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hw64

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Everything posted by hw64

  1. hw64
    I'm very confident about it. If you're looking at 20/80 then you need both a relative domestic underperformance (~$700m), $1.7b+ OS-C (pretty much an Avatar-equivalent performance) and $900m+ in China, which is completely out of the question not only because of the market conditions, but also because it would require Avatar 2 to significantly exceed The Battle at Lake Changjin in local currency gross.
  2. hw64
    It won't be — not anywhere even remotely close, exchange rates completely preclude that possibility. At best it'll repeat Avatar's 27/73 or very slightly better (24/76, 25/75), but at worst it's going to be 30/70 or so.
  3. hw64
    Heavily, heavily backloaded. Avatar 2's Saturday presales are fucking 96% of Friday which is incredibly unusual; F8's Saturday presale's were like 45% of Friday at the same point.
  4. hw64
    Just for clarification so nobody is confused by this, when Deadline says up to $200m I'm almost certain they're just referring back to their original projection article here where they say "rival [studios] are bullish at $200m."
  5. hw64
    Tokyo tomorrow, yep, then LA on the 12th.
  6. hw64
    None yet as far as I can see, at least on twitter. Don't think the movie has been screened yet.
  7. hw64
    Highly doubt they're going to go up by 10% again. The reactions, reviews, anticipated audience reception, presales etc. will have largely been priced into their model at this point — they've been the reason for these increases. That's not to say that the model is necessarily going to reflect reality, of course, but I just don't think it's going to increase much from here.
  8. hw64
    This is generally a very good analysis and your maximum figures agree remarkably well with my own. You're a touch higher than my own "maximums" (which have been calculated conservatively, so probably not actual maximums) in dollar gross in a lot of the major European and Asian markets, especially in Japan where you've got a maximum of ¥25b or $184m which would be way above the original Avatar in admissions (my "maximum" in Japan is only just over half of that). And yet, your maximum OS-C figure of $1.71b is actually lower than my own, so I've been trying to figure out where the big discrepancy is, especially in view of your huge Japan figure. And then I saw your Oceania and Europe "rest" figure of €70 or $73.2m. That is grossly low, not only in general but particularly relative to all of your other figures. I'm not even modelling all European countries, and the ones that I am modelling which fall into your European "rest" — Romania, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, Belgium, Austria, Greece, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Hungary — add up to about $135m, and that's without adding in any further minor markets in Oceania and Europe of which there are quite a few. My actual maximum in European "rest" would very likely be $150m+. I haven't done a deep dive into the rest of the figures, but that seems to me to be the most glaring issue here.
  9. hw64
    I'll also join the crowd in saying that I think it's going to be around an $180m opening weekend with the potential to go higher.
  10. hw64
    Paste the links into your browser address bar first to remove all formatting from the text, then copy and paste the text from there into a post. Also make sure to press enter after pasting the link which should trigger the auto-embed.
  11. hw64
    That's a perfectly valid way of measuring overall success and gives credit to a movie for being able to sustain ticket sales at higher ticket prices than the movies released directly around it (which ticket sales comparisons don't), and it does that while also mostly accounting for general ticket price inflation. I personally don't care for it — I'm not particularly interested in a movie's ability to generate revenue and I'm more interested in a movie's popularity with audiences, which is why ticket sales is my measure of choice. As I say, both are perfectly valid measures, the only problem is when someone tries to claim that one or the other is the objectively right way to measure success.
  12. hw64
    If you're talking adjusted box office, then you're talking ticket sales. And that's not an error — adjusting box office gross by normalizing two movies' ticket prices gives you a figure that's directly proportional to ticket sales, which is the most direct measure of the popularity of a movie. I know exactly what you're getting at here Jimbo, and there's definitely an argument to be made that a movie that sells tickets at a higher price (at least insofar as that higher price isn't simply a result of just the general inflation of movie ticket prices) is a better financial product than a movie that sells tickets at a lower price, but it really depends on what you're interested in here, because a movie's ability to generate revenue and a movie's popularity are both valid measures of success. But honestly, though. Likely $3b+ worldwide, highest grossing film of all time three times in a row, can you really ask for more? Going after The Force Awakens domestically in adjusted success (however you want to adjust it) seems a bit greedy. Avatar 2 doesn't need to (and can't) break every record.
  13. hw64
    You have to give The Force Awakens the win here, because it's the reality — The Force Awakens sold significantly more tickets (circa-90m range) than Avatar 2 will sell, and Avatar will almost certainly never be as big a franchise domestically as Star Wars was at its peak. You've got to give the respect where it's due. If you want to flaunt a Jim win, then you can always hold onto the fact that Titanic sold significantly more tickets domestically in its initial theatrical run than any Star Wars movie except A New Hope, and significantly more tickets than even A New Hope in its initial theatrical run. And that Avatar itself, despite its relative domestic weakness, is very nearly on par with The Phantom Menace, one of the most hyped movies of all time, in ticket sales domestically.
  14. hw64
    Yeah that's very likely actually now that we've got day-and-date in China. Helped by a relatively weak 2023 in terms of top-gross potential, but still. First time in movie/box office history.
  15. hw64
    That's definitely not best-case. Avatar 2 is very likely going well above $1.5b before the end of the year in only 18 days and 2 full weekends plus the first two days of the third; in a month (up to and including the full fifth weekend), it could well be in the low-to-mid $2bs and closing in on $2.5b. And even then, that only takes us to the 15th of January, and as far as I'm aware there's still no real competition at that point up until early February.
  16. hw64
    $500m? We're aiming for $6-700m+ here, long as the World Cup doesn't get in the way with a gangbuster final.
  17. hw64
    Yeah I really do think we'll be seeing a big boost from these reactions. Based off of what I'm seeing on twitter, there seems to have been a LOT of fence-sitting on this one, and a fuckton of people are now being won over.
  18. hw64
    Yeah these are getting better and better honestly.
  19. hw64
    About ¥500k or $70k across its first 4 days as of this post. Also it's getting previews on December 15th.
  20. hw64
    Now.
  21. hw64
    No, I don't think the music is the sort of thing that would be NDA'd. I've seen a few people remark on it, and the consensus seems to be that it was just "OK".
  22. hw64
    With NDAs, and the potential to have your career in the film industry damaged if you slip up — the usual stuff, nothing special.
  23. hw64
    Quaritch is heavily tied to spoilers, which is probably why nobody has really mentioned the character or Lang's performance.
  24. hw64
    Thanks for the report, based historian. Happy for you that you got to see the film, and glad you loved it!
  25. hw64
    Big review bump here we come?
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