MikeQ

Summer CBM Saturday Increases Someone once asked: Is there a precedence for a CBM movie increasing 30-40% from its opening Friday during summer ? This is a good question, and I was interested in knowing this so I did of bit of digging around. I'm assuming it was meant from true Friday (sans previews/midnights) - but in any event, this is what I'm most interested in given the variation in size of preview grosses (over time and across different films with different levels of anticipation). Ultimately, it seems that there wouldn't be much precedent for this (see list below). And also that we hardly have any comparisons for comic book movies released in June. Man of Steel is the only recent-ish example. There was Spider-Man 2, but it opened on a Wednesday (and back in June 2004), so I haven't included it. Same with The Amazing Spider-Man which opened on a Tuesday in July. And my list isn't exhaustive, since I didn't feel like going back through all of them (e.g. the older Fantastic Four movies, etc, which probably aren't the best comparisons anyway). Interestingly, GOTG Vol. 2, a film released just weeks ago, seems to have the best Saturday increase on opening weekend (from true Friday) of any comic book film in the modern era released in the May-August frame (Spider-Man bests it but was released wayyy back in 2002). As for Wonder Woman then, it will be interesting to see where its Saturday ultimately lands. This week was the end of May/beginning of June, so I've read others on here say that Friday was still a day in which many kids were in school in the US. Personally, where I live in Canada, kids are in school until the end of June, so it isn't until July that we hit the true peak of summer in terms of kids being off school. But still, unless I'm missing any notable examples (and I may be), it does seem as if increasing 30+% from true Friday for a comic book film in summer (May-August) is relatively unheard of... this actually makes GOTG Vol. 2's Saturday increase seem even more impressive to me. Approximate Saturday Increases/Decreases from True Fridays (Sans Previews) for Comic Book Films that Opened May-August (Not an Exhaustive List) Spider-Man: +34% (May) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: +31% (May) Wonder Woman: +29% (June) The Amazing Spider-Man 2: +25% (May) Captain America: Civil War: +21% (May) Ant-Man: +20% (July) Iron Man 3: +17% (May) Guardians of the Galaxy: +16% (August) X-Men: Apocalypse: +13% (May - Memorial Day Weekend) Marvel's The Avengers: +12% (May) X-Men: Days of Future Past: +7% (May - Memorial Day Weekend) Iron Man 2: +5% (May) Thor: +5% (May) Man of Steel: +4% (June) Spider-Man 3: +3% (May) Captain America: The First Avenger: +1% (July) The Dark Knight Rises: -0.5% (July) Avengers: Age of Ultron: -0.5% (May) The Dark Knight: -2% (July) Suicide Squad: -13% (August) Peace, Mike

The multipliers of comic book films - helpful for comparing legs. Films that reached a 3+ multiplier are highlighted in red (Wonder Woman in blue, as this is the film of current interest that has joined the 3+ multiplier club, but its run is not yet done). Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Openers Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (2.40) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (2.28) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (2.35) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (1.99) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 160.9 million (2.79) The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (2.23) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (2.62)^ Suicide Squad (2016) — 133.7 million (2.43) Deadpool (2016) — 132.4 million (2.74) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (2.44) Man of Steel (2013) — 116.6 million (2.50) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (3.43)^ X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (2.28) Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 95.0 million (2.73) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (2.21) X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 90.8 million (2.58) Logan (2017) — 88.4 million (2.56) Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 88.2 million* Thor: The Dark World (2013) — 85.7 million (2.41) X2: X-Men United (2003) — 85.6 million (2.51) Doctor Strange (2016) — 85.1 million (2.74) X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 85.1 million (2.11) Rest of list: *Wednesday Opener (thus not comparable) **Tuesday Opener (thus not comparable) ^As of July 4th, 2017 - Box Office Run Not Yet Complete Obviously the size of the opening and time of year matter (and films were once leggier than they are now), but it is interesting to compare multipliers for comic book films that opened on a Friday. As we can see above, it is relatively rare for a major comic book film to reach a 3 multiplier. Once Wonder Woman hits ~$365 million it will be the leggiest live action comic book film of the 21st century, beating out Guardians of the Galaxy's 3.53 multiplier from 2014, which itself beat Spider-Man's 3.52 multiplier from 12 years earlier in 2002. Once Wonder Woman hits ~$369 million, it will be the leggiest $40+ million opening comic book film since Batman in 1989. (Again, this is among Friday openers only, obviously -- those few dratted weekday openers aren't comparable, unfortunately.) And obviously given the size of the opening (largest opening weekend at the time, and still the third largest opening weekend ever), The Avengers’ reaching a 3 multiplier is really impressive. I would say The Dark Knight’s multiplier is also very impressive — a 3.38 multiplier off of a $158.4 million opening, which again was the largest opening weekend of all time at the time it opened! (I sometimes forget that fact.) Batman (1989), Batman Returns (1992), and Batman Forever (1995) all owned the largest opening weekend of all time at the time they opened (wow), and all went on to 3+ multipliers (and well above that in the case of Batman), though they all definitely opened in a different era in which films were leggier. And we can definitely get into a discussion of other impressive multipliers within context. For example, Deadpool (an ‘R’ rated film) opened huge and had a strong 2.74 multiplier given it’s February opening and inflated opening due to Valentine’s Day. Peace, Mike

Highest Grossing Comic Book Films Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 623.4 million The Dark Knight (2008) — 534.9 million Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 459.0 million The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 448.1 million Iron Man 3 (2013) — 409.0 million Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 408.1 million Spider-Man (2002) — 403.7 million Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 384.3 million^ Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 373.6 million Deadpool (2016)— 363.1 million Wonder Woman (2017) — 354.6 million^ Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 336.5 million Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 333.2 million Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 330.4 million Suicide Squad (2016) — 325.1 million Iron Man (2008) — 318.4 million Iron Man 2 (2010) — 312.4 million Man of Steel (2013) — 291.0 million The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) — 262.0 million Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 259.8 million Batman (1989) — 251.2 million Men in Black (1997) — 250.7 million X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 234.4 millon X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 233.9 million Doctor Strange (2016) — 232.6 million ^ As of Tuesday July 4th, 2017 Best Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Openers Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier) Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (6.20) Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (3.56) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52) Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (3.49) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (3.43)^ — Projected Final Multiplier: 3.78+ The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38) MIB 3 (2012) — 54.6 million (3.28) Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23) Ant-Man (2015) — 57.2 million (3.15) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00) ^ Run Not Yet Complete Peace, Mike

Here I have lists that look at the share of preview gross's of comic book films of their opening day and their opening weekend. This is really useful for projecting how a comic book film might do for opening day and over the weekend once their preview gross is released. Comparisons to similar comic book films can be made, and we see some clear patterns, etc, that can be useful. Preview Gross’ Share of Opening Day & Opening Weekend for COMIC BOOK FILMS: Preview Grosses for Some Comic Book Films and the Share of Opening Day Title / Preview Gross / Share of Opening Day The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 30.6 million (40.4%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 27.7 million (34.0%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 27.6 million (32.7%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 25 million (33.1%) Suicide Squad (2016) — 20.5 million (31.6%) Marvel's The Avengers (2012) — 18.7 million (23.1%) The Dark Knight (2008) — 18.5 million (27.5%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 17 million (30.2%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 15.6 million (22.7%) Deadpool (2016) — 12.7 million (26.8%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 11.2 million (29.6%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 11 million (28.3%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 10.2 million (27.6%) Doctor Strange (2016) — 9.4 million (28.8%) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 8.7 million (24.7%) —— Best Opening Weekends for Comic Book Films & Share from Previews Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (9.0%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (14.4%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (14.0%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (9.0%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (16.7%) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 160.9 million (19.0%) The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (11.7%) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (6.6%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (11.6%) Suicide Squad (2016) — 133.7 million (15.3%) Deadpool (2016) — 132.4 million (9.6%) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (5.9%) Man of Steel (2013) — 116.6 million (7.7%) Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (6.1%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.1 million (10.7%) X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (5.7%) Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (5.1%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 95.0 million (10.7%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (11.9%) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (9.5%) X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 90.8 million (8.9%) Peace, Mike

I have accumulated some lists and statistics about the performances of comic book films that may be helpful to have for general use, and certainly which can be useful for great discussion here as well about the relative performance of comic book films. First, some lists looking at comic book films 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th weekends and their corresponding drops - useful for assessing how much we would expect a comic book film to drop over its run based on historical comparisons, and thus also assessing legs (if a film is holder better than average or worse than average for a comic book film). For example, it was pretty evident Wonder Woman was beginning an extra-ordinary run when it's second weekend drop was 43.3%, well below the norm for a comic book film and the second best hold for such a large comic book film, behind only Spider-Man (2002). 2nd Weekends & Drops for Live Action Comic Book Movies that Opened to $70+ million Title (Year) — 2nd Weekend Gross (Drop from Opening Weekend) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 103.1 million (-50.3%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 77.7 million (-59.4%) The Dark Knight (2008) — 75.2 million (-52.5%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 72.6 million (-59.5%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 72.5 million (-58.4%) Spider-Man (2002) — 71.4 million (-37.8%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 65.3 million (-55.5%) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 62.1 million (-61.4%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 58.5 million (-43.3%) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 58.2 million (-61.5%) Deadpool (2016) — 56.5 million (-57.4%) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 52.0 million (-59.4%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 51.3 million (-69.1%) Iron Man (2008) — 51.2 million (-48.1%) Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 45.2 million (-48.7%)* Suicide Squad (2016) — 43.5 million (-67.4%) Doctor Strange (2016) — 43.0 million (-49.5%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 42.1 million (-55.3%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 41.3 million (-56.6%) Man of Steel (2013) — 41.3 million (-64.6%)** X2: X-Men United (2003) — 40.0 million (-53.2%) Logan (2017) — 38.1 million (-56.9%) Thor: The Dark World (2013) — 36.6 million (-57.3%) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 35.5 million (-61.2%) X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 34.0 million (-66.9%)^ 300 (2007) — 32.9 million (-53.6%) X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 32.6 million (-64.2%)^ X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 26.4 million (-69.0%) *Opened on a Wednesday **Opened on Father’s Day Weekend ^Opened on Memorial Day Weekend Best 3rd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — Third Weekend Gross (Drop from Second Weekend) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 55.6 million (-46.0%) Spider-Man (2002) — 45.0 million (-36.9%) The Dark Knight (2008) — 42.7 million (-43.2%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 41.3 million (-29.5%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 38.9 million (-50.0%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 35.8 million (-50.7%) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 35.7 million (-42.5%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 34.7 million (-46.9%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 32.9 million (-54.7%) Iron Man (2008) — 31.8 million (-37.8%) Deadpool (2016) — 31.1 million (-44.9%) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 29.0 million (-50.1%) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 26.4 million (-49.3%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 25.6 million (-38.0%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 25.1 million (-40.4%) Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 24.8 million (-45.2%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 23.4 million (-54.5%) Suicide Squad (2016) — 20.9 million (-52.1%) Man of Steel (2013) — 20.7 million (-49.8%) 300 (2007) — 19.9 million (-39.6%) Batman (1989) — 19.2 million (-36.0%) Men in Black (1997) — 19.0 million (-36.7%) Logan (2017) — 17.8 million (-53.3%) Doctor Strange (2016) — 17.8 million (-58.7%) X2: X-Men United (2003) — 17.3 million (-56.8%) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 16.8 million (-52.7%) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) — 16.7 million (-41.4%) Best 4th Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — Fourth Weekend Gross (Drop from Third Weekend) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 36.7 million (-34.1%)* Spider-Man (2002) — 28.5 million (-36.7%)* The Dark Knight (2008) — 26.1 million (-38.8%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 24.9 million (-39.6%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 21.7 million (-44.2%)* Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 20.9 million (-39.7%)* Iron Man (2008) — 20.4 million (-35.8%)* Iron Man 3 (2013) — 19.3 million (-46.0%)* The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 19.0 million (-46.9%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 17.2 million (-31.5%) Deadpool (2016) — 16.7 million (-46.2%) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 16.5 million (-37.6%)* Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 16.2 million (-36.6%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 15.4 million (-53.3%)* Batman (1989) — 15.1 million (-21.5%) Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 15.0 million (-39.4%) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 14.3 million (-50.6%)* Doctor Strange (2016) — 13.7 million (-22.7%)** Men in Black (1997) — 12.4 million (-35.1%) Suicide Squad (2016) — 12.2 million (-41.3%) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) — 11.9 million (-28.7%)*** 300 (2007) — 11.4 million (-42.4%) Man of Steel (2013) — 11.4 million (-45.0%) Thor: The Dark World (2013) — 11.1 million (-21.9%)** *Memorial Day Weekend **Thanksgiving Weekend (U.S.) ***Labour Day Weekend (Canada/U.S.) Best 5th Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — Fifth Weekend Gross (Drop from Fourth Weekend) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 20.5 million (-44.2%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 17.1 million (-0.7%)^ The Dark Knight (2008) — 16.4 million (-37.3%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 15.7 million (-36.9%) Spider-Man (2002) — 14.3 million (-49.8%) Iron Man (2008) — 13.5 million (-33.8%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 11.4 million (-47.4%) Batman (1989) — 11.2 million (-26.1%) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 11.0 million (-42.0%) Deadpool (2016) — 10.9 million (-34.6%) Suicide Squad (2016) — 9.9 million (-19.1%)^ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 9.8 million (-52.9%) Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 8.6 million (-42.6%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 8.4 million (-56.3%) 300 (2007) — 8.4 million (-26.8%) Men in Black (1997) — 8.0 million (-35.1%) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 7.9 million (-51.9%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 7.8 million (-49.1%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 7.8 million (-52.1%) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 7.6 million (-47.1%) ^Labour Day Weekend (Canada/U.S.) Peace, Mike

I would be happy to do that. I don't see a sub-forum called that. Which forum does that refer to? I see a "Classic Box Office Runs" forum, but it looks like that is for specific films (and pre-2000), not general stats, unless I am mistaken? Peace, Mike

The full list (in spoilers): Peace, Mike

Yep! Once Wonder Woman hits ~$365 million it will be the leggiest live action comic book film of the 21st century, beating out Guardians of the Galaxy's 3.53 multiplier from 2014, which itself beat Spider-Man's 3.52 multiplier from 12 years earlier in 2002. Once Wonder Woman hits ~$369 million, it will be the leggiest $40+ million opening comic book film since Batman in 1989. (This is among Friday openers only, obviously -- those few dratted weekday openers aren't comparable, unfortunately.) If Wonder Woman can hit $391 million (or higher) for its total domestic gross, it will have the 6th best multiplier of ANY film that opened to $70+ million (Friday openers only): Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films: Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73) Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84) Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55) Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94) American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92) Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (3.79+) — IF IT CAN HIT $391M Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78) Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76) The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71) Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60) Wonder Woman will have achieved this off a $100+ million opening weekend in the summer. Phenomenal stuff. Even if it falls short, it will still be in the top 10. As can be seen, the list is dominated by animated films. Of the films with better multipliers than Wonder Woman (presuming it can hit $391M), three are animated films, one is Avatar (at #1 with its incredible juggernaut of a performance), and the other is American Sniper with its patriotic dominance. I have the full list of multipliers for the 101 films that have ever opened to $70+ million, in order of opening weekend gross, for those who are interested. Peace, Mike

Absolutely. The potential for growth is there. The early twitter reactions from critics suggest reviews will be generally favourable, I think, though its hard to know with twitter reactions. If lots of reviews praise the incredible visual experience and that it is a must see on the big screen, buzz could ramp up in the week before. If that $20M can be bumped up to $30M, and the film ends up being a crowd pleaser and legs it out to $100 million, with hundreds of millions made overseas, it will have done well, all things considered. Would love to see both Dunkirk and Valerian have some nice leggy runs through August - that would be fun to follow. Peace, Mike

Wonder Woman is clearly taking advantage of the extended holiday weekend of sorts, being up 39% from last Monday. By the end of the week, it will be at close to $360 million total. It will thus nearly be the leggiest run of any comic book film in the modern era before Spidey even opens. Once it hits $365 million next weekend, it will have surpassed the multipliers of GOTG and Spider-Man to become the leggiest. Peace, Mike

I discovered this little nugget at the end of a Deadline article: http://deadline.com/2017/07/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-forecast-sumer-franchise-fatigue-1202123662/ As much as I hate to say it, early tracking (at least according to Deadline) doesn't look good for Valerian... Peace, Mike

Thanks so much! I'm glad they are appreciated/helpful for someone. Peace, Mike

RT Watch Update: It's a bit of a toss up right now between 'Baby Driver' and 'War for the Planet of the apes' for being the best reviewed film of the summer thus far. The new Spider-Man is also one of the best reviewed films of the summer thus far, and it remains to be seen how films like Dunkirk and Valerian will do with critics. They could both add to what could prove to be overall a very strong July for critical reception. Despicable Me 3 is the worst reviewed film of the trilogy, and perhaps surprisingly sits somewhat worse than Cars 3 in terms of critical reception. The House is one of the worst reviewed films of the summer, essentially on par with Transformers when it comes to having a terrible average rating. 2017 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) Baby Driver — 97% — 8.2 rating War for the Planet of the Apes — 96% — 8.3 rating Spider-Man: Homecoming — 92% — 7.6 rating Wonder Woman — 92% — 7.5 rating It Comes At Night — 86% — 7.4 rating Captain Underpants — 85% — 6.8 rating Megan Leavey — 82% — 6.7 rating Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 81% — 7.1 rating Alien: Covenant — 71% — 6.4 rating Cars 3 — 67% — 6.1 rating Despicable Me 3 — 63% — 5.7 rating 47 Meters Down — 53% — 5.5 rating The Dinner — 51% — 5.6 rating Rough Night — 48% — 5.5 rating Everything, Everything — 48% — 5.5 rating Snatched — 36% — 5.1 rating Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales — 29% — 4.7 rating King Arthur: Legend of the Sword — 28% — 4.6 rating Baywatch — 20% — 4.0 rating Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul — 19% — 4.2 rating All Eyez on Me — 17% — 4.3 rating The House — 16% — 3.4 rating The Mummy — 15% — 4.2 rating Transformers: The Last Knight — 15% — 3.3 rating (Last summer half of the 42 wide-release films tracked were “rotten” on RT, and only 10 of the films had an 80+%.) Peace, Mike

Wonder Woman continues to shine in the legs department: the 4th best fifth weekend of all time for live action comic book films, and notably this is the first weekend that Wonder Woman has bested/outgrossed Spider-Man (2002). Wonder Woman, with estimates, has already hit a 3.35 multiplier, and has nearly cracked the top 10 grossing comic book films of all time. It will pass Deadpool and Spider-Man 2 soon enough to sit at #9 of all time. And it remains to be seen if it can have great late legs to further pass GOTG Vol. 2 or to crack the $400 million mark. With 'Spider-Man: Homecoming' around the corner, I don't foresee this happening, however I know not to underestimate Wonder Woman! And this is a phenomenal run no matter what happens from here on out. Best 5th Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — Fifth Weekend Gross (Drop from Fourth Weekend) Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 20.5 million (-44.2%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 17.1 million (-0.7%)^ The Dark Knight (2008) — 16.4 million (-37.3%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 16.1 million (-35.4%) Spider-Man (2002) — 14.3 million (-49.8%) Iron Man (2008) — 13.5 million (-33.8%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 11.4 million (-47.4%) Batman (1989) — 11.2 million (-26.1%) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 11.0 million (-42.0%) Deadpool (2016) — 10.9 million (-34.6%) Suicide Squad (2016) — 9.9 million (-19.1%)^ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 9.8 million (-52.9%) Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 8.6 million (-42.6%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 8.4 million (-56.3%) 300 (2007) — 8.4 million (-26.8%) Men in Black (1997) — 8.0 million (-35.1%) Iron Man 2 (2010) — 7.9 million (-51.9%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 7.8 million (-49.1%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 7.8 million (-52.1%) Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 7.6 million (-47.1%) ^Labour Day Weekend (Canada/U.S.) Highest Grossing Comic Book Films Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 623.4 million The Dark Knight (2008) — 534.9 million Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 459.0 million The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 448.1 million Iron Man 3 (2013) — 409.0 million Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 408.1 million Spider-Man (2002) — 403.7 million Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 383.3 million^ Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 373.6 million Deadpool (2016)— 363.1 million Wonder Woman (2017) — 346.6 million^ Spider-Man 3 (2007)— 336.5 million Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 333.2 million Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 330.4 million Suicide Squad (2016) — 325.1 million Iron Man (2008) — 318.4 million Iron Man 2 (2010) — 312.4 million Man of Steel (2013) — 291.0 million The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) — 262.0 million Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 259.8 million Batman (1989) — 251.2 million Men in Black (1997) — 250.7 million X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 234.4 millon X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 233.9 million Doctor Strange (2016) — 232.6 million ^As of Sunday July 2nd (estimates) Peace, Mike

One of the fundamental problems of the notion of "Tomato Law" is that it is a so-called law, that a particular phenomenon always occurs if certain conditions are met. If you want to make the argument that a good rotten tomatoes score can help a movie and a poor rotten tomatoes score can hinder a movie, in certain situations or cases, dependent on genre, how established the property is, etc, etc, that seems reasonable to me, and in no way supports there being a "Tomato Law" of sorts. But still, like Panda, I think it is a mistake to say that RT scores cause films to open well or open poorly, generally speaking. It may very well be the case sometimes that a film's success is very heavily dependent on reviews, but it is a mistake to place critical reception as the arbiter of what will or won't do well. For so many movies, the writing was on the wall well before reviews are released. Factors like excellent vs poor marketing, established vs unknown property, mainstream vs niche appeal, etc, are all very important. Suicide Squad last year opened to a record $133 million dollars in August, besting the previous August record by nearly $40 million (!) despite a 25% RT score. Many credit its success to its terrific marketing/trailers. You could also add that it is a kind of established property (comic book film) with mainstream appeal to a wide audience, and since it looked terrific, people flocked to see it. It even had very reasonable legs! Finally, in terms of overall box office performance, there may be some kind of moderate correlation between RT percentage scores and audience reception - in that its likely that for most mainstream movies, a film where a lot of critics that rate it positively/"fresh" is likely to reflect a general audience that would mostly rate the film positively/"fresh" as well. So, this may entice us to say "ah, good reviews caused this film to do well", but really the good reviews largely reflect good WOM, not cause it. So yes, we want to acknowledge reviews and the role that aggregate sites like Rotten Tomatoes play in the landscape of movie box office today, but we ought to be careful about making claims of there being a "Tomato Law" and that critic reviews are the fundamental predictor of box office success or failure. Peace, Mike

It looks fun. I laughed. I think the premise of the four of them being high school kids trapped in these avatars will make for a lot of good humour in the movie. Jack Black looks strong/funny in this. It looks nothing like Jumanji though - and that's not a bad thing, I just wonder why even call it Jumanji? I think they would have been better off just calling it anything else, and allow it to stand on its own. If it wasn't called Jumanji, I wouldn't have known it was supposed to be a remake/sequel/re-take (?) of the original. Peace, Mike

This has probably been indicated before, but when does the full review embargo for Valerian drop? Is it common knowledge? Peace, Mike

Could be a combination of the Wright fans rushing out, and the fact that the film is skewing young (52% under 25), to make for a more frontloaded opening day. It's nearly July, so we're almost to peak "out-of-school" period, which likely contributes at least somewhat to the ability to rush out on preview night too. Peace, Mike

In the modern era, no major (i.e. $40+ million opening) superhero movie has done that well (and we're talking Friday openers only -- Wednesday openers are not possible to compare). Guardians of the Galaxy holds the modern day record with a 3.53 multiplier in 2014. Before that it was Spider-Man with a 3.52 multiplier in 2002. If you go back into the 90s, Batman Returns achieved a 3.56 multiplier in 1992 (off a then all-time record opening weekend of $45.7 million), and before that Batman in 1989 achieved an insane multiplier of 6.20 (also off a then all-time opening weekend record of $40.5 million). If you delve into smaller openers in the 90s, The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle film and its sequel in 1990 & 1991 had big multipliers (5.32 and 3.93 respectively), as well as the original Blade film (4.11 multiplier), but again this was a different era and these are smaller openers ($25M, $20M, and $17M respectively, though I imagine still pretty substantive for their time - though again, films were leggier in general and even the largest opening weekends weren't as large, adjusted for inflation). So it's hard to compare directly in terms of ALL-time, but to put it more succinctly: Wonder Woman is all but certain to best the multipliers of both Guardians of the Galaxy and Spider-Man (and even Batman Forever in '95) to have the best multiplier for a $40+ million opener since Batman in '89. Pretty phenomenal run it is having, no matter how you slice it. EDIT: The list again for those who want it (below in spoilers). Wonder Woman has already hit a 3.15 multiplier (with Tuesday's gross), in itself a relatively rare feat among comic book films. Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Openers Peace, Mike

Alien Covenant did open sub-40M (it opened with $36.2 million to be exact). Have we started an accidental revisionist history? I think sometimes we overstate the importance of Rotten Tomatoes. I recall many people on these forums trashing the film and saying it didn't look good well before reviews came out. Peace, Mike

Tracking in that same article has: Despicable Me 3: $85+ million Baby Driver: $20+ million (5-day) The House: $10-12 million Peace, Mike

Yeah, I agree, though it's so close, and it will happen nonetheless this morning/afternoon once it accumulates the needed extra crash, heh. If $3.9 million is the number, I actually think it doesn't technically pass Suicide Squad until Wednesday numbers, as it's current gross + $3.9M = $325,078,000, just shy of Suicide Squad's $325,100,054. It still blows my mind that it is passing Suicide Squad, and will soon pass Batman v Superman and the original Guardians of the Galaxy, only four weeks into its run. Incredible. Peace, Mike

Fair enough, but Cars 3 didn't seem to pose a problem for Wonder Woman when it dropped sub-30% on Father's Day weekend, and the film itself seems to be skewing older as far as I can tell, with nearly 70% over 25 years old: http://deadline.com/2017/06/wonder-woman-captain-underpants-weekend-box-office-opening-1202106462/ Peace, Mike

You mentioned earlier in this thread that you would want to see rationale, data, etc, to back up box office predictions. So, I ask genuinely: I'm wondering how you get a ~45% drop for Wonder Woman into next weekend? Particularly since Wonder Woman has yet to drop that much in a weekend; not even from its huge opening weekend did it drop that much, when it dropped -43.3% (its largest weekend-to-weekend drop). It just dropped under 40% from an inflated Father's Day weekend, besting Cars 3 in PTA, and I'm not sure how Independence Day works with July 4th falling on a Tuesday, but at the least I do know most Canadians will have the Monday off for our Canada Day Holiday. So, I'm just not seeing how a 45% weekend drop is likely this coming weekend. Peace, Mike