NCsoft
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Posts posted by NCsoft
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Happy to see that in terms of theaters open and general attendance, things are moving in the right direction.
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Falling just short of 3 Hrs is my guess.
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Reading that Jim might not direct A4 or A5 kind of dampened my mood a bit today, it just won't be the same even if a fairly capable director takes over.
I don't know if this is indicating some problems working with Disney behind the scene, or could be just him talking while being burnt out a little bit from too much Avatar; hope for the latter but in any case, I think directing all Avatar sequels himself is still by far the most likely outcome!
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WOW indeed a lot of plot points are being revealed! I think that's OK though since Avatar 2 won't be needing the "avoid spoilers see it on OW" thing to drive sales, instead there is the need to further increase awareness and perhaps dropping hints of plot is one way to do it.
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3 hours ago, Issac Newton said:
Shangai Cinema to resume operation from July 8 in phase!!
Will JWD be playing for long enough to get some of this money?
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8 minutes ago, Alexdube said:
Never saw it in a theater, might try to one day. First time I saw it I must have been 12 or 13, in a school bus on a miniature screen. Still I was already marveling at how well it was made while most of the boys my age were like "ew it's a girl movie". I didn't know it yet but I was already a James Cameron fan.
I never saw it in theaters in its original run either, finally got to pay my due back in 2012 when it re-released.
First time seeing it was with my family on our small TV screen with a most likely pirated home video of it back in China as a little boy, became a fan instantly and I think that was how many people saw it in China; I kept trying to belt out "my heart will go on" for days after....
True Lies, Titanic and Avatar actually all became the highest grossing films of all time in China at time of release, the audience base for Cameron in China is just incredibly widespread.
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11 hours ago, IronJimbo said:
I'm confused why would they re-released titanic while Avatar 2 is still making dollar
They'll probably not interfere with each other.
I'd be fine with them doing a Titanic re-release every 5 years, that movie deserves to be seen again and again!
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56 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
Let's look at Spiderman Pre-Pandemic and Post. I'm not interested in the totals here, more in the % split between Domestic and International. I'm also going to deduce China from the Spider-Man: Far From Home.
SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME (PRE)
SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME:
Domestic (42.3%)
$804mInternational (57.7%)
$1,096mMaybe things aren't as bad as we thought?
Yeah, I'd be much more pessimistic about A2's run if we haven't already seen No Way Home's run, it does boost confidence.
I think A2 can get a much higher international split even ignoring China just because as good as NWH has done, superhero films have pockets of weaknesses in Japan and Europe, and a high oversea ratio is either caused by a weak domestic performance, or, in Cameron's case, explosive performances with no significant weak markets. There are probably other Asian markets that Avatar can outdo NWH (India etc...) in and markets that didn't even exist back in 2009 (Saudi Arabia).
So there is reason to be optimistic about overseas performance, missing Russia is a certainty, missing China is a probability, but market expansion and inflation still exist all around the world, we should be expecting some huge European numbers despite the exchange rates, and those oversea numbers might look spectacular (with a few question marks but upper limit very high!).
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3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
I've been pretty quiet on my worldwide predictions for this reason. It's really different now and I have to relearn how much money movies actually make worldwide.
This is why I miss the pre-pandemic days, the $4B+ worldwide predictions may seem crazy at first, but there is a certain logic behind it, it's just adapting a Avatar like run in a expanded global market. There are certain things that we can take for granted that we just can't these days. Top Gun is doing very well overseas, but we're looking at like $650M or so, missing many markets and all; not sure if Dominion can even get to $600M OS. Obviously Avatar is on a different level, but yeah, its more complicated.
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1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:
I can't tell if Dec 2019 or Dec 2022 is better for making bank.
This is a really interesting question.
I think Dec 2019 definitely for worldwide total gross, because it would have had China at its full potential (2019 was pretty much the last time Hollywood films can fully take advantage of China without the current cinema decline due to zero-covid policy, hyper-nationalism, sabotaged release date and unpredictable bans); as well as a Russia market (which contributed quite a bit to Avatar), the exchange rate was probably better then as well. This is assuming SW EP9 release at some other time.
Dec 2022 probably better for domestic gross, partly because of all the inflation that's been going on, but also if you look at 2019 (with Endgame, Frozen 2, Toy Story 4, Joker and The Lion King, Spiderman and Aladdin), it had many box office phenomenon that it just felt like an overstuffed year. I kind of believe in the idea that there's only so much money to go around; and this year so far, lots of money is still left in the pocket, I think Top Gun Maverick is the genuine breakout but not sure if anything else will surprise to that extent. This kind of situation should benefit the biggest, must see in cinema films, Avatar 2 seems to have fairly light competition as well. Barring any shocking developments with Covid, I think Avatar 2 is very well positioned domestically.
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5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
What happens when a film as rewatchable as Avatar has a franchise size opener ($200m+). This is uncharted territory.
After Top gun Maverick shows us 5X legs off a 100M+ opening, how about seeing 5X legs off a 200M+ opening!
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So I just noticed that YouTube Trailer views for this 4K version uploaded by Trailerspot has now surpassed the official account video in total views. 23.7M vs 22.5M (The official account video).
I don't know if this has ever happened before? The views are just too fragmented.
But it does show the continuous interest people have for Avatar 2 now that these trailers reuploads are actually showing strong legs. This is more impressive than it's 24 hour view number.
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7 hours ago, IronJimbo said:
A comparatively as strong Avatar (2009) performance this December would make over a billion dollars domestic.
This is what people are missing when they say Avatar 2 needs to recreate the original performance in order to outgross Top Gun Maverick domestically; when the reality is even a TFA to TLJ domestic attendance drop might bring it over TGM considering all the inflation that has been happening. Recreate the original magic we'd be talking about 1B+, which is absolutely possible as well.
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6 hours ago, filmlover said:
December is looking really empty right now. Ignoring Rogue Squadron (which will obviously be removed eventually), the biggest movie set to come out on paper is...Wonka? The month needs a stronger anchor. Moving Oppenheimer to the holidays would be a pretty good idea.
Any of Dune 2, Blade or Indiana Jones 5 would work there I think. But isn't there a Taika Waititi Star Wars movie coming, is that making it to next Dec?
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18 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:
Tbf if NWH and Top Gun have shown us anything, is that the box office is still capable of delivering surprise megahits on a consistent basis
I think we are clearly seeing signs of box office becoming more top heavy with maybe slightly less gross being distributed to much fewer films, this actually benefit the few "must see in theatre" films. The current era might actually help the biggest films more than pre-pandemic era because people go to movie less frequently in general but now have more money to spare, not to mention the ticket inflation since the pandemic.
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31 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:
No, for total, but 50M+ should pretty much be the floor i think. @Olive posted Maoyan predictions in the China thread and that had 15M for OD (101M Yuan) and 150M (1006M Yuan) for total if my currency calculator didnt lie to me.
I really hope this (or something close this) happens as I want to see the Chinese market becoming normal again, as much as it can be anyway.
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Tickets booked for today after seeing the reviews!
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9 minutes ago, Taruseth said:
Kinda crazy, considering Solo had 373 pages (wtf?)
To be fair, that was absolutely one of the funniest box office weekend ever.
Thanks for all the page numbers data!
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55 minutes ago, hw64 said:
I'm running a script which I've fed a list of around 70 uploads of the teaser across various different channels. The script polls YouTube every so often and queries how many views each upload has.
I can post a full list of the videos and their views if anyone's interested.
That's awesome!
Did you add in the most recent uploads in the past few days, like the IMAX 4K one, and the Kinocheck 4K one? They both seem to be doing quite well. I'm amazed that there is that much momentum in views after this many days, a sign for good things to come!
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So this thread is definitely on its way to the best performing "second weekend thread' since the pandemic, right?
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37 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:
Alright guys, what do you think the odds of this crossing a billion are?
I think 1B is still very close to certainty (just maybe not much over that), with China possibly giving it $100M , I just don't see overseas drop that drastically to not at least give it a $1B total.
It would also be super weird if all three of DS2, TG:M, and JWD end up in the $900M range worldwide...
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16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
I think that one is Top Gun Maverick this summer (and Spidey was it last winter)...I'm not sure what the winter one will be yet...
Obviously, it's gonna be "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish" 😏
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This is turning out to be a devastating year for China box office tracking.
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12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Only Idaho among these.
How about Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee?
Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by NCsoft
Somehow I have a feeling watching Avatar TWOW in a theatre is one of the things Xi Jinping is really looking forward to later this year...