LinksterAC

It held better this week than I expected based off of last week's numbers. Looking ahead, TLJ may be around the $620M mark at the end of the holidays. $700M is definitely still in play, though I wouldn't call it likely. I think a 3+ multiplier is a high probability at this point. Date Weekday Daily % change Through 25-Dec 395.6 26-Dec Tuesday 27.8 27-Dec Wednesday 21.8 -22% 28-Dec Thursday 19.4 -11% 29-Dec Friday 21.4 10% 30-Dec Saturday 23.5 10% 31-Dec Sunday 16.5 -30% WKND-3 61.3 1-Jan Monday 19.7 20% WKND-4 81.1 2-Jan Tuesday 11.8 -40% 3-Jan Wednesday 10.7 -10% 4-Jan Thursday 9.6 -10% 5-Jan Friday 14.4 50% 6-Jan Saturday 18.0 25% 7-Jan Sunday 10.4 -42% WKND 42.8 CUME 620.6

I'm going to go ahead and bust out some science powah here: Technically, actuals did not drop from Asgard. Rth gave us $22M, which is only two significant figures. That means for actuals with three significant figures, anything between 21.5M and 22.4M would still qualify as 22M. So Rth was right on the money. Don't doubt the guy, he's a hero.

This kind of a number suggests a virtually flat 3-Day weekend when compared to last week. This is a really strong hold.

This is a surprisingly strong hold, much higher than I expected (18M-19M) and suggests that 700M is back on the table (though far from a lock). The moral of the story: let the Holiday Season start before talking about whether or not it was a success.

That would be pretty awesome to see, particularly since the highest foreign grosser in China right now doesn't even crack the $400M threshold. I don't follow China super closely, but don't foreign films only have about a month in the theaters?

It *could* cover this. The dollar could also take a dive and give A2 a huge boost. Or it can get stronger (like it was two years ago) and seriously hinder its OS gross. The point is, you don't know what XR will be in two years, so this statement doesn't make a lot of sense. And, of course, this all assumes Avatar 2 manages to sell the same number of tickets as the original did. Edit: And for the record, I'll probably join your club, but you're counting chickens before your eggs have hatched.

People really should not disregard exchange rates. In that respect, Avatar released in just about the perfect climate. The dollar was incredibly weak in early 2010.

Come on, man.

Good God no it isn't.

I think so, or at least we have industry estimates. It appears it's up from Asgard to 28.3.

There are definitely some major differences this model doesn't capture. For example, I suspect that, on average, school holidays are shifted a week further back this year than they were in 2006. My high school was back in session on the 2nd of January that year, but in 2018 they don't start the new year until January 8.

Like I said, I just followed the overall market drops and gains from 2006. I didn't know where it would end up when I started, and I was frankly surprised it landed as high as it did, so I'm not sure "optimistic" would be the word.

Just for shits and giggles I modeled TLJ through the holidays using the "Top-12" drops and gains from 2006 (from BOM). The deviations in my model are: I used a steeper drop for today's number to account for yesterday's Discount Tuesday effect, and I sometimes rounded in the tenths of million place to save myself some work. Date Weekday Daily % change Through 25-Dec 395.6 26-Dec Tuesday 28.2 27-Dec Wednesday 22.6 -20% 28-Dec Thursday 21.4 -5% 29-Dec Friday 25.9 21% 30-Dec Saturday 27.5 6% 31-Dec Sunday 18.1 -34% WKND-3 71.6 1-Jan Monday 21.8 20% WKND-4 93.3 2-Jan Tuesday 10.9 -50% 3-Jan Wednesday 7.3 -33% 4-Jan Thursday 6.9 -5% 5-Jan Friday 16.0 131% 6-Jan Saturday 21.6 35% 7-Jan Sunday 12.5 -42% WKND 50.1 CUME 636.4 From that point in its run forward, RO made another $55M or so. If TLJ can match that, it would get to $691M, so within spitting distance.

It is for me as well. But on the flip side, I think we all would have been pretty impressed if TFA hit these numbers in 2015.

Just my opinion, but I think part of TLJ's job is to wean the fanbase off of their classic Star Wars expectations, and open up the property to different stories and characters.

If it is I'll be really confused by its run.

Woooops! I meant: Believe it or not, that a typo was. Jeez, that does sound like Yoda. And finally the mystery is solved. Yoda is German. QED.

Believe it or not, that was a typo!

Das ist ok weil, ich viele Fehler auf Deutsch mache. That's ok because I, many mistakes in German make.

Let's just write with German sentence structure. Because that funny would be.

Mein Gott.

Deutsch ist schön? Ich bin mir ganz nicht sicher...

Was ist passiert? Warum sprechen wir jetzt Deutsch?

Well, first, I don't think it's a technically perfect film. But it's nowhere near anything we'd call bad (like the prequels). I can agree with you on some points, but not others. I will remind you that ESB was criticized heavily for its pacing, narrative, and editing during its initial release. I'd love to read your perspectives on these points in the spoiler thread.

Great post. With Disney's investment paid back, I'm not surprised TLJ took some unexpected narrative turns. I think the future of the property depends on its growth away from the Skywalker Saga. That said, I hope we keep seeing stories that follow the main line of episodes.