POTUS 2020

Maoyan adds to dailies for a couple of weeks. I always have to update my charts at the end of a run. Thurs the 29th adjusted to 28.58/7.1446=$4,000,200

PS down just 52% for Mon. If it can make 24m -59% and in turn make 78m for the midweek- its 265m for the week- 1260 total. If the following 2 weeks hold -58%= 158m and 10m the last weekend. 1428m total. Just above 1425m/$200m Average XR is 7.125 A couple big releases the following weekend though. It'll be close.

pLayer sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12PLNyaSw7jsw7X3QpSQ6OE3cTPl9V1-X204hKwDZXJM/edit?usp=sharing

PSm increased. 56-58m Fri. 190m sounds about right. Shall do 250m for the week, 1235m total next thur. HS still aiming for 1420m/$200m NZ will overcome next Sat BO.

NZ could uptick Y600k and get there The new releases will open to just 25m in total but has 42% of the shows NZ PS is flat, FFHS PS is down 13%, they lost 30% of their shows, they also have 42% but will make 80m. They will get a lot of shows back on Sat and look for bigger bumps- NZ 70%, FFHS 50% NZ is at 4600m, it will hold -28% this weekend. 4900m/$700m locked FFHS finished the week at 982m/$138m. It will make 160m this weekend-77%. Last weekend was updated to 709m/$100m

All the micro analysis of the holds. I love it. Lets put it to bed. No competition for 2 weeks FFHS $200m locked NZ $700m locked SW9 $10m doubtful

Wont lose many shows but FF's don't bump like SH's. I expect 20% fri, 40% sat, -27% sun FF8 bumped 33%F 60%S but that wasnt summer

On track to reach 37m by 1650, yesterdays mid point. 74m -18% DoD $200m locked

Thats average for a summer Monday for this demo. It skews older so less matinees . The tell tale hold is tomorrow O/U 20% will be bad/average

Could be 430 or later with strong evening shows. FFs skew older than SHs. They will take it in after work. Its running at 5.5m ph. Double that from 630-9pm. 85-87m -55%

Over 2x, $200m+, has a good shot. Summer weedays this week and 3 very small releases next weekend with little show loss. It just needs to hold better than -20% on Tues and Wed

Its going to be real close to 190 Sun, ¥709,620,000m/$100,000,000.00m OW

I would say 30m before Sat. 1450. Which is now 92m @ 1450 184m Sun -24% 705m/$99.5m OW Edit You read my mind Salty Nephew

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12PLNyaSw7jsw7X3QpSQ6OE3cTPl9V1-X204hKwDZXJM/edit?usp=sharing

I read that school starts first Monday of sept. Thats why i put 50%. Could drop 55%. It should drop 65% the following Monday It should average 16m per hour for the rest of the day, getting it close to flat. Not bumping has less to do with quality of the film, more so that 190k shows allows a large part of the fanbase to rush OD. OD/OW multied have been dropping with the rise of show counts. FF7 had 80k shows im 2015 FF8 had 163k ib 2017 FF8.5 has 190k EG had 225k

A possible scenario, could improve Mn 35m Fr 245 Sa 245 Su 174 -29% OW 699m/$$99m Mo 87 -50% Tu 70 -20% We 57 -18% Th 47 -18% Wk1 960m/$135m Fr 57 +20% no competition Sa 74 +30% Su 50 -30% WE2 181m/$25m -74% M-Th 53 Rest 70 Total 1264m/$178m -50%~ from FF8 and FF7 in yuan

I'll be damned. Evening was strong and Maoyan didnt stall. OD 243m PS look weak for tomorrow, not sure if it will bump, but for now $100m+ OW looks feasible. NZ 40m -41% WoW. Great hold, On track for $700m

Got to be a glitch. He wouldn't have moved it before 1159pm Thur. That was the old-old time

Hi Andy. Predictions are closed, not able to input, its 1142 pm PDT Thu

FFHS 100m @1300 I get 200-210m If sat is flat with this rating 600m/$85m I would say $85-95m for now

PS at 68.2 and counting. Going with a standard PSm of 3.33 and standard daily moves MN 35m Fr 233m 3.33x PS Sa 256m 10% Summer Sat bump Su 205m 20% Summer Sun drop Total 729m/$103m @7.08 yuan to $1 Could be a few percent higher or 20% lower with a bad rating/PSm

The PS run rate is getting furiously faster At 2m per hour and should continue to increase. 66-70m at 3am. 90%~ final day increase. Caveat, Maoyan could stall Assuming it doesn't stall, and if it can do 3.3x PS, $100m+ weekend possible with a decent rating, 9.1+ <$80m with a 2.5 PSm is also still possible Ill go optimistically with $95-105m because there is a bit of doom and gloom and saltiness

It could open with just $80m based on weak PS and do 1.8x with an 8.8, $144m. Maoyan PS has been erratic for months. It could open $80m-100m+, then its up to the rating. I wouldn't put money on any prediction at this point

Thats low for an FF movie. PS not ramping up well, it needs 9+ to do well NZ held -8% yesterday at 50m. -6% today at 47m. Probably 44m tomorrow. 4300m/$614m+ total tomorrow, ahead of my projection. It lost 40% of its shows last friday but still bumped 10%. It will lose 40-50% of shows this Fri. If it can just hold flat to thursday it will be down just 34% WoW. If so, I give it 50/50 it clears 4900m/$700m. Slight chance for 5000m$714m. it will lose summer weekdays though on Sept 2 Never say cant clear $400m $500m $600m $700m in CBO. Ya never know!

You're sounding salty😆 He is correct in talking about BO market as a whole. There is only so much disposable income in a movie going population. A few great films can get a few more people out or get some people to go a few more times than normal. But when a few huge films hit the market, other films suffer, when a blockbuster disappoints or gets censored a vacuum is created and other movies thrive. NZ may have done less if the censored films hit the market. Im sure millions of chinese can only or wish to afford 1 movie in a month or a season. I went to 1 movie a month when i was a kid. In summer of 75., in June July August, i saw Jaws Jaws Jaws. Other movies suffered that summer. If this is a huge year with 8 one billion dollar films, why is domestic and china down YoY to date? As you can see below domestic mostly floats up or down a few percent. In 2014 only 2 movies could clear 300 and none over 400m, the year was down 5% from 2013(3movies over 400m). In 2015 we had AoU 450m, JW 650m SW7 650m (within 2015). These top 3 made 500m more than 2013's top 3 and the year was up just 200m, 2% from 2013 It is a zero sum game with 5% give either way. ear Total Gross* Change Tickets Sold Change # of Movies Total Screens Avg. Ticket Price Avg. Cost^ #1 Movie 2019 $7,390.3 - 820.2 - 482 - $9.01 - Avengers: Endgame 2018 $11,893.1 +7.4% 1,305.5 +5.8% 878 - $9.11 - Black Panther 2017 $11,072.2 -2.7% 1,234.4 -6.2% 740 - $8.97 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi 2016 $11,377.5 +2.2% 1,315.3 -0.4% 737 - $8.65 - Rogue One 2015 $11,129.4 +7.4% 1,320.2 +4.1% 706 - $8.43 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens 2014 $10,361.3 -5.2% 1,268.2 -5.6% 707 - $8.17 - American Sniper 2013 $10,924.6 +0.8% 1,343.7 -1.3% 689 - $8.13 - Catching Fire 2012 $10,837.6 +6.5% 1,361.5 +6.1% 669 - $7.96 - The Avengers 2011 $10,174.2 -3.7% 1,283.0 -4.2% 601 - $7.93 - Harry Potter / Deathly Hallows (P2) 2010 $10,565.6 -0.3% 1,339.1 -5.2% 538 - $7.89 - Toy Story 3 2009 $10,595.5 +10.0% 1,412.7 +5.3% 521 - $7.50 - Avatarp