MikeQ

Barbenheimer still killing it. First Tue-to-Tue Drops for Biggest July Openers (80m+) Barbie: -41% (est.) The Secret Life of Pets: -41.0% Oppenheimer: -42% (est.) Despicable Me 2: -43.3% The Lion King: -49.9% Spider-Man: Homecoming: -49.9% The Dark Knight Rises: -50.6% POTC: Dead Man’s Chest: -52.4% Minions: -52.4% Thor: Love & Thunder: -52.8% Minions: The Rise of Guru: -53.2% The Dark Knight: -53.9% Spider-Man 2: -54.8% Transformers: Dark of the Moon: -54.9% Black Widow: -55.6% Harry Potter 7 (Part 2): -57.9% Spider-Man: Far From Home: -61.4% (opened on a Tue) Peace, Mike

Beautiful drops for both Barbie and Oppenheimer. For Barbie, what an exceptional drop for its size - when looking at $100M Friday openers that weren't cushioned by a holiday second weekend, she is among the best, especially for today. Best Second Weekend Drops for 100M+ Friday Openers without Holiday Second Weekend: Top Gun: Maverick (2022): -28.9% Spider-Man (2002): -37.8% The Jungle Book (2016): -40.4% Barbie (2023): -42.6% Wonder Woman (2017): -43.3% Black Panther (2018): -44.7% Finding Dory (2016): -46.0% Alice in Wonderland (2010): -46.0% Toy Story 3 (2010): -46.2% Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023): -47.6% Beauty and the Beast (2017): -48.3% Jurassic World (2015): -49.0%* The Avengers (2012): -50.3% The Batman (2022): -50.4% Toy Story 4 (2019): -50.6%^ It (2017): -51.3% The Secret Life of Pets (2016): -51.3% The Dark Knight (2008): -52.5% Thor: Ragnarok (2017): -53.5% *2nd weekend was not technically a holiday weekend, but it did benefit significantly from Father’s Day (almost flat on Sunday) ^2nd weekend wasn’t a holiday weekend for US/NA, but it was for CANADA (Canada Day weekend arguably boosted its Sunday gross) If we expand this list to 60M+ openers, we see that Oppenheimer is also among the best second weekend drops for a film of its size. Notice that most of the films on the list below are animated family films and/or of an earlier era of box office when Thursday previews were not as dominant or did not exist (and therefore second weekend drops naturally weren’t as hefty). A -44% drop in this day and age, for a live-action film, is excellent. It may jump into the top 15 if its Sunday drop is overestimated, which I think could be the case. Best Second Weekend Drops for 60M+ Friday Openers without Holiday Second Weekend: Monsters Inc (2001): -27.2% American Sniper (2014): -27.6% The Incredibles (2004): - 28.7% Top Gun: Maverick (2022): -28.9% Zootopia (2016): -31.6% Inception (2010): -32.0% Finding Nemo (2003): -33.7% Up (2009): -35.2% The Passion of the Christ (2004): -36.5% Spider-Man (2002): -37.8% The Jungle Book (2016): -40.4% Inside Out (2015) -42.1% Mission: Impossible - Fallout (2018): -42.3% Barbie (2023): -42.6% The Grinch (2018): -42.9% Wonder Woman (2017): -43.3% Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted (2012): -43.5% Cars (2006): -43.9% Oppenheimer (2023): -44.0% Kung Fu Panda (2008): -44.2% Peace, Mike

That 27.6% Saturday-to-Saturday drop for Barbie blows my mind. Peace, Mike

In box office terms, a "holdover" is a film that opened on a previous weekend/week - as opposed to an "opener" that opened on the weekend/week in question. Peace, Mike

I don't think so. Looking like around 90M, give or take, based on Saturday projections. (If that pans out, I have the right to brag, because I predicted this, and I'm not often right. 😜) FRI: 29M SAT: 32.5M (+12%) SUN: 28.6M (-12%) TOTAL: 90.1M Peace, Mike

It's gonna have like a 45% weekend drop (maybe better) from a huge 82.5M opening weekend - and after the monstrous weekdays it had. It's a terrific number, no matter how you slice it. Did we want more muted weekdays just to make the weekend appear better? Peace, Mike

I don't foresee see $100M+ for Barbie. If it follows The Dark Knight from here, it will hit $94.1M for the weekend (which is already an incredible -41.9% drop). That, for me, is kinda best-case-scenario-ish, since I can imagine a bit of a softer Friday jump (+35%) for Barbie. Day Barbie The Dark Knight FRI 70.5M 67.2M SAT 47.8M (-32.2%) 47.7M (-29.1%) SUN 43.7M (-8.6%) 43.6M (-8.5%) MON 26.1M (-40.3%) 24.4M (-43.8%) TUE 26.0M (-0.4%) 20.9M (-14.8%) WED 23.0M (-11.5%) 18.4M (-11.9%) THU 20.6M (-10.4%)* 16.5M (-10.4%) FRI 29.1M (+41.1%)* 23.2M (+41.1%) SAT 35.4M (+21.7%)* 28.3M (+21.7%) SUN 29.6M (-16.3%)* 23.7M (-16.3%) WKD #2 TOTAL: 94.1M (-41.9%) *If follows TDK For now, I'm thinking 90M give or take. That said, I hope I'm wrong (I often am 😅). Definitely would love to see a weekend over Mario's 2nd weekend of 92.35M. And $100M+ would be mind-blowing... Peace, Mike

This movie resonates and lingers in the way that great movies do, allowing for more discovery as you reflect on it. It is impressive the way Gerwig effortlessly uses Barbie to say something about the way girls grow up and realize the world isn't what they expected it would be - and it's full of impossible contradictions. And that boys become men who are constrained by cultural pressures around masculinity - often unable to forge an identity for themselves outside of it. Who are we, really, outside all of these expectations? "What was I made for?" And she delivers all of this in a hilarious package - smart, ridiculous, irreverent, self-aware, but ultimately grounded in something totally sincere and intuitive to all of us in this existence we live. It is a joyous film that has fun looking at these complexities of life. In this sense, I'm not surprised that the movie has exploded and is resonating with folks. Anyone can take something away from this film. But hearing just how giddily and freely women at my showing were laughing and responding to it, including friends of mine who I went with... that was beautiful. Barbie is a singular experience that I feel like we could have only gotten from Gerwig. Peace, Mike

I highly, highly recommend Succession. It works on all levels - top tier television. Side note: I also love Severance, and appreciate that incredible finale. I eagerly await a season 2. Peace, Mike

Barbie: 27M (-38%) Oppenheimer: 13M (-44%) If these numbers hold, those are some insane Monday drops - especially coming off of superb Sunday drops that were only -8.6% (Barbie) and -11.7% (Oppenheimer). Surely these two will be coming down to earth during the week? Would love to see some strong second weekend drops for each of them. Peace, Mike

Yes! This weekend is one for the record books - will likely be even better with actuals, assuming Barbenheimer increases with better Sunday holds for each. This is also the first July weekend to join the "weekends with 2 films 50M+" club - and they're both openers. What an exciting weekend it has been. Weekends with 2 films 50M+ 80M+ July 21-23, 2023 (both openers) Barbie — 155.0M Oppenheimer — 80.5M June 22-24, 2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 148.0M Incredibles 2 — 80.3M June 19-21, 2015 Jurassic World — 106.6M Inside Out — 90.4M 60M+ June 21-23, 2013 (both openers) Monsters University — 82.4M World War Z — 66.4M Nov 29-December 1, 2013 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 74.2M Frozen — 67.4M May 28-30, 2004 Shrek 2 — 72.2M The Day After Tomorrow — 68.7M December 25-27, 2009 Avatar — 75.6M Sherlock Holmes — 62.3M 50M+ June 10-12, 2022 Jurassic World: Dominion — 145.1M Top Gun: Maverick — 51.9M May 25-27, 2007 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End — 114.7M Shrek the Third — 53.0M May 10-12, 2013 Iron Man 3 — 72.5M The Great Gatsby — 50.1M May 10-12, 2019 Avengers: Endgame — 63.3M Pokémon Detective Pikachu — 54.4M June 9-11, 2023 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts — 61M Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — 55.5M June 27-29, 2008 (both openers) Wall-E — 63.1 Wanted — 50.9 June 8-10, 2012 (both openers) Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted — 60.3M Prometheus — 51.1M June 17-19, 2022 Jurassic World: Dominion — 59.2M Lightyear — 50.6M June 26-28, 2015 Jurassic World — 54.5M Inside Out — 52.3M December 29-31, 2017 Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 52.5M Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle — 50.1M Peace, Mike

Barbie is an extraordinary movie. The hilarious, ridiculous, joyous nature of this film shines through constantly as it layers in the nuances and contradictions of our gendered existence, for women and men. The movie feels intuitive, not preachy. It’s both slapstick and high brow comedy. It’s smart and ridiculous. It’s self-aware and sincere. It’s funny and moving. I would love to see Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. What a splendid experience - both in terms of the film itself and the buzz and vibe at the theatre. I need to see it again. For now, I’m looking forward to part two of ‘Barbenheimer’ next week from another visionary director. Peace, Mike

$30M+ in previews for Barbenheimer is pretty special. I know we're talking two movies here, but this much in combined previews for films that aren't action/comic book/Star Wars/Harry Potter films (that dominate the top previews list) is remarkable. Peace, Mike

You dodged a bad match there - 'Barbie' indirectly doing good in the world. Peace, Mike

I'm hoping for a combined total of $228.4M+ for Barbenheimer, as this would be the greatest sum for two big films (both $50M+) on a weekend (see spoiler box for the stats). BOP's predictions for the weekend are 158.5M (Barbie) and 64.7M (Oppenheimer) for a total of 223.2M. 👀 (So close... please over-perform Barbenheimer. *fingers crossed*) Peace, Mike Weekends with 2 films 50M+

Welcome to every aspect of life for minorities. (i.e. you nailed it) Peace, Mike

These reviews are terrific. I'm particularly happy to hear that for many the film has emotional resonance. My favourite Nolan films are those that succeed on an emotional level. We already know his craft is excellent in all of the other ways. When is the last time that we had two critically acclaimed films opening on the same weekend with both looking to make a significant splash at the box office? This is such a treat. Peace, Mike

I would hesitate to say "sure thing". I'm feeling increasingly more comfortable about the potential for Best Picture, Screenplay, and Supporting Actor. Would love to see Gerwig get in for Director, but as of now, I'm expecting: Scorsese and Nolan (would be surprised if either aren't nominated), and Jonathan Glazer, Celine Song, and Denis Villeneuve. This could very much change over the remainder of the year, though. I think there is very little chance of Margot Robbie getting in for Best Actress, personally - but who knows. Peace, Mike

Terrific reviews. It looks like we’ll also get glowing reviews for Oppenheimer, and maximizing the potential for a box office explosion this weekend. Very exciting! While it’s early, with these strong reviews (with a high average rating), Barbie is maximizing its chances of being nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. The film looks like it will have that combination of being “smart”, a box office bash, and having cultural impact, that the Academy often loves to recognize. That Greta Gerwig is the name director behind it helps, too, as does some buzz behind Gosling, etc. Not a sure thing by any means, but its chances remain strong. Peace, Mike

Reactions are terrific. I’m so psyched for this and Barbie - their double header weekend gives me faith in cinema. Also hoping for $200M+ opening with the two combined. Peace, Mike

Early reactions are promising, though it’s hard to know for sure until reviews arrive. I suspect RT will be certified fresh, which I think is all it needs at minimum to really explode at the box office. More than that, though, what I’m reading is promising for me actually liking the film. I’m hoping it will become a comedy classic with a high rewatchability factor. I’m excited to do a double feature with Barbenheimer. Genuinely looking forward to both films, and I can’t remember the last time I’ve had a weekend like this where I’m eagerly anticipating two major openers on the same weekend. Peace, Mike

With the studio estimates into Monday, Guardians Vol. 3 sits at $355.28M and has hit a 3+ multiplier. It's only the third live action CBM sequel in the 21st century to achieve this feat, along with The Dark Knight and Spider-Man: No Way Home. Pretty awesome. Best Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Friday Openers: Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier) Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (6.20) Aquaman (2018) — 67.9 million (4.94) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00) Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (3.56) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) Joker (2019) — 96.2 million (3.49) Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (3.49) Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47) The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38) MIB 3 (2012) — 54.6 million (3.28) Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23) Ant-Man (2015) — 57.2 million (3.15) Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) — 260.1 million (3.09) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023) — 118.4 million (3.00)^ Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00) ^Run still ongoing Peace, Mike

It's pretty cool to think that we could potentially have two $50+ million openers in a weekend with Oppenheimer & Barbie. That would put the two of them among the best weekends for two openers opening well on the same day. You have to go back 10 years to find the last weekend with two $50+ million openers: June 21-23, 2013 Monsters University — 82.4M World War Z — 66.4M And before that, there are only two other weekends to have achieved this feat: June 8-10, 2012 Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted — 60.3M Prometheus — 51.1M June 27-29, 2008 Wall-E — 63.1 Wanted — 50.9M Another reason I think Barbie/Oppenheimer would be an impressive double opener is because all of the above are a combination of family animated + action/horror film. But it remains to be seen if both Oppenheimer & Barbie can achieve $50M+ openings... Peace, Mike

I hear you. There are earlier Wes Anderson films I really like, but I must admit he has lost me. And I also say that with respect to Wes Anderson fans. Movies like The Royal Tenenbaums and The Life Aquatic have heart and an emotional beat. Nowadays, it feels like every actor in a Wes Anderson movie is trying to do the same Wes Anderson style deadpan delivery, devoid of anything dynamic or emotionally compelling. I'm concerned that Asteroid City is another of his recent films that is overstuffed with characters, lacking humanity, and will leave me feeling disconnected, again. I see it this weekend; maybe I'll be surprised. Peace, Mike

This is the 16th time we've had a weekend with two $50M+ grossers. It does occur the most in June (9 out of 16). It's interesting to me that we've never seen it happen in July. But maybe that's only surprising to me because I'm Canadian, and schools here don't even get out until July (and go back until September). Weekends with 2 films 50M+ 80M+ June 22-24, 2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 148.0M Incredibles 2 — 80.3M June 19-21, 2015 Jurassic World — 106.6M Inside Out — 90.4M 60M+ June 21-23, 2013 (both openers) Monsters University — 82.4M World War Z — 66.4M Nov 29-December 1, 2013 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 74.2M Frozen — 67.4M May 28-30, 2004 Shrek 2 — 72.2M The Day After Tomorrow — 68.7M December 25-27, 2009 Avatar — 75.6M Sherlock Holmes — 62.3M 50M+ June 10-12, 2022 Jurassic World: Dominion — 145.1M Top Gun: Maverick — 51.9M May 25-27, 2007 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End — 114.7M Shrek the Third — 53.0M May 10-12, 2013 Iron Man 3 — 72.5M The Great Gatsby — 50.1M May 10-12, 2019 Avengers: Endgame — 63.3M Pokémon Detective Pikachu — 54.4M June 9-11, 2023 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts — 60.5M Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — 55.4M June 27-29, 2008 (both openers) Wall-E — 63.1 Wanted — 50.9M June 8-10, 2012 (both openers) Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted — 60.3M Prometheus — 51.1M June 17-19, 2022 Jurassic World: Dominion — 59.2M Lightyear — 50.6M June 26-28, 2015 Jurassic World — 54.5M Inside Out — 52.3M December 29-31, 2017 Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 52.5M Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle — 50.1M Peace, Mike