Jason

And that's what I'm afraid of.

Moana.

So you'd bet that if I let my curiosity get the better of me and spend $25 to watch this at TIFF, I'll regret it? Honestly, I was never even into the whole singing contest thing even when it was popular. I'm just hoping they're using it as a vehicle for a more interesting story.

Moana Kubo and the Two Strings Beauty and the Beast Queen of Katwe Hacksaw Ridge Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Sing Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Sausage Party Doctor Strange

Given that this was just announced and there aren't any other rumoured projects in progress, seems most likely that this is the 2020 film and Frozen 2 will be 2019.

Special Edition: Regional/Territorial breakdown for the adjusted ER gross of selected animated films. Adjusted exchange rates are current as of September 9. The following table shows the adjusted ER regional totals as well China and Japan. Asia includes China and Japan but excludes Middle Eastern countries. All figures in US$ millions. The following table shows the adjusted ER gross for the individual territories within each region. All figures in US$ millions. I plan to do one of these for live-action films as well, but I'm still deciding which films would provide a most useful comparison. Recommendations are welcome. (There are too many to show in one table.)

Yep. There are also discounts on Wednesdays for women.

I think box office market expansion is more important for expecting growth in revenue for films rather than the general rate of inflation in the economy. The box office markets that Nemo did well in (Europe + Japan) have not been expanding over the past 13 years, as far as I can tell. Statistics for Japan are here. I can't find exact statistics for Europe but I did find this graph for Europe/Middle East/Africa. (Middle East + Africa is probably about 5-6% of the gross for that entire region, and can safely be ignored.) Dory has definitely been a disappointment in Europe and Japan thus far, I'm not denying that. I just don't think there was any reason to actually expect growth from the original in Europe and Japan. The total adjusted ER gross of Nemo from Europe and Japan is ~$361M. Even if Dory were to have achieved that, reaching $700M would have needed another ~$340M from all other foreign markets. Using adjusted ER grosses, only two animated films have ever done that: Zootopia (~$386M) and Minions (~$383M).

Btw, thanks @peludo for updating the thread title and the first post with a link. Not sure if this is in reply to the post I made in the Finding Dory thread. Anyway, I think over $600M OS is possible, just not probable at current exchange rates. Of the seven animated films that cleared that bar with their original OS gross, only three would have done so at current exchange rates. I don't think anyone expected Frozen or Zootopia to breakout the way they did in Japan and China, respectively. Minions is the only animated film to clear $600M OS in adjusted ER gross without relying on very strong performance in a single market to do so.

Hey, Minions was a well done...

I agree that Dory's OS performance is disappointing, but a lot of the predictions being made for Dory's OS gross were unrealistically high (mine included), taking into consideration just how much the US dollar has strengthened. Here's a table showing the OS gross of a number of recent animated films if the exchange rates at the time of their release were what they are now: At present exchange rates, no animated film would have reached $800M, and of the three that would still have exceeded $600M, two relied on being enormous hits in a specific market. (Frozen in Japan and Zootopia in China.) With present exchange rates I think it's unrealistic to expect more than $600M OS from an animated film. (Mea culpa, the first prediction I posted was $800M )

After updating the exchange rates being used to August 5 (from July 25) and making some corrections for DM2, I now have $771M for Minions and $485M for DM2. Given that our methodology is a little different I'm pretty satisfied with the very close agreement (within 0.5%!). @MinaTakla the Adjusting Exchange Rates thread is now updated:

*Current Status* - Last update to exchange rates as of the date given in the spreadsheet title below. Ticket prices are now using estimates for 2017. Let me know if there's a film you're interested in that's not in the table. @peludo directed me here, so a big thanks to him for that and for starting this project in the first place (his original post). Since he's too busy right now to keep it updated, I'll be giving this a reboot. Right now I have 88 films analyzed, and will be continuing to add films. I am prioritizing films that are at the top of the highest-grossing WW chart. I don't adjust films from before 1998 because of limited availability of data, and prefer not to adjust films that were released before 2006 because of reduced availability of data, but I've made numerous exceptions. Notes on methods: Below is the summary table, using exchange rates as of the date given in the title. Each tab sorts the table to the applicable column. Notes on interpreting the table: Previous tables: August 5, 19; September 9, 23; October 11, 24; November 18, January 10. February 16 spoiler-tagged below. If you'd like to see a regional/country-by-country breakdown for any of these films let me know.

Minions is ~$764M and DM2 is ~$470M.

@fastclock I didn't try to replicate @edroger3's table exactly, but here are tables with columns IO and Zootopia. Also added a column for each that adjusts for changes in the USD exchange rate. (Edit: Corrected original exchange rates for IO. Note that since foreign gross is earned over a period of time the adjustments are an approximation, but should be correct to within a few percent.) Summary table of all regions, all figures in US$ millions: Country-by-country breakdown, all figures in US$ millions:

$19.6M previews $63.3M OD $131.5M OW

Hmmm. So this will actually be screening at 11 am on Saturday at Cineplex theatres as one of their "Family Favourites". Only $3. But I could watch it on Netflix tomorrow. Decisions, decisions...

@MinaTakla Alright, so the markets opened up to the weekend up July 22-24 ("Current Markets") should have a total of close to $100M (individual estimates add up to $99M). Most of those markets have been open for a while, the main source of uncertainty is Argentina, so overall we can pretty confident of that figure. Markets that opened up this past weekend should also be pretty close to $100M (individual estimates add up to $97M), based on opening weekend and the general legginess of those markets for recent animated films. That estimate is probably correct to within $10M, and is unlikely to be off by more than $20M (assuming that there isn't any reason why Pets should be exceptional). The tricky part is the remaining markets. Unlike Finding Dory, not many of the remaining markets are likely to be large (largest is probably China), there are more of them, and the only specific estimates I can find at the moment are for China and South Korea. (thanks @Olive) So I'm going to use the approach I did for the August and September Dory markets and consider them in aggregate. The following table groups the markets by opening date, and shows your original estimates from earlier, a raw unrounded calculation for those markets combined, my (only slightly rounded) estimate, and the adjusted ER totals of Despicable Me 2, Minions, Inside Out, and Zootopia. Comparing the estimated total for the three market groupings where an estimate can be made with some degree of certainty, Despicable Me 2 and Inside Out have a pretty similar total in aggregate, even though on a country-by-country basis there is wide variation. Pets is consistently outperforming Zootopia in aggregate so far. On that basis, I'm predicting about $250M for all remaining markets. Taking into consideration Olive's estimates of $50M for China and $15M for SK, a remaining total of about $190M is in line with DM2's performance in those markets. Total OS estimate for Pets is then 100+100+250 = $450M. I would need to examine a larger set of films to be more sure of the estimate of $250M and how wide of a range to expect. That being said, that estimate doesn't rely on Pets getting a large amount anywhere aside from China, I can't imagine Pets underperforming by more than $50M, and probably not by more than $25M. Without breaking out unexpectedly in China or Japan though (à la Zootopia or Frozen) I also wouldn't expect Pets to outperform that estimate by too much. With about half the OS gross required to hit $400M coming from markets yet to open, I would hesitate to call Pets "locked" for $400M, but I think it's very unlikely for it to miss. Raw data hidden below for anyone who is interested (comments/suggestions welcome if you are!):

Preliminary results - agree with your $200M from current markets. About $100M from markets that opened July 24 or earlier, and another $100M from the markets that opened up this past weekend. Working on remaining markets now.

Thanks, I'll hit it up later today.

I'll give it a shot later today or tomorrow once they've updated the individual totals for current markets, that will make it a little easier. For Dory I used estimates from other international threads where available and otherwise used Nemo/TS3/IO as references for how it might do. What reference points did you use for the remaining markets?

I haven't looked over the numbers in detail and don't have better specific estimates to offer. But in general using conservative estimates for 48 markets will result in a final estimate that is far more unlikely than the individual estimates used to calculate the total. Best practice from a mathematical standpoint is to use median estimates. I think it's reasonable to imagine that on average Pets could outperform your estimates (outside of current markets and the 4 latin american openers from last weekend) by ~25%. That would lead to a median OS estimate of $430M.

Thanks. Haha, I've just been looking at the number of significant figures this whole time to figure out whether it's an actual or not, not sure why I never noticed the colour difference.

1 new Jason Bourne Universal $60,042,540 4,026 $14,914 $60,042,540 3 Hmmm. Seven significant figures for an "estimate" is pretty weird to me. I think it'd be unusual for box office estimates as well, although I'm not completely sure. Edit: Thanks @TalismanRing for pointing out green colour for estimates.

That looks like an actual? So Bourne did hit $60M after all? Edit: My derp. Was going off of number of significant figures, never noticed the green/black colour change for estimates/actuals.