NCsoft
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Posts posted by NCsoft
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13 hours ago, SLAM! said:
It makes me really happy that Warner Bros. is as confident as they are. I still think Dune has the potential to be the biggest film of 2020. Society is due for a true, sincere epic that unites the people in how exceptional it is (The Lord of the Rings and Avatar). I also expect this to be an Oscar player as well--that will ensure healthy legs.
In a way, I'm kind of glad Avatar 2 is coming out in 2021 now, Dec 18, 2020 was a perfect release date for A2, which is evident by how empty that slot looked for a while after it moved as studios juggle their release schedules.
I always thought having Dune and A2 releasing merely a month apart would cut short Dune's legs, which wouldn't be that much of a problem if Dune is more populist but as it stands it need all the help that it can get to truly shine, and I think a Dec slot with the same arrangement as 2009 and 2015, with few direct competitions might just do it.
Looking back in the past years, it seems that even a relatively weak December slate, there's almost always a holiday breakout, the demand for holiday movie going cemented itself more after 2015. We have to go all way back to 2010 to have a Dec where there's not a break out big release (Tron Legacy, Narnia 3), but even those did much better than BR 2049. I'm feeling pretty positive about this date.
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Good move, makes all the sense in the world.
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6 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:
no. but I dont just say no without reason. Gavin gave a good reason after his initial statement but Charlie made a good counter argument with Monday being smaller than friday on DtS. Monday being larger than Friday is huge, $400m locked.
Many authors of BO columns and nearly everyone in this forum thought in 2015 that CBO would overtake Domestic by 2017-18. I nailed the slow down when no one saw it coming in 2015.
Some columnists have recently repeated that CBO will pass Dom in a couple of years. 2018 was $9b and 2019 is pacing for a 5% or larger drop. I've recently realized that most of the gains have been from CNY, a time that has become a tradition to take in a movie. With screens doubling since 2015, CNY gains have increased but the rest of the market is near flat outside of the top 3 grossers of the year. They have nearly maxed out on disposable income shown below. Could be 10 or more years.
I remembered thinking that China would surpass domestic by 2018, most people thought 2017 I think. Then it came to a abrupt halt, you were definitely the only one seeing that coming.
The gap between China and Domestic in 2019 will be fairly large, obviously, but next year seems interesting as Domestic market is almost bound to shrink quite a bit from 2019, while China is as always uncertain, obviously China won't surpass domestic next year yet, but I'm interested in seeing how large or small the gap will be.
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3 hours ago, HeadShot said:
yeah he's clearly an alt. His first post was defending Avatar in the end game OS thread lmao. My money is on @NCsoft
Eh... You do know that I'm not banned from this place, I just wanted to take some time away from the tiring debates and "coming back" with a Alt-account makes zero logical sense...... right?
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13 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
That said I'd love to see films made from novels by Ursula K. Le Guin, John Crowley, Patricia McKillip, Terry Pratchet, Connie Willis, Tad Williams, Guy Gavriel Kay, China Miéville, Gene Wolf, Jasper Fforde etc etc instead of another remake of Dune or Amazon redoing LOTR. On a smaller scale, I'd also love to get a Regency Romance by Georgette Heyer or Mary Balogh instead of the 20th remake of a Jane Austen novel - even on streaming or VOD.
Yeah, I do find it a little off putting that amidst this renewed interesting in Sci-Fi and Fantasy in TV, the materials that they choose to adapt or write (in LOTR's case) are still well known and safe, Dune, Foundation, LOTR, His Dark Material and WOT. But I'm still quite excited to see these, it's a change from what's currently dominating in Cinema.
On the other side, there are adaptations of Broken Earth series, Kingkiller chronicles, Luna New Moon, Lazarus, in addition to Culture Series and Hyperion, maybe even The Three-body Problem, which are either newer stuff or slightly lesser well known.
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6 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:
I mean didn't they do that with John Carter, A Wrinkle in Time and Tomorrowland... but they just flopped SO hard that it would've been pretty dumb business sense to keep doing it. You could argue that those were simply average to bad films but then it's not like this Lion King remake or Maleficent or BATB were great yet they did amazing business regardless.
When faced with the choice between safe nostalgia entertainment vs. atrocious original films, the audiences will choose one over the other.
but once upon a time, visionary filmmakers used to have the ability and resource to consistently make great films the audiences didn't even know they wanted or needed, in fact, those were the films that drove the industry to where it is today.
Just now, Brainbug said:From a financial point of view - and thats what ultimately matters most for Disney - the live-action remakes are the much more safer and therefore logical bet.
Yeah, that's true. The point I guess was not what Disney is doing doesn't make financial sense for themselves, but it's just that this is a sad situation that we're currently in.
Audiences really should encourage themselves to be less risk averse, there was a time when the industry isn't so nostalgia driven, so audience driven, when new properties can succeed left and right.
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13 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
This is something i dont really get. Even if Disney makes 10 Lion King remakes that you hate, none of that makes the original film in any way worse. The 1994 Lion King is and always will be the same film, no matter what will happen with the IP.
We might perceive this differently, but every time I see one of these live action remakes, I think of "what could have been..."
Those "10 Lion kings" with huge promotional budget could have been enough money to make and promote 15 Epic Sci-fi or Fantasy blockbusters, there are many books out there to adapt, as well as original scripts waiting to be picked up.
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5 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:
There's also not as much of a distinction between arthouse and blockbuster outside the US. Both Parasite and Aladdin are blockbusters in South Korea and it's not weird.
Something like Parasite in Korea, and Dying to Survive in China could top box office and compete with the biggest blockbuster, that's something I wish to see in the domestic market.
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18 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:
People are saying Cinema is dead not just because of TLK but a lot of other factors, comedy, drama and mid budget films are dying, the only thing surviving are Disney’s films and most of them are their IPs, and the only times they try original films are through animation.
My point has always been that in our current film landscape, there's no popular films/franchises that is created in this generation, this is a new situation unique pretty much only to the 2010s. Current slate of films are living vicariously through the film glories of the past (Star Wars, Alien, Terminator, Mad Max, Blade Runner, Ghostbusters, Jurassic Park , The Lion King, Aladdin, BATB and Toy Story), or source material of the past (MCU, DCEU), which also happens to be dominating the screens ever since the early 2000s (Sam Raimi's Spiderman, X-Men, Dark Knight).
Partly as a result of superhero domination from source materials tracing back to the 1930s, we're no longer seeing much, if any, War epics, historic epics, hard Sci-Fi, Fantasy, disaster films, and Romantic Epics in the realm of big blockbusters, or sometimes not at all.
I wouldn't even have as much of a problem with Disney dominating, if Disney is actually interested in creating new IPs, and testing new ideas, and diversify their slate including blockbusters that is not either something rebooted from the 70s, or live-action remake from their previous animated films. Pixar's upcoming originals are promising, but in order to make the 2020s better, that's not enough and all studios need to do more.
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5 minutes ago, xiazhi said:
There hasn't been one weekly #1 original movie this year so far. GA just don't want it.
US?
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17 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:
I’m just glad Pixar for next 3-4 years will atleast be original and make some quality movies
5 originals within 2020-2022 span, exciting times.
Give me 2000s Pixar original streak!
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Well, back to "on the lot" is fine I guess, Avatar kind of has been superseding rules by being in the main forums , though it makes sense since this thread has been very active, perhaps way too active to be placed here.
@IronJimbo @dashrendar44 @Pure Spirit @Sheldon Cr @Witch Hunted Away
You guys know where to find this thread for Avatar discussion
. Though I have to say, after a few months of debates and arguments throughout Endgame's run, following Avatar losing the crown, and the frustrating string of events/bans in the last few days, I feel like this is a good time for me to hibernate for while. It's good to focus on something other than movies and box office. I'll still be around for big news and developments, just less frequently.
I'll be back with full vigor in June 2020 to start the 18 month countdown to Avatar 2 when this thread is back in main forums again, glorious times are ahead!
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3 hours ago, DeeCee said:
Would we prefer a 2019 10th anniversary re-release or a December 2020 re-release 1 year out from Avatar 2?
Although I like the idea of a 10th anniversary re-release I think with Star Wars this year Disney should go with a December 2020 re-release.
Personally, I would favour a Dec 2020 (1 year before Avatar 2) re-release with the first ever Avatar 2 teaser attached, I think this is most beneficial and Disney should further take advantage of those slots, which is still fairly empty at the moment.
While it would have been cool to see Avatar taking the crown back sooner than later, the most important thing is always to pave way for Avatar 2 to perform better, and I think Dec 2020 is for the best.
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3 minutes ago, TServo2049 said:
Well, Nolan’s right on schedule for another time-and/or-reality-bending movie. Inception was in 2010, and Memento was in 2000.
True, providing a good start of a new decade of films.
2010s has been a relatively down decade I think, may the 2020s be better.
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3 hours ago, infamous5445 said:
God Twitter and Reddit is a cesspool now that there's a new #1. At this rate Avatar 2 should make 3 billion just to shut everyone the hell up.
Didn't bother with Twitter, Reddit though from what I've seen has been quite kind to Cameron and Avatar, at least in r/boxoffice
One of the side effect of Avatar unloading the worldwide crown, is that some of the unjustified hatred is also being unloaded. I predict a sudden spur of new found appreciation for Avatar, I think it has already started.
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On 7/20/2019 at 8:26 PM, Alli said:
so there are more videos on youtube of cars moving backwards. it seems this is indeed a sci-fi movie of some sorts.
I'd prefer that way, more interesting than just being an action spy film.
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1 hour ago, Porthos said:
What happens if the 2D:3D split for DOM showings is 20:80 instead of what seems to be the new norm of 80:20? Sure, there's the wow and spectacle angle, so don't worry I ain't discounting that. But I also was kinda expecting a decent sized uptick on 3D for TLK and I didn't see that in local sales. Which... makes me curious. Not doubtful (I learned a LONG time ago to never doubt JC). Not skeptical (ditto). Just curious.
Can/will Avatar 2/3/4/5 reignite a 3D preference, at least for his films? Will the 2D:3D screen split be mandated to be heavily 3D? I'm really really curious to see how it all plays out. Fascinated, even.
I think the best strategy for Avatar 2 is to have a 50:50 or so 2D/3D ratio domestically and let audiences pick. There's no doubt that even in domestic Market, Avatar 2 will have a higher premium showing percentage than most if not all other blockbusters, people will be very aware of the visual spectacle nature of upcoming Avatar films. 3D may be on the decline domestically, but once in a while, there's got to be an exception (Gravity for example).
80:20 3D ratio might discourage some ticket buyers though, wouldn't want that.
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Dudalb likes Cameron...
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14 minutes ago, Nero said:
There is no such list as GOAT director lmao. How do you expect people to rank him when it doesn't exist. Also how will you rank a director? Based on his last credentials or selecting a genre movie or based on BO number or using Oscars? It's hard and I don't think it will do justice to other directors as well
Influence on film industry, technological and artistic innovations, box office history, film awards, followers, directors whom they inspired, quality of the films, fanfares and lasting impacts of films.. Not exactly rocket science.
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6 minutes ago, Nero said:
Are you kidding me? Cameron doesn't get enough credit? What do you want Nobel Peace Prize? Jesus I just literally explained as to even after the EG has passed Avatar Cameron is getting credit. My only complaint is that MCU doen't that much credit
James Cameron's box office prowess is still not thoroughly understood and appreciated, right in this forum, there were people suggesting the Russo's brothers have surpassed Jim in box office power... People for the most part still can't fully comprehend what 1.84B and 2.78B means in 1997 and 2009 respectively.
Also, because he doesn't abide all Hollywood rules, and isn't exactly politically correct, the artsy award circle usually hates him, I know that because I am a more avid award season follower than I am a box office follower. Some feminists also hate him for whatever reason (I don't get it, he's created iconic powerful female roles), and his constant effort in delivering the environmentalism message also doesn't get enough credit.
Jim Cameron belongs to the list of GOAT directors, though many hesitate to put him in that caliber, partly due to the populism in his films, as if the ability to attract global audiences is a fault in itself. Both Titanic and Avatar were affected by this narrative, the "cool kids" loved Aliens and T2 for example, wouldn't acknowledge his biggest two achievements.
By Cameron not getting enough credit, I mean a great many things, these are just some random examples.
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1 minute ago, Nero said:
Lol you just gave justification as to what my point was. I was saying Cameron gets way too much credit even after EG passing Avatar every one including Russo brothers, Kevin feige and many more persons are still praising him. My point being MCU doesn't get that much credit. Everybody expects great things from Cameron no doubt but I think everybody who worked at Marvel should also get credit.
MCU gets lots of credit for the passion and work of people behind the movies, I don't know what you are talking about.
Even I who is not a big fan of superhero films and this "Shared universe" trend, has said that The Russo's had done impressive work in Civil War, Guardians are really enjoyable movies, and Taika was a good choice for Thor Ragnarok, that was a fun film.
The thing is, MCU is the culmination of tens of thousands of peoples' work, there's 10+ different directors, numerous actors, many writers, several producers, many Disney corporate people in charge and then there's Kevin Feige, who exactly do you credit?
James Cameron is a visionary director, and it's much easier for people to acknowledge his achievement, he is the absolute focal point of all his work.
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2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
CHRIST what the hell am I reading
He's also comparing the entirety of MCU, which started the creation of its source material since the 1950s; to Jim's work on Titanic and Avatar. If that doesn't convey Cameron's impressiveness, I don't know what does. If anything, he doesn't get enough credits.
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4 hours ago, LaughingEvans said:
How much money do you think it will hit?
Percentages in Asia, especially China, are not that favourable for distributors, compared to
If properly marketed and the re-release is large enough, I can see $100M to $150M in China and $200M+ in Asia, potentially even more.
Question is whether Disney thinks that it would be worth it.
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20 minutes ago, Nero said:
I think people give way too much credit. Yes he had 2 highest grossing movies and many successful movies and people expected that of him and still do. But the MCU which started from scratch and getting the top crown doesn't get much attention? Cameron might have made a career of what maybe 5-6 actors? MCU has made more than 40+ and is still going strong. Also how many sequels are highest grossing movies? Lot of original movies had that title. So why is it so hard for sequels to get there coz when you get so deep like 22 movies it gets very very hard to retain that audience and also get casual who aren't fanboy to watch their product... This is the hard work earned by so any people at MCU. I believe they should get more respect and credit where it is due.
If director X comes out and releases an ambitious blockbuster with a large budget , with a original story (no source material) which he/she wrote, casting mostly none A-list actors, then takes the entire world by storm, advances film technology in multiple fronts, while revolutionize the theatrical experience, said film then becomes the highest grossing film of all time, grossing $4.2B worldwide (raising the current worldwide record by 50%+), and then proceed to get nominated for 9 Oscars (including best Picture and best director), and - more importantly, if I really like the film; I would become a die-hard fan for life, no questions asked, the director doesn't even have to repeat this success (like Jim did).
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. Though I have to say, after a few months of debates and arguments throughout Endgame's run, following Avatar losing the crown, and the frustrating string of events/bans in the last few days, I feel like this is a good time for me to hibernate for while. It's good to focus on something other than movies and box office. I'll still be around for big news and developments, just less frequently.
⊃∪∩⪽ | Legendary | October 22 2021 | Denis Villeneuve | Returns to IMAX on December 3
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by NCsoft
I think that December requires something to hit out, the raw demand is there and the habit of going to the theaters during the holiday has quite a bit of momentum (especially in recent years). Mortal Engines died and MPR under-performed but Aquaman was able to break out and Bumblebee and Spider-verse could do respectable business.
If you look at 2020, it's hard to see Dune in the Mortal Engines position because there is simply not an Aquaman anywhere to be found, the Dec slate is more filled now but still weak. Uncharted needs to try its best to avoid being another Assassin's Creed, Cruella's got very little attention thus far, and West Side Story is your typical Dec film, it can perfectly co-exist with everything else, and Croods 2, while I will definitely watch it, not sure if that's going to be do much either, maybe similar numbers to Spider-verse, maybe a bit more. I think it's either a everything goes bust Dec (which we haven't seen in years, and something's got to benefit just from the existing demand), or Dune occupies the "Blockbuster of the holiday" position.