The Fast and the Furiosa
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Everything posted by The Fast and the Furiosa
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You don’t have a lot of historical data for week 2 films to support this claim 😉
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WB has no one to blame but themselves for how they handled the Spring season. Can’t have that many releases aiming at the same market in such a short span
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Yeah, never really understood that. Opening days are fueled by die hards, WOM determines the rest. Remember when Black Panther was as frontloaded as Civil War day 1? Pepperidge Farms remembers
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Needs a 29.3% increase from true Friday if estimates hold. It might inch it’s way across, but not a given. It’s gonna be really close
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My theater indicated 40. Let’s just meet at the middle at say, 47 mil 😉
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The worry is that Spring Break inflated previews akin to that of a early/late summer release. I mean, have you seen the Gnomes numbers this week? That being said, not out of the realm of possibility
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Welp. I blew it in the last week lol. Congrats @Sheikh
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The only difference I really see here is who Disney decides to give the Avengers Drive In boost to, Black Panther or WiT. Obviously, the latter needs more money, but the former is a better “fit”
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@narniadis You nailed it!
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They’re using Beauty and the Beast as a comparison for the pattern, but I don’t especially love it. I have it closer to 4.7 ish
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I would say that the preview to OD ratio is the main difference across the years. Any other daily trends for the internal weekend multiplier are due to a variety of factors, such as WOM, % schools open, weather, etc
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Different articles on Mojo have said different things for GI Joe previews. The one attached to RPO says 2.5-2.6, the original article from 5 years ago says 2.2. Regardless, judging frontloadedness from a preview number from 5 years ago is crazy. That year Iron Man 3 has an 11.1x off it’s preview, which is basically impossible to do now as a CBM. Use old numbers as trends, not absolutes
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Not like it’s exactly the same, but I saw the same amount of panic when Baby Driver’s opening day was frontloaded. We know how that turned out
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All of this true, but we are talking about a comparison from 5 years ago. It’s the only decent one we have, but the market has definitely changed in terms of those early shows
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It does when the Friday is Good Friday.
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I’m thinking over 3 million for previews, which is solid for a Wednesday night start
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If it skews younger I can definitely see that (and by young I mean college and below). If RPO does better with the older age bracket I can see that Saturday holding even which will bring up Sunday as well
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Saturday should hold near flat with Friday as Han said (more because Friday is huge). For reference, GI Joe 2 jumped 85% from true Thursday 5 years ago. You can drop that some because this may be more frontloaded, but a lot of the public isn’t really aware of the Thursday opening
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This changes everything for me
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Sat and Sunday are going to be easier to predict for everything this weekend. Friday is a crapshoot because of Good Friday. On the one hand, I expect RPO to have less of an increase just because of Wednesday previews alone (GI Joe managed 2.2 into a 10.5 Thursday). On the other hand, how many people know it’s open all day Thursday?
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GI Joe Retaliation did this over Easter Weekend. Not an amazing comparison, but maybe our best one
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Under my watch, no Derby shall be broken | Week 12
The Fast and the Furiosa replied to AndyLL's topic in Box Office Derby
@Exxdee @Sheikh I like this, except let me be first -
It was, but there’s no reason for TR to be as frontloaded as that
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You know, regarding Tomb Raider, it shouldn’t be as frontloaded a movie as one would expect. Now, I’m not saying it won’t be and the presales are slightly disappointing, but TR as a franchise is not rabid from an outsider’s perspective and it’s not nearly as young because the character has been around for so long. Love, Simon is as close to YA as we can get now. Wouldnt be surprised if over 75% of the tickets sold so far are for Thursday/Friday
