Poseidon

It probably will be coming from a $40m WE, standing at $175m on Jan 1st...it doesn't need great holds from here. With MLK being the next holiday and giving it a soft drop, it's hard to not do it from here with that kind of reception.

Night at a Museum did 5,94 of its 4D. If Jumanji did that, it would end with 345m. I think $250m is pretty much a done deal by now. This should be at $175m, maybe even more, by Jan 1st and January is incredibly weak.

For years we were saying, it was impossible for a movie to gross more than 100m on OW in December... We are pretty new to what a "normal" movie is supposed to do in December after opening to $200m. But here is something to think about: Age of Ultron did 80% of the Multiplier "The Avengers" did. TFA did a 3,77 multiplier. 80% of it is exactly 3.0 or about $660m for TLJ. Another example: The Dark Knight was the Hyped movie and did a 3,3 Mult. The Dark Knight rises did 82% of that. Hype, no Hype. Pretty consistant there...

No, that's surely not what the post is implicating. I expected TLJ to drop to $725 in my yearly forecast, that's what I can give you. My post above has nothing to do with it, though. It's about the facts I know now. That's why I called the run explainable. I can't explain something based on a forecast. I did not know it all along, but I think I understand some factors leading to its run now.

Yeah. I'm wrong. Just like when I expected it to have a jump in the 69-80% range. Where I, to be honest, was wrong, too, but hey, that's how things go. What do I know about BO. Do I think, that reception played its part? Of course I do. The movie had a lot of press, that wasn't kind. Things went perfect for TFA and I also think, that Disney got a bit sloppy there with marketing. Also, a movie a year takes the premium out of the franchise. RO lived off the rest of thy hype, created by TFA but now TLJ is feeling it. Again, we need to realize, in which dimensions we are talking here. Somewhere around 65 Mil people will have seen TLJ in theaters in the USA when all is said and done. This is huge. And it will not get smaller, only because 22m saw it in the first 3 1/2 days. It's still a huge cultural happening, it's just one, that lost some audience on its way, that was never going to be able to hold up to TFA.

People need to understand, that TLJ is just doing what it can as a movie, that wasn't able to create a comparable hype with the General Audience. I said it before. Everything it does is quite normal. Only because TFA did 900m, it doesn't mean, that every hyped up housewife, that saw TFA, was going to come back for a second time. Hype creates an audience, that would usually not see the movie. That's how things go and with an additional amount of competition in 2017, TLJs run ist completely explainable. It's still doing $650m - $700m, still more, than JW, that was a movie going on hype. This only shows, how big of a base audience SW has. It's "small" compared to TFA, but come on, SPider Man doing $400m wasn't a bad number, just because Titanic did $600m a couble of years earlier.

Yeah, because that worked out so well for RO, when it only jumped by 69%, when Sherlock Holmes and MI4 did 147% and 119% jumps in 2011.

TFA and RO had 80% and 69% increases. Why should TLJ jump 120% now? Only because some movie did so 11 years ago? The bigger the scale gets, the slower the increases. We can't forget, that RO and TFA are a league of their own over the holidays in terms of dailies by a huge margin. $30m-$32m on Monday and $35m-$37m should be the expected marks for TLJ.

BTW: Are we sure, cheap tuesday is a thing tomorrow? I checked an AMC and a Regal in NY, and both have no reduced tickets on tuesday.

Percentage jumps are no constants. It doesn't make it a weak CD, if increases are slower, when CE was comparably stronger than it was in recent years. It's something that was going on for a couple of years now. CE overall seems to get more of a moviegoing day recently.

Jumanji should have reached $150m by Jan 1st...

Seems like Deadline underestimated the effect of schools being off there and failed on predicting the evening business off a very strong afternoon. The competition is tough out there.

$28,3m for Star Wars: "I TOLD YOU" $25,5m for Star Wars: "I TOLD YOU" $27,1m for Star Wars: Incesure hesitation Love it. Merry Christmas, May this be a lesson for all the extremes.

Sony is back. $200m guaranteed for Jumanji. Watch Jumanji 2 tank in Summer 2019.

Variety 4 Day estimates: SW: $110m Jumanji $35m PP3: $30m TGS: $14m Downsiszing $7m-$11m Farting Figures: $5m The Post: $1m http://variety.com/2017/film/news/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office-christmas-weekend-1202648308/

Can I have RTH as a single person, because he actually knows how to behave and isn't insulting people left and right on his way through this place.

That's a better number for TLJ. 7,6m for Jumanji would be great. Also, 1,7m for Ferdinand is really strong.

They lost a lot of screens to Jumanji and Greatest Showman yesterday.

Comparing SW to other movies in 2006 probably just doesn't work. It's a huge blockbuster, so expecting it to have a 15% jump on thursday like all the other movies just doesn't seem likely on that scale. It's still posting huge daily numbers, but pretty much every blockbuster of that scale is going down on dailies compared to "normal" releases. "Only" jumping 4% is what I would consider quite normal. This is not TFA. TFA was that 1 in 10 years movie.

According to "The Numbers", TLJ made $16,9m yesterday. Solid. It's your average big blockbuster sequel after a huge start. https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

Oh look, another example of why RT is useless. Jumanji, your rated fresh Family-Movie of the season, sitting at 79% with a 6,2 avg, while The greatest Showman sits at 48% with a 6,0. This is so wrong...

It barely sold anything for the Arclight Locations, though....

Looks like a mix between Narnia and Alice in Wonderland and I really think this should work out for Disney and might even challange Fantastic Beasts 2.

It could have been a part of the future, but even Cameron is helpless when it comes to greedy studiobosses. Still, with decent Quality, 3D Percentages grew even in the not so recent past. The Martian had some pretty decent 3D share if I remeber correctly.

I guess I would go with Marry Poppins Returns for december. I can see it in the High 100s/Low 200s. For the whole Holiday Season, I guess The Grinch should be an easy winner.