MikeQ

Given what looks like a strong internal multiplier for the weekend, a relatively small proportion of its weekend gross coming from previews, and the gender split being more equal/leaning female (which I've already shown earlier is unusual for a comic book film), I could see a strong 50-55% drop next weekend to about $45-50 million. Best Opening Weekends for Comic Book Films & Share from Previews Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights Marvel’s The Avengers — 207.4 million (9.0%) Avengers: Age of Ultron — 191.3 million (14.4%) Captain America: Civil War — 179.1 million (14.0%) Iron Man 3 — 174.1 million (9.0%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 166.0 million (16.7%) The Dark Knight Rises — 160.9 million (19.0%) The Dark Knight — 158.4 million (11.7%) Spider-Man 3 — 151.1 million (6.6%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 146.4 million (11.6%) Suicide Squad — 133.7 million (15.3%) Deadpool — 132.4 million (9.6%) Iron Man 2 — 128.1 million (5.9%) Man of Steel — 116.6 million (7.7%) Spider-Man — 114.8 million (6.1%) X-Men: The Last Stand — 102.8 million (5.7%) Wonder Woman — 100.5 million (10.9%) Iron Man — 98.6 million (5.1%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier — 95.0 million (10.7%) Guardians of the Galaxy — 94.3 million (11.9%) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 — 91.6 million (9.5%) X-Men: Days of Future Past — 90.8 million (8.9%) Approximate Saturday Increases/Decreases from True Fridays (Sans Previews) for Comic Book Films that Opened May-August (Not an Exhaustive List) Spider-Man: +34% (May) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: +31% (May) Wonder Woman: +29% (June) The Amazing Spider-Man 2: +25% (May) Captain America: Civil War: +21% (May) Ant-Man: +20% (July) Iron Man 3: +17% (May) Guardians of the Galaxy: +16% (August) X-Men: Apocalypse: +13% (May - Memorial Day Weekend) Marvel's The Avengers: +12% (May) X-Men: Days of Future Past: +7% (May - Memorial Day Weekend) Iron Man 2: +5% (May) Thor: +5% (May) Man of Steel: +4% (June) Spider-Man 3: +3% (May) Captain America: The First Avenger: +1% (July) The Dark Knight Rises: -0.5% (July) Avengers: Age of Ultron: -0.5% (May) The Dark Knight: -2% (July) Suicide Squad: -13% (August) Peace, Mike

A $35 million Saturday would represent a 26% increase from True Friday, which is very strong. Thur Previews: $11 million Friday: $27.85 million Saturday: $35 million (+26%) Sunday: $26.25 million (-25%) ---- TOTAL: $100.1 million If RTH's Saturday projection of $35 million holds, and it drops 25% or less on Sunday, then Wonder Woman hits the $100 million mark for the weekend. Peace, Mike

This is a good question, and I was interested in knowing this so I did of bit of digging around. I'm assuming you meant from true Friday (sans previews/midnights) - but in any event, this is what I'm most interested in given the variation in size of preview grosses (over time and across different films with different levels of anticipation). Ultimately, it seems that there wouldn't be much precedent for this (see list below). And also that we hardly have any comparisons for comic book movies released in June. Man of Steel is the only recent-ish example. There was Spider-Man 2, but it opened on a Wednesday (and back in June 2004), so I haven't included it. Same with The Amazing Spider-Man which opened on a Tuesday in July. And my list isn't exhaustive, since I didn't feel like going back through all of them (e.g. the older Fantastic Four movies, etc, which probably aren't the best comparisons anyway). Interestingly, GOTG Vol. 2, a film released just weeks ago, seems to have the best Saturday increase on opening weekend (from true Friday) of any comic book film in the modern era released in the May-August frame (Spider-Man bests it but was released wayyy back in 2002). As for Wonder Woman then, it will be interesting to see where its Saturday ultimately lands. This week was the end of May/beginning of June, so I've read others on here say that Friday was still a day in which many kids were in school in the US. Personally, where I live in Canada, kids are in school until the end of June, so it isn't until July that we hit the true peak of summer in terms of kids being off school. But still, unless I'm missing any notable examples (and I may be), it does seem as if increasing 30+% from true Friday for a comic book film in summer (May-August) is relatively unheard of... this actually makes GOTG Vol. 2's Saturday increase seem even more impressive to me. Approximate Saturday Increases/Decreases from True Fridays (Sans Previews) for Comic Book Films that Opened May-August (Not an Exhaustive List) Spider-Man: +34% (May) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: +31% (May) The Amazing Spider-Man 2: +25% (May) Captain America: Civil War: +21% (May) Ant-Man: +20% (July) Iron Man 3: +17% (May) Guardians of the Galaxy: +16% (August) X-Men: Apocalypse: +13% (May - Memorial Day Weekend) Marvel's The Avengers: +12% (May) X-Men: Days of Future Past: +7% (May - Memorial Day Weekend) Iron Man 2: +5% (May) Thor: +5% (May) Man of Steel: +4% (June) Spider-Man 3: +3% (May) Captain America: The First Avenger: +1% (July) The Dark Knight Rises: -0.5% (July) Avengers: Age of Ultron: -0.5% (May) The Dark Knight: -2% (July) Suicide Squad: -13% (August) Peace, Mike

With Friday estimates, Wonder Woman, I would say, ended up having a strong previews to opening day multiplier for a June release and as previews become more substantive. Preview Grosses for Some Comic Book Films and the Share of Opening Day Title / Preview Gross / Share of Opening Day The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%) Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%) Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%) Suicide Squad — 20.5 million (31.6%) Marvel's The Avengers — 18.7 million (23.1%) The Dark Knight — 18.5 million (27.5%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 17 million (30.2%) Iron Man 3 — 15.6 million (22.7%) Deadpool — 12.7 million (26.8%) Guardians of the Galaxy — 11.2 million (29.6%) Wonder Woman — 11 million (28.3%) Captain America: Winter Soldier — 10.2 million (27.6%) Doctor Strange — 9.4 million (28.8%) And for what it's worth, it looks like it could end up having the 16th strongest opening weekend for a comic book film, if it hits $100 million for the weekend, with ~11% of this from previews. Again, clearly the older comic book films have a smaller percentage of their opening weekend gross from previews/midnights, as the emphasis on previews has changed considerably over the years. Best Opening Weekends for Comic Book Films & Share from Previews Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights Marvel’s The Avengers — 207.4 million (9.0%) Avengers: Age of Ultron — 191.3 million (14.4%) Captain America: Civil War — 179.1 million (14.0%) Iron Man 3 — 174.1 million (9.0%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 166.0 million (16.7%) The Dark Knight Rises — 160.9 million (19.0%) The Dark Knight — 158.4 million (11.7%) Spider-Man 3 — 151.1 million (6.6%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 146.4 million (11.6%) Suicide Squad — 133.7 million (15.3%) Deadpool — 132.4 million (9.6%) Iron Man 2 — 128.1 million (5.9%) Man of Steel — 116.6 million (7.7%) Spider-Man — 114.8 million (6.1%) X-Men: The Last Stand — 102.8 million (5.7%) Iron Man — 98.6 million (5.1%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier — 95.0 million (10.7%) Guardians of the Galaxy — 94.3 million (11.9%) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 — 91.6 million (9.5%) X-Men: Days of Future Past — 90.8 million (8.9%) Peace, Mike

<<Prev Day <Wk <Mo <Yr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 >Yr >Mo >Wk >>Next Day TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 - Wonder Woman WB $38,850,000 - - 4,165 $9,328 $38,850,000 1 2 - Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Fox $8,000,000 - - 3,434 $2,330 $8,000,000 1 3 1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales BV $6,267,000 +82% -73% 4,276 $1,466 $99,275,771 8 4 2 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 BV $2,667,000 +90% -50% 3,507 $760 $348,408,332 29 5 3 Baywatch Par. $2,625,000 +97% -54% 3,647 $720 $35,849,438 9 6 4 Alien: Covenant Fox $1,115,000 +51% -63% 2,660 $419 $64,334,484 15 7 5 Everything, Everything WB $1,060,000 +100% -49% 2,375 $446 $26,041,587 15 8 8 Snatched Fox $390,000 +41% -64% 1,625 $240 $42,918,414 22 9 7 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul Fox $360,000 +2% -72% 2,088 $172 $16,964,604 15 10 9 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword WB $325,000 +47% -63% 1,222 $266 $36,327,957 22 11 - 3 Idiotas PNT $175,000 - - 349 $501 $175,000 1 12 11 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $172,000 +37% -52% 527 $326 $501,650,471 78

With $11 million in previews for Wonder Woman, a $37.5 million Friday (Deadline’s high end) would mean previews would represent 29.3% of the opening day gross, which for an early June release sounds pretty strong, I think. But if the low end of Deadline’s projection is accurate, I would say that’s a weak Friday number. A gross closer to $40 million (as per Variety) would represent a 27.5-29% share from previews, and likely a $100+ million opening weekend (maybe?) - I'm not sure about how to project this one. Is early June sort of comparable to early May, or are we starting to get into distinctly more frontloaded summer territory? Below are the estimated preview grosses for some other comic book films and the share of opening day for each. Obviously time of year matters. Perhaps someone who better knows what they're talking about can add their insight. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%) Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%) Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%) Suicide Squad — 20.5 million (31.6%) Marvel's The Avengers — 18.7 million (23.1%) The Dark Knight — 18.5 million (27.5%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 17 million (30.2%) Iron Man 3 — 15.6 million (22.7%) Deadpool — 12.7 million (26.8%) Guardians of the Galaxy — 11.2 million (29.6%) Captain America: Winter Soldier — 10.2 million (27.6%) Doctor Strange — 9.4 million (28.8%) Peace, Mike

It's possible that there is more of a gay male audience for Wonder Woman due to the source material, appeal, etc, but it's really, really difficult to know without actual data. Anecdotal accounts really don't tell us much of anything. As mentioned earlier, gay men are not a monolith, and vary considerably in terms of tastes and interests, etc. And not all gay men fit the stereotype of who a gay man is, so anecdotally, you may think Wonder Woman attracts more gay men, but the reality could be that just as many gay men of all stripes are out there seeing other comic book films, because again, gay men aren't a monolithic block of people. I feel that's important to remember. Peace, Mike

I think it would be interesting to be able to account for sexual orientation/sexual identity too, but for the purposes of the gender breakdown this doesn't change anything, as those who identify as gay men are identifying as men. So the 50/50 gender breakdown, irrespective of sexuality, would stay the same. Peace, Mike

Last summer, I started keeping track of the RT scores of the wide-release summer films (May-August) for fun. Half of the 42 wide-release films in my list last year were "Rotten" on RT (with a lot of high-profile stinkers), with only 10 films scoring 80+% for its Tomatometer. Kubo and the Two Strings was the highest rated wide-release last summer with a 97% and 8.4 average rating on RT. I thought I'd do so again this summer, so here it is so far: 2017 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) Wonder Woman — 93% — 7.6 rating Captain Underpants — 82% — 6.6 rating Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 81% — 7.1 rating Alien: Covenant — 71% — 6.4 rating The Dinner — 51% — 5.6 rating Everything, Everything — 46% — 5.4 rating Snatched — 36% — 5.2 rating Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales — 30% — 4.7 rating King Arthur: Legend of the Sword — 28% — 4.6 rating Baywatch — 20% — 4.0 rating Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul — 18% — 4.2 rating Peace, Mike

I wouldn't call it a "female driven" film myself either; however, relative to other comic book films, I would say this is evidence that the composition of the audience for this film is clearly leaning more female than usual for a comic book film. Indeed, I think it's pretty unheard of for a film like this to not skew male on opening. In doing some simple googling to find reported gender breakdowns for other comic book films either for preview night, opening night or at some point during opening weekend, it looks like these films always skewed male: Doctor Strange - 60% men, 40% women (opening night) http://deadline.com/2016/11/doctor-strange-trolls-hacksaw-ridge-weekend-box-office-1201848529/ Avengers: Age Of Ultron - 60% men, 40% women (previews) http://deadline.com/2015/05/avengers-age-of-ultron-thursday-box-office-1201419080/ Captain American: Civil War - 66% male, 34% female (reported Sunday AM of opening weekend) http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-civil-war-opening-weekend-box-office-summer-records-1201750394/ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 58% male (reported Saturday AM, so presumably percentage for previews/opening night) http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-box-office-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/ Ant-Man - 60% male (Friday PM update) http://deadline.com/2015/07/ant-man-trainwreck-amy-schumer-box-office-1201478786/ Research also suggests that the gender composition of audiences for blockbuster films becomes less male over time, or in other words that the female share of the audience increases over time (this occurs over mere days and the opening week of the film): http://variety.com/2016/data/news/data-dive-how-audience-demographics-shift-for-blockbusters-over-theatrical-runs-1201732845/ Peace, Mike

Beauty and the Beast is down less than 15% from last Thursday, but it should be hit pretty hard this weekend due to its theatre loss (40% drop in theatres). It will nonetheless hit the $500 million milestone this weekend. It will be only the 8th film in history to hit $500 million domestically. Really terrific. Peace, Mike

GOTG Vol. 2 down 35% from Thursday-to-Thursday. It could have a very strong weekend hold depending on how much Pirates impacts it on Friday onward. Will be interesting to see. I think it could be at just about $340 million or more after the 4-day weekend, and most definitely will be passing the original's total domestic gross this weekend. Peace, Mike

Thanks baumer! Peace, Mike

Civil War dropped -4.3% on the Tuesday after Victoria Day Monday and then -21.4% on Wednesday (previous Wednesday drops were -34.2% and -34.8%) Ultron dropped -12.1% on the Tuesday after Victoria Day Monday and then -22.9% on Wednesday (previous Wednesday drops were -27.5% and -28.3%) GOTG Vol. 2 just dropped -6% on the Tuesday after Victoria Day Monday. So similar to Ultron/Civil War (though totally anecdotal), I could see it dropping less than 30% into Wednesday. But I could be reading a trend into something that isn't one. Peace, Mike

I'm also rooting for this. I'm not at all invested in anyone who is involved with the film, but it has captured my attention from the first trailer for looking so new and interesting and visually stunning. It just looks like it could be a really absorbing piece of epic escapism. I think it would be fun if this ends up being a surprise summer blockbuster domestically. I hope it is critically well received and that it finds an audience. There is a universe where this could open to solid numbers due to the great trailers and ramped up buzz if critics give it a thumbs up, and then have really strong legs if it hits a sweet spot for audiences. I find myself hoping for this possibility. Peace, Mike

I think it's mostly just course correction. It dropped a mere 5.5% last weekend! Basically, the gross it obtained this weekend is around what we would expect if it had dropped the usual 25-30% last weekend (as it had done the three weekends prior) and then another 25-30% this weekend. Except it dropped harder this weekend to make up for it having stayed almost flat last weekend. It could have dropped somewhat better, perhaps, if 'Everything, Everything' hadn't opened and it hadn't lost another 400 theatres. Peace, Mike

It is definitely possible. But I also wonder, how much does Mother's Day really help comic book films like Guardians? Of other Marvel films that also had Mother's Day fall on the second weekend: Ultron dropped 33% on Mother's Day Sunday and then dropped 32.4% on the following Sunday. Iron Man 3 dropped 35.2% on Mother's Day Sunday and then dropped 29.8% on the following Sunday. Spider-Man 3 dropped 37.1% on Mother's Day Sunday and then dropped 30.0% on the following Sunday. Do we really have much evidence to suggest that Mother's Day significantly softens these kinds of films Sunday drops, given they all dropped similarly (or better) the Sunday after? Guardians dropped 23.7% and 25.1% its past two Sundays, so I wonder just how much of a stretch a 25.4% drop this Sunday really is? I'm just thinking out loud. I think you could be right, but I'm just not certain. It seems like a normal Sunday drop for Guardians at this point. I could see the actual Sunday drop being similar, if somewhat worse than estimated. Peace, Mike

MCU Sequels’ Third Weekends: Avengers: Age of Ultron — 38.9 million (-50.0%) Iron Man 3 — 35.8 million (-50.7%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 35.0 million (-46.3%) Captain America: Civil War — 32.9 million (-54.7%) Iron Man 2 — 26.4 million (-49.3%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier — 25.6 million (-38.0%) Thor: The Dark World — 14.2 million (-61.2%) In terms of third weekend grosses, GOTG Vol. 2 is ahead of Civil War, nearly on par with Iron Man 3, and only a few million behind Age Of Ultron, when those films opened to $32.6 million more, $27.6 million more, and $44.8 million more, respectively. The big question now is how well it can hold up next weekend against the new Pirates of the Caribbean and Baywatch. The latest tracking I can find has Pirates opening to $90+ million for the 4-day and Baywatch opening to $37-40 million in its 5-day debut (it opens on the Thursday). For the other MCU sequels whose fourth weekend also fell on Memorial Day weekend, they faced the following competition: Civil War faced openers X-Men Apocalypse ($79.8M) and Alice Through the Looking Glass ($33.5M) Ultron faced openers Tomorrowland ($42.7M) and Poltergeist ($26.3M) plus sizeable holdovers Pitch Perfect 2 ($38.9M) and Mad Max: Fury Road ($31.3M) Iron Man 3 faced Fast & Furious 6 ($117M), The Hangover Part 3 ($50.3M) and Epic ($42.8M), plus sizeable holdover Star Trek Into Darkness ($42.7M) Iron Man 2 faced Prince of Persia ($37.8M) and Sex and the City 2 ($36.8M) plus sizeable holdover Shrek Forever After ($57.1M) MCU Sequels’ Fourth Weekends: Memorial Day Weekends (3-day and 4-day grosses): Avengers: Age of Ultron — 21.7 million (-44.2%) AND 28.2 million (-27.4%) Iron Man 3 — 19.3 million (-46.0%) AND 24.7 million (-31.0%) Iron Man 2 — 16.5 million (-37.6%) AND 21.1 million (-20.0%) Captain America: Civil War — 15.4 million (-53.3%) AND 20.0 million (39.3%) Other: Captain America: The Winter Soldier — 16.2 million (-36.6%) *Normal April weekend Thor: The Dark World — 11.1 million (-21.9%) *Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend So, because of Pirates/Baywatch competition, will GOTG Vol. 2 drop as hard as Civil War next weekend? Or because of how well it has fared so far, will it drop more like Ultron/Iron Man 3 (or even Iron Man 2)? Iron Man 3 faced pretty strong competition in its right and dropped 46% for the 3-day. Perhaps GOTG Vol. 2 could drop similar to Iron Man with the strong competition (according to tracking)? I’m not sure at this point. I could see it holding surprisingly well or dropping like Civil War, given Pirates seems like strong direct competition. *shrug* Peace, Mike

It's definitely possible, but it doesn't seem likely to me. GOTG Vol. 2 seems to have a different weekend pattern when it comes to Sunday drops: Civil War: 1st SUN: -30.7% 2nd SUN: -34.1% 3rd SUN: -33.6% Ultron: 1st SUN: -11.0% (spillover?) 2nd SUN: -33.0% 3rd SUN: -32.4% GOTG Vol. 2: 1st SUN: -23.7% 2nd SUN: -25.1% 3rd SUN: -25.4% (estimated) This Monday is also a holiday in Canada, which could somewhat cushion the Sunday drop even if GOTG Vol. 2 were to ordinarily drop harder on the Sunday this weekend. But who knows - you could be right. A couple weekends of mid-20% drops doesn't necessarily mean it will drop as such this weekend. Peace, Mike

Alien: Covenant: FRI: $15.350 million SAT: $12.025 million (-21.7%) SUN: $8.625 million (-28.3%) ------------------------------ TOTAL: $36.0 million GOTG Vol. 2: FRI: $8.804 million SAT: $15.040 million (+70.8%) SUN: $11.218 million (-25.4%) ---------------------------- TOTAL: $35.062 million (-46.3% from last weekend) It's a close one between Alien and GOTG Vol.2, but I expect Alien to clearly win the weekend, unless it somehow has a much worse Sunday drop than estimated. Even if it slips from estimates, I think it still has enough leeway to win the weekend. This is the first weekend where Disney hasn't overestimated GOTG Vol. 2's Sunday drop, so I don't expect it to increase with actuals like it has the past two weekends. Peace, Mike

I wonder why you say this? GOTG Vol. 2 fell 55.5% in its second weekend, on par with the original GOTG (which dropped 55.3%), and which is the best second weekend drop for any MCU sequel. And we don't really know how it will be doing this weekend yet, as all we have to work on still are Deadline's insanely early Friday projections/stabs-in-the-dark. It seems too early to be saying that WOM or legs for GOTG Vol. 2 aren't strong - we don't really know yet. Peace, Mike

A 47% Wed-to-Wed drop for GOTG Vol 2. I'm foreseeing a sub-50% drop for it this weekend. Beauty and the Beast has hit $495 million. It is still looking like it could be over $498 million by the end of this weekend. Peace, Mike

I hadn't realized the trailer had hewn so closely (and clearly intentionally) to the original's trailer. Peace, Mike

Thanks and much appreciation to @EmpireCity for your insight and for sharing early numbers. It's a real shame that we are losing Empire and that we will no longer have access to pre-sale numbers. This, along with rth being rather absent lately, could mean we will no longer have early numbers moving forward. A significant loss for the forum. Peace, Mike

Beauty and the Beast is only down 10.6% from last Monday. If the rest of the week plays out strong like this, it could be at $495.5+ million by Thursday. And then even if it takes a harder hit this coming weekend (than usual - its last four weekends have been sub-30% drops) due to theatre loss and the inflated Mother's Day this past weekend and drops say 40-50%, it could be at about $498 million (or higher) by the end of this weekend. I could be misgauging if the Monday-to-Monday drop isn't indicative of the rest of the week, but nonetheless, Beauty is going to hit $500 million faster than I thought. Peace, Mike