POTUS 2020

From Wed to Friday the show drop will be 75%+ but likely to be 85%+ WoW as it is losing shows daily with its weak PTA. Today's BO drop looking to be -20%. There is a Thursday release with 6m PS. Could see 40%+ drop for J2 DoD. I think 2nd weekend will be down 85-90% WoW. It has a shot to come in as low as 1.5x OW SW9 PS have begun!! Just 280 shows listed with Y4000 PS. Give it a few days Its up against Ip Man 4 which already has 2.42m PS with 35k shows Ip 3 made 700m/$110m+ in 2016

99.44%

Looks like today will bump and the weekend (sat-sun) will be down less than 60% after all. 800m/$114m looking good w/o ext They are opening SW9 against IP4 which already has 1.3m PS. They threw that one away. SW9 not listed for PS yet

50/50 is my guess, they were regularly giving extensions to anything that would make 20m more but lately they have been iffy. @Olive @Gavin Feng? True Just $36m is possible

j2 coming in flat, thats better than expected? doesn't get much worse except for power rangers. expect -33% tomorrow and down 90% next weekend which is good for F2. F2 coming in at 31m -65% WoW, I thought -50-60% would have happened but the new releases took a lot of shows. Next weekend is lighter in releases and PS, with F2's high PTA it should retain a better % of shows. Likely Projection Sun 25m 729m Tot M-F 15m 744m S-S 27m 771m -50% WoW M-F 7m 778m S-S 13m 791m/$113m 5th and last weekend w/o ext Ext 50m+ 845m/$120m+ possible

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m2rPTREFjn-tuHG8P97dkDELGsSL7bh6XVmogcAjV6g/edit?usp=sharing

If its PTA continues to hold(and gets ext) up it could make 50m+ from dec 25th (small bump) and dec31/jan1 (bigger bump) and get to mid 800s/$120m. AQM managed to make 200m+ from dec 25th to jan2 Coco made 100m Both were thought to crushed by new releases but their high PTA kept them in theaters

Maybe 730m by tomorrow night. At 20m already today 694m total. It has by far the highest PTA with 18% rev and 10% shows. New releases are close to flat rev% to show% or worse Bodes well for a good hold next week. With a possible ext and holiday bump 800m+ still on table. 775m$100m floor for now

They gave the new releases 85% of shows, the highest I've ever seen for just 120m in BO J2 with just 61m for OD, a little over 3x PS. Tomorrow PS looking weak. Won't bump much, $26-28m OW. KO and F2 took a hit just a few % of shows. They will double up on shows tomorrow. F2 PS up 300%+ Chinese audience has matured, its treating many sub par sequels like the rest of the world now.

J2 having a PS run this week like an 80m+ PS run. Less than 30% bumps Mon-Wed and less than 70% today, unusual. Maybe Maoyan is off an we get a 4+ PSm. Otherwise it looks like low $30m's for OW. PS slowing down and will finish below 19m at 3am

Im not much of a forecaster. Cant say until PS start Is BW expected to break out like VNM and AQM instead falling into the usual 700-1000m range?

J2 PS at 9m for tues mite. Not bumping 40% daily. PS may finish low 20s. On track for $35-40m OW unless the PSm is higher than recent releases(3.5+) or a high rating

KO $30-40m, need to see weekday holds if it can do 40m F2 $120m+ if it holds -50% against J2, which I think it will. 6 releases took 75% of shows and made 90m on Fri. J2 and other releases may take 70% of shows and make 120m. F2 should hold well again come saturday

J2 PS will get over 5m tonight. I project mid 20s, possibly 30m final PS. $40-50m OW J1 OD 74m OW 268m/$41.5m Tot 492m/$76m @ ¥6.45 to $1

100%+ increase for KO to 40m. That's huge compared to the normal 30%. Lets see what it does tomorrow, typical drop is 28-30% Again we had premature estimation and a doom and gloom midweek. F2 90m sat down 46% WoW. thats a great hold these days even for a toon Worst case 725-750m, around 2x OW, $103-107m Best case. It holds well next weekend(sat) -50-60%. and bounces back to -45% then legs to the holidays where we saw coco and AQM get a bump the last 2 years. A movie that holds 45-50% for several weeks will double its opening week(447m). That brings F2 close to 900m/$128m or 2.4x opening weekend(373m)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pcmK6hKSwouXv3UTjaMz8cImKZe3FANxtALGSpLyqfY/edit?usp=sharing

Its possible, generally an extension doesn't add much, a few percent perhaps. But if it does hold -50% tomorrow and well against next weeks releases it could leg out into the holidays and pick up enough to get over $105m

FFHS to $200m was looking shaky. It legged out. i bet you a one yuan it gets over $100m. Friday 28.7m. Sat PS are en route to triple. Maybe 85m tomorrow down less than 50% WoW. great hold. If so 703m/$100m locked. 2x OW not dead yet, just mostly dead

25.5m and counting at 8pm. Very good friday bump with so much show loss. Shows increasing from 14% today to 24% sat and 26% sun as the new releases fade. 75m sat 60m sun. 20% drop like last week or better with increased shows 610m total on Sun. 645m on thur. 195m week. It should get to 703m/ $100m even with a 75% drop next week.

Some thought it made no difference. Myself and others thought it did cut the legs. the 12th weekend nearly matched the first after up and down fluctuations from 2-10%. then the DVD announcement happened and we saw a 22% drop followed by 33%. No way it holds flat then those drops. If demand burn started to kick in at weekend 13 and we would have seen steady 10% drops for a few weeks, I thought $300m was in the bag. Look at SA, the weekends continued to hold tight for many more weeks. If it ran out like SA did for months on end I thought $400m was a possibility. @edroger3, I already know your reply.

It could get close to 150m. shows at 14% for tomorrow but back up to 24% on Sat. Expect a 200% bump. Next weekend has bigger competition including J2. 703m/$100m could be missed unless it finds some Dec legs. Shocked it couldn't do 2x Ow, its not an SH movie HLWD not catching a decent run since EG

F1 weekdays did drop after 2nd week even though the weekends held flat.

Friday will suck but expect a 130% bump again on Sat as it gets shows back. It should clear 2x with better than 15% drop today.

added a few columns. anyone can edit https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zdn-5nZ0ir-Vtt_MT2E_Ue4vVlEHUhdlUmLhL1GMK0k/edit?usp=sharing I assume Tuesday has a typical demand burn of a few percent. whereas F1 went up on tues and went up considerably more tues to thurs. Lets see how f2 does tomorrow F1 F2 Adm K USD K $ +/- % Adm K USD K $ +/- % F2 vs F1 $ Fri 244 2.170 232 2.900 33.64% Sat 290 3.619 66.77% 615 7.688 165.10% 112.07% Sun 319 3.941 8.90% 642 8.025 4.38% 101.25% Mon 99 1.243 -68.46% 150 1.875 -76.64% 51.52% Tue 107 1.348 8.45% Wed 214 2.694 99.85% Thu 133 1.675 -37.82% Fri 339 4.312 157.43% Sat 335 4.242 -1.62% Sun 359 4.288 1.08%

yes 75-82% monday drop for toons anyone notice what PS were last night? midpoint has been a moving target lately