Porthos

Not sure if anyone will actually grab this one, but let's try it. I bet that Alice 2 DOM total is less than $100m. 3 people, 50 points. I ain't afraid of Puerto Rico.

Live look-in @ Alice 2's Weekend Numbers: (crossposted with the Summer Bomb thread - but it's appropiate in both threads, I think ;))

Johnny Depp right now:

Not sure it really matters, but Star Wars 7 was already deep in pre-pre-preduction before Lucas sold Lucasfilm to Disney. As a matter fact, near as I can tell, Disney has a very 'hands-off' attittude when it comes to Lucasfilm and SW. And why shouldn't they, since at the moment SW is practially a license to print money.

A SW to ESB first run drop applied to TFA gives about 638m, FWIW. Maybe not sayin', but perhaps sayin' that 650m+ would still be a fantastic number for Ep 8.

Which film will be the New Number

@grey ghost: This is in regards to my ID:R is less than TDAT (adj) bet.

I'm predicting it does less than $258.009m, yes. I've been pegging $250m to $275m for about a month, but I couldn't find a good/interesting comp for $275m. So why not have some fun with this? It's only prediciting Box Office, after all.

OK, let me take my first crack at this. It's been quite a while since I've personally seen such disparate predicts for a movie as I am currently seeing for Independence Day: Resurgence. Maybe even more than last years JW. Well, I've been saying I've got some huge reservations about ID:R, so it's time to put my fake money where my virtual mouth is. I bet that ID:R DOM total < The Day After Tomorrow DOM ADJ ($258,009,000). 3 people 100 points each. I could just do $250m, but that's boring. Plus, you know, fudge. I know I'm taking a risk making this bet at the start of the four week window and before most of the advertising blitz happens, never mind actual reviews. But, hey, worst that can happens is I help Redistribute the Wealth.

So I've lived to see the day that a movie that just hits $400m DOM could 'reasonably' be called a dissapointment. 2002 me would have been shocked to hear that. Hell, 2010 me would be surprised to hear that. Though I suppose TPM was labled a 'dissapointment' when it 'only' did $431m DOM on it's initial run. But that's only because us SW loonies really REALLY wanted to beat the boat and didn't take it not coming close very well some of us SW loonies really didn't appreciate just how much money it did back in the day.

Don't forget that for the longest time, Star Wars was "Priced to Rent" instead of "Priced to Buy". I.e. it would sell in the mid-$80s and never get into the mid-$30s tier that was 'standard' for a movie when it reached "Price to Buy". Until a movie hit the discount bins, that is. I don't know if it's been brought up in this thread, but that's one thing that DVD truly revolutionized: The standardization of the "Price to Buy" model. IMO it was because the studios wanted to kill off what was left of appeal to the videophiles that made up the chase the Laserdisc market. But since, thanks to the quirks of the market, Laserdisc buyers were used to an immediate "Price to Buy" paradigm as opposed to waiting six to nine (or even twelve) months for a film to leave the "Price to Rent" tier and move to the "Price to Buy" teir, DVDs more or less followed suit. So it's not all that surprising to me, as the price points back in the day skewed things quite a bit.

#notallnewposters

Whooops! Misread it. My bad. Sorry 'bout that.

Two people have already taken the conjuring bet (baumer and misafeco). It'd be up to @Telemachos to open it up for a third.

If this is still available, I'd like to take it as well. Might as well jump in at some point.

The bookie knows how to reel in his fish.

I know. But I couldn't let an obvious joke like that one be unsaid.

4 people, 100 points??

Well, I've been looking for a reason to show off my ignorance and put more money in the pool. I just need a little shove, really. (and a bet that even someone like me would go "Yeah, today might not be my birthday, but it wasn't yesterday, either." )

To drive this point home, right now with extimates, Civil War is at 95.04% of Age of Ultron. That is well within the expected range for a sequel of a well-recieved movie. Most franchises would kill to get within 95% of the last installment in their OW. Especially if early (very very very early) signs point to good word of mouth which should help with legs. Double especially if the OW is already in the stratosphere. Did it do slightly less than the last Avengers movie? Yes. Does that matter? It's like the difference between winning the Super Bowl by 15 points instead of 20. I.e. Not in the slightest. Beyond the Derby and Summer games, of course.

What I am trying to figure out is how a 180+m weekend would be disappointing for an Avengers movie. I mean, seriously now. 180+ million DOLLAR weekend. On what planet is that EVER disappointing? Not one I'm familar with. So go ahead and do the Duck Season/Rabbit Season dance over "Avengers" or "Captain America". Imma gonna marvel at the mass amounts of filthy lucre the film did and will get. This is an unqualified and indisuputable success no matter what branding label one wants to stick on the movie, and it should be treated as such.

I think frontloading alone makes it pretty probable, yes. But, I dunno. It wouldn't shock me to see it "only" hit 190 or 195. While the diehards and spoilerphobes will rush out to see it (hence the frontloading comment), others might think "I have two plus weeks to see it duiring the hollidays" and wait a bit. If I were a predictor, and I'm not, I'd probably completely ignore the TFA opening weekend, except to acknowledge that lots and lots of people still like SW. But I certainly wouldn't try to do much of a percentage guessing game based on the TFA OW. There were just so many things that were unique there that I think using the actual numbers of TFA for any prediction is... asking for trouble. Still, I'd say odds are good. But plenty of time for things to go 'wrong' between now and Dec '17. ==== One thing that might be interesting is to go back and look at the Top 10 predicitons for 2015 BEFORE the Disney Hype Machine took off to get a guage on what peeps thought TFA would do. I was looking at it earlier today and I was stuck by how many mid 400 predictions there were at the time. Using those predicitons for TFA as a floor of sorts might not be the worst thing in the world. If only to keep expectations in check.

Ah, I see. Well you said "Star Wars second movie drop offs are big, even when it's literally the Empire Strikes Back of the trilogy lol." The 'even when' made it sound like it should have done more. My apologies for misunderstanding. Still, it allowed me to get my feelings that ESB isn't the bestest ever thing to happen to SW out in the open. So it's all good.

Yes, but the reputation of ESB didn't arrive until well after the movie first screened. Thinking that "something is the Empire Strikes Back of something" should automatically lead to great box office is, frankly, a little daft. After all, as you point out, the actual ESB didn't. Then again, I personally think that ESB is more than a little overrated (though I do rate it more than I did in my younger days), so calling something "the Empire Strikes Back of something" really doesn't say much to me.