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NCsoft

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    Spiderman : No Way Home - Box office thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    On 9/11/2022 at 4:24 PM, Valonqar said:

    Fear not! BOM's Rerelease numbers are in and they are stunning! 

     

    DOMESTIC (4.8%)
    $8,555,385

    INTERNATIONAL (95.2%)
    $169,097,713

    WORLDWIDE
    $177,653,098

     

    :hahaha:how the heck did they come up with that number? 

     

    I am convinced some one there is having a lot of fun playing with NWH numbers, at some point last week it was showing nearly $12B worldwide. Their current number is $1.929B with the international gross of this current re-release being $13,202,672; I have no idea where they are getting any of these numbers...

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

    was ready to call 3 billion dead because of how weird the domestic release was, but  checking out theaters in my country, its actually doing kinda great?

    Heard that presales in Korea is good, and apparently doing pretty well in India too.

     

    But I think 3B would require more promotion, bigger theater count domestically, more than 2 weeks run, and ideally another re-release in China. So under those ideal scenario, 3B would have been possible for sure I think. 

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NCsoft

    6 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

     

     

    they didnt even bother to re-release the special edition to avoid confusing the GA, whats the point of including new footage very few of the sequels audience will ever see?

    Some of the decisions surrounding this re-release have indeed been quite puzzling...

    This would have been a good chance to add a little footage of AWOW or another trailer, preferably both, and then they can announce that to motivate people to go see the re-release.

     

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

     

    I have to assume this is a worldwide re-release minus China.

     

    I am assuming that China doesn't do this re-release as well since they did a re-release last year. Though I kind of hope it does release in China, not saying that it's going to earn a lot (Chinese market situation is far from optimal at the moment), but I think having a re-release there in September will help clarify whether Avatar 2 will get a release there.  

     

    If China does this re-release, I think it's almost guaranteed A2 will release; otherwise, still unclear. 

    NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

    How long are we going to say "without China" though? There's tons of movies from the past that never got a China release, you can't really expect big box office from China at this point until things change 

    I feel like we are just going to get enough films into China each year for the term "without China" to stay relevant for quite sometime to come. JWD certainly wouldn't be looking at almost 1B without those $150M from China.

    • Like 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Reading that Jim might not direct A4 or A5 kind of dampened my mood a bit today, it just won't be the same even if a fairly capable director takes over.

    I don't know if this is indicating some problems working with Disney behind the scene, or could be just him talking while  being burnt out a little bit from too much Avatar; hope for the latter but in any case, I think directing all Avatar sequels himself is still by far the most likely outcome!

     

    • Like 2

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

    Never saw it in a theater, might try to one day. First time I saw it I must have been 12 or 13, in a school bus on a miniature screen. Still I was already marveling at how well it was made while most of the boys my age were like "ew it's a girl movie". I didn't know it yet but I was already a James Cameron fan.

    I never saw it in theaters in its original run either, finally got to pay my due back in 2012 when it re-released. 

    First time seeing it was with my family on our small TV screen with a most likely pirated home video of it back in China as a little boy, became a fan instantly and I think that was how many people saw it in China; I kept trying to belt out "my heart will go on" for days after....

    True Lies, Titanic and Avatar actually all became the highest grossing films of all time in China at time of release, the audience base for Cameron in China is just incredibly widespread. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NCsoft

    56 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

     

    Let's look at Spiderman Pre-Pandemic and Post. I'm not interested in the totals here, more in the % split between Domestic and International. I'm also going to deduce China from the Spider-Man: Far From Home.

     

    SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME (PRE)

    Domestic (42%)
    $390m
    International - China (58%)
    $542m
     

    SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME:

    Domestic (42.3%)
    $804m
    International (57.7%)
    $1,096m

     

    Maybe things aren't as bad as we thought?

     

    Yeah, I'd be much more pessimistic about A2's run if we haven't already seen No Way Home's run, it does boost confidence.

     

    I think A2 can get a much higher international split even ignoring China just because as good as NWH has done, superhero films have pockets of weaknesses in Japan and Europe, and a high oversea ratio is either caused by a weak domestic performance, or, in Cameron's case, explosive performances with no significant weak markets. There are probably other Asian markets that Avatar can outdo NWH (India etc...) in and markets that didn't even exist back in 2009 (Saudi Arabia). 

    So there is reason to be optimistic about overseas performance, missing Russia is a certainty, missing China is a probability, but market expansion and inflation still exist all around the world, we should be expecting some huge European numbers despite the exchange rates, and those oversea numbers might look spectacular (with a few question marks but upper limit very high!).

     

     

    • Like 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

     

    I've been pretty quiet on my worldwide predictions for this reason. It's really different now and I have to relearn how much money movies actually make worldwide.

    This is why I miss the pre-pandemic days, the $4B+ worldwide predictions may seem crazy at first, but there is a certain logic behind it, it's just adapting a Avatar like run in a expanded global market. There are certain things that we can take for granted that we just can't these days. Top Gun is doing very well overseas, but we're looking at like $650M or so, missing many markets and all; not sure if Dominion can even get to $600M OS. Obviously Avatar is on a different level, but yeah, its more complicated.

     

     

     

    • Like 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

    I can't tell if Dec 2019 or Dec 2022 is better for making bank.

    This is a really interesting question.

    I think Dec 2019 definitely for worldwide total gross, because it would have had China at its full potential (2019 was pretty much the last time Hollywood films can fully take advantage of China without the current cinema decline due to zero-covid policy, hyper-nationalism, sabotaged release date and unpredictable bans); as well as a Russia market (which contributed quite a bit to Avatar), the exchange rate was probably better then as well. This is assuming SW EP9 release at some other time.

     

    Dec 2022 probably better for domestic gross, partly because of all the inflation that's been going on, but also if you look at 2019 (with Endgame, Frozen 2, Toy Story 4, Joker and The Lion King, Spiderman and Aladdin), it had many box office phenomenon that it just felt like an overstuffed year. I kind of believe in the idea that there's only so much money to go around; and this year so far, lots of money is still left in the pocket, I think Top Gun Maverick is the genuine breakout but not sure if anything else will surprise to that extent. This kind of situation should benefit the biggest, must see in cinema films, Avatar 2 seems to have fairly light competition as well.  Barring any shocking developments with Covid, I think Avatar 2 is very well positioned domestically. 

     

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