Jason

There is no statistically significant difference between the average rating of Zootopia and Kubo. What this means is that the difference in average rating between Zootopia and Kubo is too small to be able to draw any conclusions on which film would have a higher rating from a different sample of the same population. If you would consider the Academy and critics to be different populations, then there's even less reason to believe that they would necessarily be in agreement with critics.

I can't find out for certain, but I think it's a result of how the nominees are chosen, which is probably by preferential voting. Candidates in preferential voting are typically eliminated by order of weakest first choice support. The Lego Movie would not have any contingent of animation branch members likely to place it as their first choice, unlike any of the other nominees. With regards to Boxtrolls, it's clear there's a portion of the animation branch that are fans of Laika/stop-motion. My original post focused on a different example (Monster's University), but same idea.

From http://www.zootopianewsnetwork.com/2016/06/more-q-from-byron-howard-and-rich-moore.html From http://thedisneyblog.com/2016/03/02/how-zootopia-was-made-talking-with-disneys-animation-team/

Hmmm. Honestly, I didn't think about that, it's listed by original WW because that's the order I add new films to the table for the most part, and it's pretty trivial for me to sort using a different column in the Excel file when I want to. I just added a table sorting by new WW gross instead of original, in a spoiler tag (for now, anyway) so that the post isn't too large.

Added 10 films to the master table: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Spider-Man 3 Spectre Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Also updated the exchange rate adjustment to be current as of August 19. Archived table as of August 5 (for reference purposes):

It's on track for ~$75M. I wouldn't call that "hugely" disappointing.

The other example that comes to mind, Wallace and Gromit (2005), was up against two other nominees (Corpse Bride, Howl's Moving Castle) that were also from smaller studios and not computer animated. The highest RT score of the computer animated films of that year was 64%, so it's unsurprising that none of them were nominated. Also, I doubt that there's a Disney/Pixar voting bloc amongst the Academy at large that will split votes, it's more likely that the strength of the Disney releases of this year is likely to pull votes from the other nominees as well. However deserving it may be, I think it's very unlikely for Kubo to win.

Mhmm, there were free film screenings at an auditorium that was actually very close to my residence. But it was never anything recent unless it was a niche film.

How's that work? That's one perk of being a student I don't recall having!

No one here is arguing that Nate Parker's actions mean that his films must be low quality films. They're arguing that they don't want to support the film because of his actions, which is different. It is not poisoning the well.

Hint: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_the_well

The Incredibles, Toy Story 2 & 3, Princess Mononoke, The Wind Rises, Howl's Moving Castle. So definitely some potential candidates for top 10.

Is this intended to be a "favourites" list or a "best" list? The two lists would probably look a little different for me. Not sure how well qualified I'd be to judge the latter, actually. Either way, I'm probably going to decline making a list for now because there's a bunch of animated films I haven't seen yet that I'm planning to watch in the next 10 days.

Just did a very quick comparison with exchange rates from now and about a month ago, seems like about a ~2% increase over that time frame for most films in adjusted ER gross, quite minuscule. Figures I have using August 17 ER for HP5, HP6, and DH1 are $543M, $514M, and $529M respectively; DH2 is at $737M.

I actually laughed out loud when I realized this was never even released in China, I was imagining that it had just done poorly (which wouldn't have been as funny imo). Glad it was bumped again, I somehow missed this when it was bumped in May. Might have been too single-mindedly tracking Zootopia's approach to $1B. Thanks @Tele the Jet Baller for being such a good sport about this and not locking/hiding it.

Five nominees is the maximum.

Something I'm not able to determine for certain is what voting system the animation branch members use to determine the list of nominees. All I can find in the Academy rule book is: I'm not sure what weighted average voting means in this context. Reweighted range voting is essentially scoring the films and then using their average scores to determine the nominees. That's a simplification, but the key point is that if that's the system being used, then there are a number of years where the animation branch members rated films quite differently than did critics. It's also a difficult system to "game" on purpose, making it hard to explain the "snubs" that have occurred. On the other hand, if preferential voting is being used, then there's a very simple explanation for the "snubs": weak first choice support. (Typically, the order of elimination in preferential voting is based on weakest first choice support.) For example, imagine that in 2013, nearly all Disney/Pixar affiliates and some of the rest put Frozen as their first choice ahead of Monster's University. Imagine also that some portion of the Dreamworks affiliates put Croods as their first choice. Even if only a small number of members decide their first choice is Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, and The Wind Rises, it's very easy for Monster's University to have the weakest first choice support. It would therefore be eliminated, regardless of the strength of its second choice and third choice support. This would also explain "snubs" such as Tangled (placed behind Toy Story 3) and The Lego Movie (lacking any contingent of members likely to put it as their first choice). I don't think this necessarily means that any of Zootopia, Finding Dory, or Moana will miss a nomination this year, however. In the TS3/Tangled and Frozen/MU examples, there is a clear first choice. In 2012, both Brave and Wreck-It Ralph were nominated, and it's easy to imagine that neither of those would be consistently favoured over the other. That being said, I suspect that it's much more likely for one of the three Disney releases to miss a nomination than either Kubo (there's definitely a first-choice stop motion contingent) or The Red Turtle (strongest indie/foreign contender).

This.

Based on the reviews that have come in so far (assuming random sampling, normal distribution, etc.), most probable final RT score is around 94%. Assuming that any reviews of 3/5, 2.5/4 or higher will be "Fresh", and that non-rated reviews will be have a similar fresh/rotten ratio, then there's about a 15% chance the final score could drop below 90%, and a less than 5% chance the final score could drop below 87%.

Moana Kubo and the Two Strings Beauty and the Beast Queen of Katwe Hacksaw Ridge Rogue One Sing Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Doctor Strange Dunkirk

$307M OS markets opening before July 14. (At $299M as of last weekend, gaining $7M from previous week. Probably at $303M once actuals come in for this week.) $7M Hong Kong $26M Mexico $75M Japan $52M UK $482M US + Canada =$949M Domestic has potential to go a little higher with a labor day expansion. Estimate for OS markets before July 14 is a bit conservative. Japan estimate is from Corpse, UK estimate from Heretic, in the respective country threads. Overall, I would be very surprised if this total falls below $946M. Remaining markets are Norway/Sweden/Finland/Greece/Turkey/Italy/Germany/Austria. If I recall correctly (don't have access to my spreadsheets right now), for Dory to fall short of $50M in the remaining markets it would have to gross less than the ER-adjusted totals of Nemo, TS3, IO, or Zootopia.

Rogue One is Disney. I was assuming that would be one of the top five.

That's interesting, I didn't know that the list of members was even partially available. Too bad we don't know who was invited before 2004.

I would have perceived the latter as plot points as well as emotional reactions. You're giving a plot-related reason (twist/ending) for the emotional reaction. Agree 100%.

I thought this forum's definition of a spoiler is pretty clear. I'm too lazy right now to find a specific post where Tele or one of the other mods explains it, but pretty sure it run something along the lines of "anything not in the trailers or official marketing is a spoiler, scene specifics and plot points are spoilers". I think that's a good definition. If I'm interpreting it correctly, it fits with what I would consider a spoiler. I guess it's true that an emotional reaction to a film (or TV show etc.) is not something in trailers or official marketing, but it's also not even close to being a scene specific or a plot point. The definition of a spoiler as I've seen stated here before wouldn't lead me to believe an emotional reaction should be considered a spoiler, nor would my own experience of what friends and family would rather not be told. I also do not personally consider an emotional reaction to be a spoiler. I don't think "spoiler-free" culture has gone too far in general. Outside of these forums, people can be surprisingly assinine about spoilers. (I had a BIG Zootopia spoiler dropped on me that way, I now make a point of avoiding reading about films I intend to watch.) If we're talking about these forums specifically, I'm not sure, I don't feel I've paid close enough attention to enough of the threads to be able to judge. I don't have an opinion on what the difference is between a minor and major spoiler. In public, I don't think there needs to be any time-based rule on discussion of spoilers of any kind, because it takes just a few seconds to ask the people you're speaking to if they've seen the film or TV show in question, and if not whether they care if you continue to talk about it. Online, definitely not while a film is still in theatrical release. Not sure about when after that it becomes okay to casually mention plot points, scene specifics etc.