NCsoft
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Posts posted by NCsoft
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7 hours ago, IronJimbo said:
A comparatively as strong Avatar (2009) performance this December would make over a billion dollars domestic.
This is what people are missing when they say Avatar 2 needs to recreate the original performance in order to outgross Top Gun Maverick domestically; when the reality is even a TFA to TLJ domestic attendance drop might bring it over TGM considering all the inflation that has been happening. Recreate the original magic we'd be talking about 1B+, which is absolutely possible as well.
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6 hours ago, filmlover said:
December is looking really empty right now. Ignoring Rogue Squadron (which will obviously be removed eventually), the biggest movie set to come out on paper is...Wonka? The month needs a stronger anchor. Moving Oppenheimer to the holidays would be a pretty good idea.
Any of Dune 2, Blade or Indiana Jones 5 would work there I think. But isn't there a Taika Waititi Star Wars movie coming, is that making it to next Dec?
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18 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:
Tbf if NWH and Top Gun have shown us anything, is that the box office is still capable of delivering surprise megahits on a consistent basis
I think we are clearly seeing signs of box office becoming more top heavy with maybe slightly less gross being distributed to much fewer films, this actually benefit the few "must see in theatre" films. The current era might actually help the biggest films more than pre-pandemic era because people go to movie less frequently in general but now have more money to spare, not to mention the ticket inflation since the pandemic.
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31 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:
No, for total, but 50M+ should pretty much be the floor i think. @Olive posted Maoyan predictions in the China thread and that had 15M for OD (101M Yuan) and 150M (1006M Yuan) for total if my currency calculator didnt lie to me.
I really hope this (or something close this) happens as I want to see the Chinese market becoming normal again, as much as it can be anyway.
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Tickets booked for today after seeing the reviews!
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9 minutes ago, Taruseth said:
Kinda crazy, considering Solo had 373 pages (wtf?)
To be fair, that was absolutely one of the funniest box office weekend ever.
Thanks for all the page numbers data!
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55 minutes ago, hw64 said:
I'm running a script which I've fed a list of around 70 uploads of the teaser across various different channels. The script polls YouTube every so often and queries how many views each upload has.
I can post a full list of the videos and their views if anyone's interested.
That's awesome!
Did you add in the most recent uploads in the past few days, like the IMAX 4K one, and the Kinocheck 4K one? They both seem to be doing quite well. I'm amazed that there is that much momentum in views after this many days, a sign for good things to come!
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So this thread is definitely on its way to the best performing "second weekend thread' since the pandemic, right?
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37 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:
Alright guys, what do you think the odds of this crossing a billion are?
I think 1B is still very close to certainty (just maybe not much over that), with China possibly giving it $100M , I just don't see overseas drop that drastically to not at least give it a $1B total.
It would also be super weird if all three of DS2, TG:M, and JWD end up in the $900M range worldwide...
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16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
I think that one is Top Gun Maverick this summer (and Spidey was it last winter)...I'm not sure what the winter one will be yet...
Obviously, it's gonna be "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish" 😏
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This is turning out to be a devastating year for China box office tracking.
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12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Only Idaho among these.
How about Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee?
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12 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
We already have several locked Best Picture nominees. We have The Batman, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and now Top Gun: Maverick. We did it guys. Blockbuster oscars is coming.
Certainly not The Batman, Top Gun Maverick is a 50/50, Everything Everywhere yes 100%.
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24 minutes ago, Bruce said:
Rise of Gru Banned in China
Please don't tell me this has anything to do with "yellow minions" = a form of racism?🙄
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11 hours ago, IronJimbo said:
https://www.indiewire.com/2022/05/box-office-top-gun-maverick-hit-older-audiences-1234729273/amp/
every day closer to Avatar 2 people are more and more willing to go to the cinema
This is good news for A2 indeed.
Not necessarily saying that A2 audiences will skew very old, but certainly a truly 4 quadrant film like A2 will need significant number of older audiences to show up, and this TG:M number is really encouraging.
I can just imagine a large amount of older audiences who might go to the theatre like once per year who remembers Avatar fondly and just can't wait to get another view Pandora.
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4 hours ago, upriser7 said:
does this even include views of dubbed versions of the trailer?
Pretty sure that number include all major reuploads, the six versions of teaser trailer on the 20th century India channel (include 5 dubbed version of the trailer) collectively total over 20 Million views now and still increasing, that's pretty impressive level of enthusiasm!
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10 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:
If the number of theaters open stays at the same level as of now, what can we realistically expect for JW: Dominion? Does something like 50M sound realistic?
JWD is going to be the first film that is actually interesting to track in China after quite some time, it's going to be a real test for both motivation for theatre attending and level of appetite for Hollywood blockbusters, I think neither is very clear at the moment. Enough theatres have opened but no film big enough opened to test the ceiling for the current state of market.
I think $50M+ is pretty easy, wondering if $100M would be realistic.
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25 minutes ago, excel1 said:
So how big of a bump is TC's next film likely to see? When is the old TC going to team up with the new TC?
Maybe Mission Impossible 7 next year could try for 1B, given that it has a China release and if quality is on par with the previous few entries.
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1 minute ago, Reddroast said:
I'm curious as to your reasoning
Pretty simple, we used to throw out $3.8 - 4B projections in the past few years based on the believe that a film as successful as the original in a 40% expanded global market would amount of at least that much, provided A2 can capture the same level of magic. Those predictions were always predicated on an assumed $800M to $1B in China, subtract that , leaves about $3B, so those predictions doesn't really change, just subtract China.
I think my optimistic scenario is in that range as well, granted it is on the more "optimistic" side.
If $2.55B Worldwide-China can be done in 2009, $3B Worldwide-China-Russia is likely doable in 2022 (pandemic complicates things a little). China isn't the only market expanded, and certainly not the only market with ticket inflation or increase in premium format.
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59 minutes ago, dudalb said:
Well, Compared to the Russian fans, who have had to go Cold Turkey on everything from the West...and I don't see that changing since VLad the Impaler seems intent on isolating the Russian people from the West as much as possible...and I don't see Western movies retuning to Russian theaters as long as VLad is in power. But there is going to be a booming indusry in bootlegging Western movies in Russia, though.
I just realized a while ago that Avatar made like $116M in Russia (didn't think that was possible), that's another major lost revenue for A2 that will have to made up somewhere.
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5 hours ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:
Chapek is a shitty CEO.
But this statement is W.
Fuck China amd their pathetic censorship. I would be done with China if they were banning my movies left and right with no actual reason.
This is the way
As much as I want Avatar to show in China, and make it a true epic box office run.
This is my general sentiment as well!
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18 minutes ago, porginchina said:
There might be more hope in the second half of the year, depending on how the Party handles Omicron. Right now, they're just locking down harder than ever in an attempt to zealously show their dedication to dynamically achieving societal zero spread, or whatever the current smear of jargon-y Xi-pleasing buzzwords happens to be. But the economic damage caused by the policy is extreme and they have to pivot at some point. Living in China, I've been consistently amazed at how central the economy is to the legitimacy of the entire political system of modern China. An economic crash will look very, very bad for the leadership and will be almost impossible to cover up.
I rather suspect that once Shanghai is deemed to be cleared of Covid, we might— might— start seeing some sort of pivot. Possibly. It may not be labeled explicitly as a pivot (there's a lot of interpretive wiggle from in "dynamic zero-Covid"), but it's possible.
Tl;dr— yep, the situation looks bleak as hell right now, but zero-Covid won't last forever and the government will be strongly incentivized to get the economy functioning again in the relatively near future.
I certainly hope this is the case.
I do agree that zero Covid will have to end at some point, recently the RMB trending down hard against USD, and other economic indicators aren't looking particularly good either. You're right in saying that the legitimacy of CCP hinged on economic development, but lately I feel the trend may be shifting toward a more nationalistic mentality based on antagonistic attitude toward the west, I think given the population demographics crisis, even the CCP understand that China's vigorous economic growth will flatten fairly soon and a shift in emotional target is needed.
There are some whispers that relaxation of the zero-covid policy will only come after the 20th congress meeting and then Xi assumes office for next term (I don't think that happens until early next year); the idea is that higher level of political stability can pave the way for policy relaxation. If that's case, we've got quite some time to wait.
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26 minutes ago, porginchina said:
Found this piece on China's May Day box office haul—https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202205/07/WS62761f41a310fd2b29e5b3d4.html
An 80+% year-on-year drop as "better than expected." The moviegoing picture is bleak in China, at least for the foreseeable future.
Pretty unfortunate situation.
Starting to doubt if any film this year, imported or local, can take advantage of the Chinese market size at its maximum.
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16 minutes ago, hw64 said:
‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Teaser Trailer Nabs Huge 148.6M Views in First Day
About 71% of Thor love and Thunder, but significantly more than the first Doctor Strange Teaser.
Not enough to qualify for top 10 but not bad at all!
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Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
So I just noticed that YouTube Trailer views for this 4K version uploaded by Trailerspot has now surpassed the official account video in total views. 23.7M vs 22.5M (The official account video).
I don't know if this has ever happened before? The views are just too fragmented.
But it does show the continuous interest people have for Avatar 2 now that these trailers reuploads are actually showing strong legs. This is more impressive than it's 24 hour view number.