The metrics worked for a change😏

you mean $7m each day? $14m total? I dont think OW matters much. Weekdays will be interesting to gauge. 3rd weekend hold will be telltale.

remember its a toon. Sat bump will be 50-100% and sunday drops are softer F 85m S 128m +50% S 102m -20% T 315m/$45m

With a great rating it will Possible low to high: Final PS 26.1m. It had a standard 7 day PS run with 45% average daily gains, finishing with a +74% gain Low end- 3x PS and just a 50% Sat bump and average WoM 8.8 rating. 78m OD 280m/$40m OW High end 4x PS a 100% Sat bump with great WoM 9.5+, 104m OD 468M/$66m OW Im still thinking $50m~ OW

Yup. A toon can bump 100% on an OW Sat. Some closer to 50%. Depends on age demo and OD rush

I doubt there is any up 43% is within the norm, should be 75-80% tomorrow. 100% possible F2 1 day out 15m+ 43% Expect 26.5m final PS. 30m possible The PSm could be 4x. I wouldn't be surprised if it was under 3x. Most importantly is the rating. It will need a 9.5 to blow up a bit $50m OW still likely, but under $40m could happen if PS are heavy or not well received as we have seen with other movies lately.

F2 2 days out PS at 10.5m +50% at end of Tues still in line for 25-30m PS, $50m+ OW

What are the thoughts for F2 OW? $10m Fri/Sat $13m 3 day if it gets the seats or similar to F1'S OW? $7.5m/9.7m F1's XR was 6% stronger 102.5Y to $ vs 108.6 today

Frozen 2 OD PS at 7.16m up 39% Likely to be up another 40% to 10m tomorrow, 50% Wed and 75% Thurs for 26m. 30m PS possible with a stronger wed/thur 100m+ OD 370m/$53m OW likely at this point unless PS are front loaded like a teen romance flick since F1 did skew up to older girls and women which frontload big sometimes. PSm could be less than 3x in that case

And after IM3 did $120m, that became the upper end($120m-150m) for single SH movies until AQM and VNM broke out. In general, yes Im generalizing, most sequels have not been increasing since 2013-15. Im not speaking of quality or how it increased or not in other marketd, but that the BO growth has slowed and most of the gains have been in gotten in just a handful of movies, CNY and other holiday films, the top 3 summer releases and a few HLWD movies. The rest is close to flat. $30-50m had become common for toons by 2014 and its a common number this year. If @Gavin Feng is right and it has built a huge following since then it could explode. Otherwise it would go the same route as Mal2(9.1 rated) and barely increase like M2 even though BO is up $100% since 2014.

With Frozen 2 there may be daily tracking and posting. This thread blew up with F1. Thats when I joined BOT. We were projecting 11am numbers from Toho's market share. The weekends were virtually flat for months Mar 15-16 1 $7,531,463 - 598 - $12,594 $9,731,697 1 Mar 22-23 1 $8,530,751 +13.3% 596 -2 $14,313 $29,535,712 2 Mar 29-30 1 $8,569,604 +0.5% 596 - $14,378 $51,579,593 3 Apr 5-6 1 $8,238,087 -3.9% 600 +4 $13,730 $75,093,431 4 Apr 12-13 1 $8,286,116 +0.6% 599 -1 $13,833 $90,636,007 5 Apr 19-20 1 $8,046,563 -2.9% 600 +1 $13,410 $104,683,811 6 Apr 26-27 1 $7,558,540 -6.1% 744 +144 $10,159 $118,594,135 7 May 3-4 1 $11,037,689 +46% 739 -5 $14,935 $143,207,359 8 May 10-11 1 $7,259,605 -34.2% 703 -36 $10,326 $166,953,747 9 May 17-18 1 $7,951,805 +9.5% 670 -33 $11,868 $181,228,459 10 May 24-25 1 $6,868,097 -13.6% 650 -20 $10,566 $194,123,636 11 May 31-Jun 1 1 $7,462,133 +8.6% 635 -15 $11,751 $207,749,319 12 Jun 7-8 1 $5,781,224 -22.5% 601 -34 $9,619 $218,470,155 13 Jun

Honey. He was asking about dollars. Nevermind F2 O/U at $150m ? Should be fun to watch the dailies for a while. Who's in charge if tracking these days?

It does to Disney and international BO followers XR changed is the simple answer.

Im with ZeeSoh on this. 50%+ gain today should lead to mid 20s final PS. 100m OD 350m$50m OW possible. PS needs to increase 45-50% sun thru tues to get there. F1 held well WoW w decent WoM. It should be well received. Many sequels havent improved lately, M2, T6, A dogs purpose etc. It would be nice to see F2 double F1.

There you go https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12PLNyaSw7jsw7X3QpSQ6OE3cTPl9V1-X204hKwDZXJM/edit?usp=sharing