Poseidon

So could anybody explain, why Anchorman 2, a sequel to a nearly 10 year old summer comedy, that didn't even do 100m then, would be a "danger" for Hobbit 2s 2013 Christmas-run?

As for Germany: Nearly staying flat or staying flat would be an amazing hold, as that would be close to the LotR-movies and those had their second weekend with full school holiday thursday and friday after christmas and with the push of the two holidays on 25th and 26th of december.

As for France, it's based on wednesday (OD) comparisons, in Germany it's based on reserved seats for the weekend. Weekend looks actually better than for OW and this time we'll have an inflated sunday with monday being christmas eve.

Great jump, yeah, but the tuesday number is lower than what "Arthur Christmas" did last year on dec 20th.If the guardians rise again tomorrow, then it's really great.As for "The Hobbit": Expect some amazing drops from France and Germany and probably all over Europe.

That's ridiculous.China is a new market for cinemas and should be full of multiplexes.There's absolutely no need to cut a movies run if people still want to see it.

If it behaves like "Arthur Christmas" from here, it doesn't even hit 90m.If it behaves like "Tangled" from here, it does 130m.If it behaves like "The Polar Express", it does 105m.I think "The Polar Express" is the movie to compare it to. No "christmas" in its name and not a complete christmas movie.

Depends if audiences see it as a christmas movie, "Arthur Christmas" and "A Christmas Carol" dropped like a rock after christmas, so even 100m aren't locked at the moment. Let's hope it's another "Tangled" over the holidays.But WTF @ SLP. What a horrible job by the studio. That movie could be past 30m right now. It's really time to expand. There was so much space the last two weekends, i just don't get it.

Annoying things in a Box Office forum:1. "Haters". Hating something I didn't like and wasting energy and time is just kind of ridiculous. Most annoying group: The "I haven't even seen the movies, but i have to hate that franchise, because I love a rival franchise"-specialists.2. Being called a hater, when you just analyse numbers and dare to use the word "disappointment".3. Fanboys being in denial and hoping and believing for the best.Yes, annoying, but the forum would be lifeless and dead without them, wouldn't it?

That's pretty conservative for best case, as we know, that Imax 3D movies can have very strong sunday holds. And as for saturday bump: We don't have a compareable case for a movie in december with such a big midnight number. If it plays like a family movie after a massive fanboy midnight, then a 25% bump could still be in play, even if Narnia just had a 10% bump. It's unlikely, but that's what a "best case" should be. I would say: Best Case: 37,5 32 25,5 -------- 95m

So that OD is disappointing, if you thought this would be like Twilight in november.It was never going to be.But really, it's just disappointing, if it doesn't manage to do 300m by february.It's a good CS and i say it again, there is no other family event movie other than Monsters Inc. re-release over the holidays.It WILL pass 300m.

Last week it dropped by 2,3%, while BD2 went up by 0,4%, this week it dropped by just 1,2%, while BD2 went up by 0,7%.No Hobbit effect, yet.

If you do an early calculation, you have to work with the numbers you have at a certain time. Movie A has 20m at 5p.m and ends up with 50m Movie B has 15m at 5p.m and ends up with 50m So movie B had better night shows and if movie C(That would be the Hobbit in this case) is at 10m at 5p.m., it would end up with 25m if it follows movie A and with 33m, if it would follow movie B.

You said it would make 100m with a 35m friday, how would that work without a saturday increase?

Yeah, and so did Harry Potter 5 and Harry Potter 6, and that was in mid-summer.

If you compare the saturdays, then you have to compare it with LOTR opening saturdays and those were all lower than their wednesday opening days and went up by only 19-26% from friday.

Sorry, i don't get your logic then, stating that "franchises tick like a clock" cause that's not what your explanation tells. It never ever is hitting 100m with a 35m friday. You are aware, that those numbers include midnight? So 35m would be a 22m friday, and even in the very unlikely case of it rising by 50% on saturday, it's still way under 100m, so maybe it's time to open your eyes.But again, 85m is still the december record and it probably still hits 300m.

So if franchises tick like a clock... tell me what it means for "The Hobbit" that it's midnight/OD multiplier is probably much lower than ROTKs and most important: What does it mean, that "The Hobbit" (judging by early numbers) is barely beating ROTKs opening wednesday with 10 years of inflation, 3D and more frontloadedness?

@fishnets: There never was a 8m midnight number.

"The Hobbit" really is unpredictable.Originally I thought it would open in the 90s with 8-10m at midnight. (It's still december, right?)Then the midnight numbers came out and I thought, wow, great. But then I questioned myself, if it would behave like a sequel or an original movie. I decided to up my prediction to 105m, something inbetween.And now there are the early numbers and if they became true, it would make "The Hobbit" pretty frontloaded, at least concerning the OW.But as I said before, this is just the start of the holidays and families will decide where the journey goes.Fellowship openend in the mid 40s and we all know where holiday legs lead that movie.Hell, there are movies like Alvin and the Chipmunks doing 200m. Without having seen "The Hobbit", we all know that it's so much better.Critics may be disappointed, but I think they are to harsh with their judgement. "the Hobbit" will definetly be more than a 6.5, when Alvin is a 4.4.

Funniest part of Nikkis article : The 115m+ projection after that OD. Hilarious.Still, 90m would be a good opening, holidays are still to come.

How would it not be, when ROTK beat Star Wars Ep 1, Ep. 2 and Spider Man back then?

It's not that easy, really. Potter 6 nearly doubled Potter 5 midnights and they ended up with nearly the same in cume. Midnights just got way more common so you can't say, that "The Hobbit" holding ROTK admission has something to do with growing fan crowd.It's more about capacities and midnight record today being 5,5 times of 2003-ROTK-record.

13m good or 13m bad? We don't know that. And that's what makes the weekend so interesting. Will it behave like a LOTR sequel with 2012 midnight frontloadedness, or will it play more like an original movie?We know, that it is the midnight record for december, we know, that it's not that much more than what ROTK made, we know, that "The Hobbit" is going to break december record for OW.As mention above, that's gonna be exciting.

Well, we actually don't know that. As far as I know, ROTK broke the midnight record back in 2003 on a wednesday night in december.LotR actually is the mother of big midnight numbers for book adaptions, so it's still early, "the Hobbit" could go from low 40s to mid 50s from here.

That would be a 25% bump on saturday. That's never going to happen, this is after all kind of a sequel.