JB33

Yeah I'm keeping an open mind to TROS dipping below $20M, which would make sense if Hobbit 2's pattern is anything to go by.

I'm kinda using both. TROS is performing a bit like both except for the weird 50+% drop on Christmas Eve for Anchorman 2, and it obviously will not jump 188% like that did on Christmas Day. Desolation of Smaug seems to be a pretty good comparison so far. The biggest deviation will be Boxing Day. Smaug jumped 76.7% on Christmas Day, then a further 13.1% on Boxing Day Thurs. Now I wouldn't have known any better than to go along with that but tracking here suggests that's not happening for TROS, nor will it jump quite as high as 76.7% on Christmas Day. Could jump as high as 70% though.

Pretty much the number I was targetting (between $20.5M and $20.6M). So far it's following The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug pretty closely (from Smaug's 2nd Sunday and on): Smaug Sunday Dec. 22 drop: -13.5% Skywalker Sunday Dec. 22 drop: -15.1% Smaug Monday Dec. 23 drop: -26.3% Skywalker Sunday Dec. 23 drop: -27.1% Smaug Tuesday Dec. 24 drop: -32.7 The exact same drop applied to Skywalker would give it a $19,779,367 Christmas Eve gross. Although it looks like Skywalker is going to drop a little softer than that but not match Smaug's Christmas Day jump of 76.7%. @Jedi Jat suggested that Christmas Day would be +10% of Monday, which would be $32.33M. Let's see if it can jump a little more than that and get close to $35M.

Was this a passion project of Tom Hooper's? You wonder who conceived of this.

I take it we're not getting numbers from Universal or Lionsgate until after Christmas....

And what if the Snyder cut sucks? Fans are just taking Snyder and Co's word for it that it's so great. I don't think WB wants to risk that. They've got a good thing going. It's best for them to continue the forward momentum.

What's your personal impression of next weekend @keysersoze123?

70-80 would be BAD considering TROS is supposed to benefit from the calendar and have a way better 2nd weekend than TLJ's 71.6 2nd weekend.

Where I live in the BC interior it happens almost every summer. It's awful and can get quite dangerous for everyone's respiratory system has you alluded to.

Are you still recovering from Detective Pikachu?

Lack of marketing is THE most telling sign. Radio silence from Illumination regarding this movie. I'd almost expect it to move at this point.

You still going with 28.5-29 Monday?

The other projection I did in the TROS thread was based on the Hobbit 2 pattern. Sorry, the wording there was confusing. You bring up a good point though. There's no way Friday is flat from Monday. Gahd, projections aren't my thing clearly.

Monday 29.4 Tuesday 19.6 Wednesday 34.3 Thursday 30.9 Friday 29.4 Saturday 29.4 Sunday 22.1 2nd weekend total: 80.9 10-day total: $372.48M A more realistic projection than the one I did in the TROS thread, based on The Hobbit 2 pattern in 2013. However, this one seems a little conservative. Next weekend should be well over that 80.9 number.

I would hope so. Tuesday we're looking at roughly $20M and I would hope for about a 70-75% Christmas Day jump for $34M to $35M.

Fair enough. I can only comment on my own experiences with him or whatever I personally witnessed of his posts. When he was exiled or whatever I wasn't around often at that time so there was probably lots I missed.

Yeah, makes sense. But I want to believe....

He was rough around the edges but he wasn't nearly as bad as folks here make him out to be.

You have Boxing Day decreasing? I guess that's the main deviation from how Hobbit 2 performed in 2013 (besides being smaller numbers of course).

@EmpireCity needs to come back and enter the Frey.

Nice!! Are you seeing this too @Jedi Jat? I know you said 28.5 a but ago. 29.5 however would be right in line with Hobbit 2's Monday the 23rd drop.

Hoping for a softer Christmas Eve drop to balance that out a bit.

Per @Jedi Jat Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | $28.5M Jumanji: The Next Level | $7.4M Frozen II | $4.65M - $4.75M

Estimates later this evening. Maybe pretty soon from @Jedi Jat. Looking like between 28 and 30m.

That's disappointing. I was really looking forward to Bombshell. Then again, maybe it's just the lead trio of actresses that had me hyped. Still going to see it if it comes to my local.