MikeQ

Assuming $45M for Thursday previews is accurate, this is huge! Tied for second best of all time, behind only The Force Awakens which benefited from years of pent of nostalgia. My best guess of total Friday gross, assuming the 45M projection is accurate, is using The Dark Knight Rises' share of opening day from previews, which is the smallest among films with such huge previews (at 40.4%). This would give Infinity War a $111M opening day - 45M from previews, and a 66M true Friday - which if I'm not mistaken would be the largest opening true Friday ever. But it's just a guess! And based on early projections of Thursday previews that could change (up or down). Below are the top 15 preview grosses of all-time, and the share of their opening day from previews. However the weekend plays out, it's clear Infinity War is going to be huge. A potentially record breaking opening weekend here! Exciting! Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57.0 million (47.9%) 2. Avengers: Infinity War — 45.0 million (TBD) 3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45.0 million (43.0%) 4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%) 5. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%) 6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%) 7. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%) 8. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%) 9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%) 10. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%) 11. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%) 12. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%) 13. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%) 14. Black Panther — 25.2 million (33.2%) 15. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%) Peace, Mike

If that happens... just wow. I thought it was going to lose a lot of theatres this weekend, but somehow it held onto 1,650 theatres, and had the 2nd smallest percentage drop in theatres behind only A Quiet Place. Theatre counts on their equivalent weekends (11th weekend): The Force Awakens: 1,433 The Avengers: 747 Jurassic World: 574 The Last Jedi: 292 Peace, Mike

Black Panther began the week in 8th place and has jumped to 5th by Wednesday. If MovieMan's locked club actually comes true.... I don't think it will, but man, Black Panther is a beast. I guess we've never really had a situation like this before, with a huge film still around in the top 10 when the next film in the franchise is opening - and not just any film, but a culminating film like the 3rd Avengers. Peace, Mike

Does anyone know the earliest Deadline has posted Thursday preview projections/estimates for a blockbuster film? I recall 'Spider-Man: Homecoming' had an early projection (though inaccurate) from Deadline as early as 9:00-9:30pm EDT. Have they thrown out earlier numbers for huge films? When should we expect any numbers as food for fodder tonight? EDIT: Deadline first projected The Last Jedi's Thursday previews gross at after midnight EST (~9:30pm PST), and The Force Awakens' at ~9pm EST (6pm PST). Looks like it varies... Peace, Mike

Since on the topic of pre-sales and preview grosses, if we take a look at the top preview grosses of all time, there is a general (and perhaps obvious) trend that as the preview gross gets larger, the share of that gross of opening weekend is higher. It isn't a perfect one, of course. All of the films in the top 15 are sequels and/or part of franchise universes. I've highlighted the Marvel films in blue. Looking at Age of Ultron and Civil War, my guess would be that Infinity War would need at least $37-38 million in previews in order to pass The Force Awakens' opening weekend record (i.e. to hit $248M opening weekend). $37-38M in previews represents a share of 15% of an opening weekend gross of $248M. This seems like a logical minimum requirement to me, as I can't imagine that Infinity War's preview gross share will be less than Age of Ultron (14.4%) or Civil War (14.0%), given this is the third Avengers film (quasi-fourth film, if you include Civil War, which many seem to do...) and it is a highly anticipated film. But, as we can see, once we hit such high preview grosses, the share of opening weekend of those grosses seems to go up. It's not a very large sample to look at (and an argument can be made that Marvel films do tend to be less preview heavy and more general audience friendly), but films with $30+M in preview grosses tend to be in the 20+% range in terms of share of opening weekend. The lowest is The Dark Knight Rises' 19%. This is all to say is, it wouldn't be unusual to expect that Infinity War needs $40M previews (16.1% of record $248M opening weekend), or $45M previews (18.1% of $248M), etc. Right now I'm looking for that $37-38M minimum come Thursday/Friday when we starting hearing about its previews. And maybe I'm even wrong there - who knows! Marvel is Marvel. Will be a lot of fun to take a look at! Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Weekend 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57.0 million (23.0%) 2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45.0 million (20.5%) 3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (25.7%) 4. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (19.0%) 5. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (21.5%) 6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (21.9%) 7. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (OPENED ON WED) 8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (18.7%) 9. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (16.7%) 10. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (14.4%) 11. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (18.4%) 12. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (16.0%) 13. Black Panther — 25.2 million (12.5%) 14. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (14.0%) 15. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 24 million (19.2%) Peace, Mike

That's what I was thinking as well. I'm assuming the theatre count loss for Black Panther next weekend will be one of its largest so far. Are double features confirmed, or just something that you are guessing will be the case? Peace, Mike

Only a 15.3% drop from last Friday. Looks likely to have the best weekend drop of its run. Peace, Mike

A Quiet Place is only down 36% from last Thursday, and is actually adding another 219 theatres this weekend. It looks to me like it will have another really strong weekend drop. Black Panther keeps adding more good money to its big pile of money - down only 11.5% from last Thursday. It will still be in 1,930 theatres this weekend, its 10th weekend. Its retention is incredible. This is more theatres in its 10th weekend than the behemoth 'The Force Awakens' (1,618 theatres), 'The Avengers' (1,125 theatres), 'Jurassic World' (738 theatres), and 'The Last Jedi' (351 theatres). Peace, Mike

Personally, I tend be drawn to and have greater respect for people (including celebrities) have who have well articulated opinions about social and political issues. It shows that they're engaged with the world around them. People who make an effort to do this, who care about others, who dedicate themselves to causes, etc, are attractive. I like to surround myself with people like this. Peace, Mike

"If I don't make it back... remember you're the one who made me come here." Haha, that was good - made for a line that I thought was going to be a cliché but then changed course. Movie looks like a bunch of good fun. I know I'll be checking this one out with the family, because the family can't resist this dinosaur action. Peace, Mike

I agree. It looks like it will hit $680M by the end of next weekend, or close to it, and then finish between $690-695M total. So close to $700M total, unless it somehow gets a boost or expansion on the Infinity War weekend. Either way, it has had very strong legs. Sits at a 3.34 multiplier already with this weekend's actuals. Peace, Mike

I'm really enjoying the feel/tone of the movie. It's the first Star Wars Universe film that doesn't feel like yet another Star Wars instalment, but like its own beast, which is kinda cool. This trailer gives me a greater sense of what an extended Star Wars Universe could look like. I'm no Star Wars expert, but I'm sensing how not everything has to be another huge epic Jedi/the Force extravaganza, but a fun adventure on its own merits. Peace, Mike

Ah, I forgot about Signs ($60.1M opening). That is another that arguably should be included. BOM designates is as "Sci-fi Horror". Same with the films Prometheus ($51.1M opening), Alien vs. Predator ($38.3M opening), and The Purge ($34.1M opening), all of which I would personally designate as horror. I mean, they designate Alien: Covenant as horror. But War of the Worlds is also designated as Sci-Fi Horror, and for whatever reasons I wouldn't classify that as "horror", but maybe a broad definition is the best way to go... Peace, Mike

Terrific for A Quiet Place - with estimates, it looks to have the second best opening for an original horror film (behind only The Village). There is always disagreement of what qualifies as “horror” or not, but going by BOM’s classifications (and adding the recent ‘Split’ which BOM for whatever reason defines as “Horror Thriller” and doesn’t include in its listed horror genre categories), here are the largest opening weekends for horror films that I can find. I’m open to suggestions of what I’m missing (there may be other large opening horror films that would make this top 25, but I’m forgetting because BOM designates it in an unlisted horror genre like it did for ‘Split’). Additionally, some might argue Van Helsing isn’t horror (IMDB classifies it as “Action, Adventure, Fantasy”). Others might argue that Hannibal (58M opening), Red Dragon ($36.5M opening), and The Silence of the Lambs (though it wouldn’t make this list with a 13.8M opening) are all horror (IMDB classifies all of them as “Crime, Drama, Thriller”). Where do people (and horror buffs) typically stand on this - should Hannibal and Red Dragon be included in a list of best horror openings? Should Van Helsing qualify as horror? Anything else I'm missing? But without getting too technical, it’s clear that regardless of classification, A Quiet Place’s opening weekend is exceptionally good for an original horror film. Edit: Added films BOM designates as "Sci-fi Horror", which includes I Am Legend (77.2M), Signs (60.1M opening), Prometheus (51.1M), Alien vs. Predator (38.3M), The Purge (34.1M), and finally War of the Worlds (64.9M) - the last of which I wouldn't personally think of as "horror", but for consistency sake and for sake of discussion, am including in the list. Interesting to think about this kind of stuff, and where disagreements arise. Largest Horror Film Opening Weekends 1. It (2017) — 123.4 million 2. I Am Legend (2007) — 77.2 million 3. War of the Worlds (2005) — 64.9 million 4. Signs (2002) — 60.1 million 5. Paranormal Activity 3 (2011) — 52.6 million 6. Van Helsing (2004) — 51.7 million 7. Prometheus (2012) — 51.1 million 8. The Village (2004) — 50.7 million 9. A Quiet Place (2018) — 50.0 million 10. The Conjuring (2013) — 41.9 million 11. Shutter Island (2010) — 41.1 million 12. Paranormal Activity 2 (2010) — 40.7 million 13. Friday the 13th (2009) — 40.6 million 14. The Conjuring 2 (2016) — 40.4 million 15. Insidious Chapter 2 (2013) — 40.3 million 16. Split (2017) — 40.0 million 17. The Grudge (2004) — 39.1 million 18. Alien vs. Predator (2004) — 38.3 million 19. Annabelle (2014) — 37.1 million 20. Freddy vs. Jason (2003) — 36.4 million 21. Interview with the Vampire (1994) — 36.4 million 22. Alien: Covenant (2017) — 36.2 million 23. The Ring Two (2005) — 35.1 million 24. Annabelle: Creation (2017) — 35.0 million 25. Scream 3 (2000) — 34.7 million 26. The Purge (2013) — 34.1 million 27. The Devil Inside (2012) — 33.7 million 28. Saw III (2006) — 33.6 million 29. The Haunting (1999) — 33.4 million 30. Get Out (2017) — 33.4 million 31. Scream 2 (1997) — 32.9 million Peace, Mike

It is oddly annoying to me sometimes, because at times I want to know who he is quoting and the original context of the quoted post (and the post it was responding to, etc), but I can't use the arrow to go back to the original post (which may have been pages and pages ago) because it isn't quoted properly. #FirstWorldProblems Peace, Mike

Black Panther just keeps on impressing. Its Wednesday gross is 2nd behind only Ready Player One, and in its 48-day run so far it has never been out of the top 3 on any single day. It has had remarkable staying power. Peace, Mike

I didn't want to single you out, because I've poked fun at you before (re: Wonder Woman). Honestly, I appreciate your predictions, even when you're off. You put yourself out there and it generates good discussion. Peace, Mike

I'm running out of ways to express just how incredible Black Panther's run is continuing to be. I feel like a broken record, but it has already hit a 3.22 multiplier off of a $202M holiday-inflated opening weekend in February. It will pass Iron Man (3.23 multiplier) very soon. If Black Panther can reach ~$684M total or more domestically, it will best The Dark Knight's 3.38 multiplier (off a $158.4M opening weekend in the summer). Black Panther is just doing incredibly impressive numbers - really strong legs off a huge opening. Updated list: Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Openers Peace, Mike

After the insistence of some that Ready Player One would drop on Saturday, it ended up increasing. Its $53.2M 4-day is a good start, and its $181.2M worldwide opening is terrific. The big opening in China could mean huge numbers overall, as it looks to ride really strong WOM there. Peace, Mike

Love, Simon is probably not the best comparison, simply because its Friday gross is inflated by not only regular previews but also its previews from the weekend prior to its opening weekend - I think over $1.6M of its total Friday gross is from previews alone. Otherwise, I get what you're saying. Peace, Mike

For what it's worth, if $15M is accurate, then GI Joe's and Ready Player One's Friday increases from their True Thursdays are pretty similar: GI Joe True Thursday: $8.3M Friday: $15.3M (+85%) Ready Player One True Thursday: $8.25M Friday: $15M (+82%) Something to consider. Deadline's projection is an early one, and previews were definitely big for RPO (in terms of share of opening day), as you mention. Peace, Mike

Hollywood Reporter: $35+M (3-day) https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/steven-spielbergs-ready-player-one-tracking-sluggish-35m-us-debut-1093028 Variety: $45-55M (4-day) http://variety.com/2018/digital/news/ready-player-one-virtual-reality-vr-market-growth-catalyst-1202724167/ There could be more recent tracking available that I'm missing. Peace, Mike

Last weekend you projected Black Panther to drop 45% this weekend. So if you’re wrong about the same percentage again, it will drop 32-37% this coming weekend. Let’s see what happens. I totally understand your logic, but Black Panther was still the #2 grossing film this weekend. Theatres aren’t in a hurry to dump it yet. Peace, Mike

Black Panther is now the highest grossing comic book film of all time, with its 6th weekend gross again the best. Its legs for a February opener, and one that opened to a holiday-inflated $202M, are exceptional. It has already matched the final multiplier of Jurassic World (3.12) and still has a ways to go. Highest Grossing Comic Book Films 1. Black Panther (2018) — 630.9 million^ 2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 623.4 million 3. The Dark Knight (2008) — 534.9 million 4. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 459.0 million 5. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 448.1 million 6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 412.6 million 7. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 409.0 million 8. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 408.1 million 9. Spider-Man (2002) — 403.7 million 10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 389.8 million ^Run Not Yet Complete Best 6th Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — Sixth Weekend Gross (Drop from Fifth Weekend) 1. Black Panther (2018) — 16.7 million (-37.4%) 2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 11.2 million (-45.1%) 3. The Dark Knight (2008) — 10.5 million (-35.6%) 4. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 10.4 million (-39.4%) 5. Spider-Man (2002) — 10.3 million (-28.0%) 6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 9.8 million (-37.5%) 7. Batman (1989) — 8.9 million (-19.8%) 8. Deadpool (2016) — 8.0 million (-26.8%) 9. Iron Man (2008) — 7.5 million (-44.8%) 10. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 7.2 million (-34.4%) 11. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 6.3 million (-44.4%) 12. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 6.3 million (-35.8%) 13. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 6.3 million (-36.6%) 14. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 6.0 million (-31.9%) 15. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 5.8 million (-31.8%) Peace, Mike

Love, Simon's Saturday-to-Saturday and Sunday-to-Sunday drops are only 24.3% and 22.9%, respectively. Very strong weekend drop, as the opening weekend Friday was inflated not just by regular previews but also the additional previews held the weekend prior to opening. Peace, Mike