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Everything posted by Poseidon
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On thing that bugs me in those hard times for movies: It#s another CFriday 13th, another opportunity missed to have a cheap marketing hook for a horror movie. There are so many out there, why don't they constantly use those 1 or 2 opporunities eah year? It's especially cheep for Social Media activities. It's just sad.
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It's not the discussions annoying me, it's that numbers are buried between them and you can't access them easily. The cryptic stuff makes it even worse. It might not be respectful to complain, but in my opinion it's also not respectful to sit in a position of power having access to what everybody wants and play with said desire. Again, that's just what I feel about it. There will be others accessing this place for hours having fun with it.
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Of course I hope it continues and of course I am very thankful we get access to those numbers due to those posters investing their time providing them. But it just sucks the way it's delivered. Hint dropped. Waiting for clarification. Why do we have to "work" for it? There's no need for those games that do nothing but steal time waiting. But thaat's just my view on that neverending topic. I said it before: This is a Box Office Forum, we discuss numbers. It's not about worshipping the providers. At least it shouldn't be.
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Germany, for a long time, ignored the fact, that money can't buy popcorn. They were greedy, Prices were too high. They accepted the loss of audiences, especially children and families. And with a generation not growing up in cinemas, they won't come when they grow up either. There's always a turning point in a model, where rising box office makes up for missing audiences. Mark G. over at Insidekino was preaching it for years. Well, at least we got that Kinofest runing, finally. But for my taste, again, with prices too high and a wrong spot in the calendar. You just have too keep in mind: This is a country, where you can buy 1 kg of meat for 4€, but can't take your 2 kids to the movies as parents and keep the price tag under 50€ including snacks.
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Just as a reminder: It would be nice if you guys would at least name the source of most of the german numbers over here. that's including trends as well as official charts. There's someone out there working hard to privide those numbers with insidekino.de. At least give him the traffic he deserves instead of just copying the numbers.
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I wouldn't ignore it away. I have the impression for a long time, that Hollywood fails to target younger people effectively every now and then. Social Media campaigns sometimes are just very weak and unfortunately, young people rely veryy much to be influenced by certain peopla nowadays. So if there's no hype in that bubble, I wouldn't be suprised that some kids really don't know that it's out already.
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No, I don't think it's a lock. Of course there's no competition at all, but we've seen many healthy runs over christmas with the Hobbit movies f.e., that dropped off quite a bit after holidays were over. The first Hobbit was at about 80% of its run when holidays were over. Lets say Avatar makes another 1,4m-1,5m admissions by sunday, that puts us in the range of 6,2m. With a Hobbit run from there it'd end at around 7,75m admissions. I think it will do better, but 9m is quite a stretch from there. The next weekend will hint at where the journey is going.
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With a day like christmas eve, looking at a single chain might be kind of vulnerable. You only need a sligthly different closing pattern than in other chains and the results could be all over the place. I guess we just have to wait here. Either way, even 17m would be the second biggest NYE of all time if i'm not mistaken.
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I think it's very well worth it, still. I think your range should be upped to 21-24 for Friday with historic comps. Sherlock Holmes jumped 20,5% in 2011. King Kong even jumped 24% in 2005. So those numbers wouldn't be uncommon. It remains to be seen if the early comparable run to R0 was just an artifact due to weather. The last couple of days seem to point to that conclusion.