Barnack

Considering that the last 2 Darren Aronofsky played around 30% dbo / 70% intl and that IT will be an USA/UK/Australia alone type of really big phenomenon, not really sure it would have been worth it to loose Venice festival (and others like Toronto) buzz just to not be in IT second weekends legs. A large portion of the audience will be different, hard to imagine someone hesitating between American Assassin and Aronofsky latest passion project. Chance are that foreign will be the big market for this, Black Swan was a 222m foreign total monster after all. Last September 3 R-rated for adult movie Sully (35)/Mag 7 (34)/Deepwater Horizon (20m) opened 20m or more with all ok legs (3.57, 2.7, 3.03 relative to their audience reaction and Mag7 being a remake of a popular property), mother! is probably more targeting a 10-14m type of OW, it does not need that much space domestic wise.

With subtitle......... that Gibson achieved commercial success with 2 movie in mostly unknown or death language is just crazy.

Maybe legs wise, but when talking OW do people knew from marketing if one is a slow burn and not the others, OW cannot really be affected that much by what the movie actually is, no ? I would imagine that the Director name (or more precisely the From the director of black swan and Requiem from a Dream) and cast is the only reason they are predicting to make 259% of what It came at night did and 144% of the Witch.

You are both being a bit too bullish imo, no way an small original movie without a giant marketing has a 20m OW minimum floor, (well many giant movie with giant year's long marketing do not even achieve that), we live in a world that a giant $200M Disney movie like Tomorrowland with 2 year's of massive marketing including Superbowls ads, starring Clooney, made by Brad Bird, 10 minute previews playing before Age of Ultron and so on did $33m and that GITS/Valerian/Baywatch/Atomic Blonde didn't do 20m. Let alone a very small scale original movie that look artsy, when was the last one to open at $20m ? what comparable do you have in mind ? The Witches had a whole year of buzz, some of the best reviews ever for an horror movie, 2000 theater, didn't do $9m. Even Drive made only $11.3m and they did spent a bit like an action blockbuster on is domestic theatrical release on it. Maybe the hype will grow but right now it is not really that superior to movie that will not open at 20m like American Assasin (AA being a franchise movie need to be corrected down a bit, but still, we would not say that American Made floor is $20m): Rankings Movie Diff from Yesterday Total Likes 1 Girls Trip +2,837 286,708 2 Maze Runner: The Death Cure +1,729 3,481,856 3 Blade Runner 2049 +1,523 1,417,712 4 It (2017) +1,485 1,150,440 5 American Made +1,239 82,822 6 Dunkirk +1,233 626,140 7 I Can Only Imagine +949 118,366 8 Star Wars: The Last Jedi +878 19,013,104 9 mother! +840 94,050 10 American Assassin +822 126,538 Youtube trailers views August 20 - August 26, 2017: 1 IT (Warner / New Line) 1.070 M 49.048 M Sep. 8, 2017 4 2 Thor: Ragnarok (Disney) 952 K 85.908 M Nov. 3, 2017 4 3 Justice League (Warner Bros.) 832 K 73.393 M Nov. 17, 2017 4 4 Alpha (Sony / Columbia) 680 K 4.750 M Mar. 2, 2018 2 5 The LEGO Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.) 625 K 14.006 M Sep. 22, 2017 5 6 American Assassin (Lionsgate / CBS Films) 552 K 8.085 M Sep. 15, 2017 8 7 Flatliners (Sony / Screen Gems) 509 K 6.236 M Sep. 29, 2017 2 8 mother! (Paramount) 351 K 8.405 M Sep. 15, 2017 6 9 Pitch Perfect 3 (Universal) 341 K 16.016 M Dec. 22, 2017 2 10 Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) 235 K 46.372 M Dec. 15, 2017 2 Not surprising for box office pro to stay with it as a bit bigger The Witch, about to double It come at Night, until some hype actually start, if it does.

Are those theater count prediction made by people just guessing like they do for the box office, or their is more to that to those numbers ?

Right now in the multiplex closest to my job Close encounter is playing, T2 and....... Diary of a whimpy kid/Boss Baby Tomorrow they play a power rangers movie & Sound of Music, Sunday they play captain underpants and live stream a Peter Pan theater play. With what is in theater right now, it is hard to imagine Close Encounter has not a big enough phenomenons for 900 theaters, it will not even be the smallest box office for a nearly 1000 theater movie this weekend and did cost nothing to do (unlike the millions spent on the 3D of T2)

1) More theater 2) Fans of T2 has the bluray at home more I would guess, vaster proportions of the Close Encounter fans have not seen it in decades. 3) Typical T2 fans is probably not really happy with the adding of 3D to their classic. 4) The franchise was cheapened so much with all those tv/movie products. Not sure about the more forgotten part box office of re-release is probably a better metric than anything Internet related that can give an impression, would be a terribly misleading metric to use specially considering the age group of that classic fanbase. The 1968 jungle book was less forgotten that many people would have thought 5 year's ago I would bet.

I will take opinion of people that have seen the movie over speculation obviously, but remember that with the new oscar system, 5% of the #1 vote get you in automatically (and if there is some strong consensus at the top they are quickly removed from the equation for the rests), repulsive make it impossible to win anything (or even be in the race for it), but if you achieve to be still seen, you really do not need to be in the wheelhouse of that large proportion of voters to have some chance.

That would be around friday the 13th remake unadjusted box office ? In "2017 ticket price", 5 R-rated horror movie remake did more than 40m: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=horrorremake.htm&sort=opengross&order=DESC&adjust_yr=2017&p=.htm 1 2 The Haunting DW $159,969,500 2,881 $58,511,500 2,808 7/23/99 2 3 The Grudge Sony $157,986,300 3,348 $56,015,200 3,245 10/22/04 3 5 The Ring Two DW $105,724,800 3,341 $48,631,800 3,332 3/18/05 4 11 Friday the 13th (2009) WB (NL) $77,462,200 3,105 $48,347,300 3,105 2/13/09 5 4 The Texas Chainsaw Massacre NL $118,769,600 3,018 $41,418,900 3,016 10/17/03 And none got close to 4000 theater to do it. The Ring adjusted seem like the absolute floor minimum at this point.

Yes in the sense you cannot be under 18 even with a guardian over 18 with you (a bit of a NC-18 equivalent), but I would doubt that it carry the weight of the NC-17 in term of less theater agreeing to play it or not and people caring about ratings like in the US. (that is a very american thing I think)

I think it is ok to judge how it connected with is home video performance over time, specially because that it was an unrated movie that never played in any mainstream theater to have any chance. It is still a movie that is use in day to day talk by people (it was even used in Kraft diner tv ads at some points), it certainly connected, that why marketing put from the director of Requiem of a dream on poster.

The court case that was filed: https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/HASBRO.pdf

Box office after the Oscar nomination annoucement of movie released before september in the past: Hurt locker 4.3m Beast: $1.5m Boyhood: $979k Midnight in paris: $300k Winter bone: $260k Grand budapest hotel: $215k The help: $100k Fury Road: $0 Hell or high water : $0 Tree of Life: $0 Toy story 3: 0 Kids of All rights: 0 Inception: 0 Up: 0 District 9: 0 Inglorious bastard: 0 When talking early release date, Oscar can help the winner or very small movie that have people learning about them for the first time by the Oscar nomination annoucement. For a movie that achieved complete saturation (almost anyone that would care about the Oscar are already aware of Dunkirk) like Dunkirk with that release date (DVD release in november) I'm not sure the Oscar can have any effect box office wise, outside winning best picture and even then should not be big. It is about helping home video performance at that point. Box office wise, it is more the Golden Globes that matter.

Rated 18 in the UK (no one allowed below 18, a bit like an NC-17 but NC-18) for strong violence: http://www.bbfc.co.uk/releases/mother-2017 I would imagine very few studio movie get an 18 rating (Logan didn't, The Revenant didn't) Wolf of Wall Street was rated '18' too and was not an hard movie to watch at all.

If that 50m is true it was probably not all in pre-sales thought, a large portion of the movie was co-finance (around 106-120 million of those 196 million euro were from Eurocorp the rest were from co-investor) Would be logic for someone being 27.9% the owner to finance around 50m of a 200m movie (and own 27.6 of it).

Since is first monday BodyGuard: 21.247m (total of 42.63) Let's be cops during the same period (first monday to tuesday of week 2): 21.166m Bit lower than that 108% of is Sunday, very comparable. So if it continue to do exactly like Let's be cops, it would finish around 77m for an excellent 3.6x multiplier, would expect the total to be around 77m +/- 5%

I would imagine that is a tentative to create buzz screening more than anything else (too late to be for testing stuff to change anything to the movie), inviting any SAG member they know (Bourdain did work on paramounts stuff in the past) with an online following would do the job.

Hard to have nything all time low when talking about unadjusted box office... that does not make much sense, only 14 movie opened at 6m or in the 52 weekend of 1982, imagine in 1955..... Quick search for weekend with no movie reaching 6m In February 1995: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=1995&wknd=05&p=.htm In September 2000 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2000&wknd=37&p=.htm Latest with nothing reaching 8m: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2008&wknd=36&p=.htm

Yes has a general rules (they can always make exception) if you play at Venice it need to be the first place you play in the world, like Canne.

Would be nice, a bit like what Marvel Knights (ghostrider/punisher movies) was: http://www.imdb.com/company/co0255123?ref_=ttco_co_2 I expect them to do it one day (and use it has a banner for their Netflix stuff), maybe not soon (I would not touch that money printing machine that work so well with family) but if there is a sign of decline.

It was always pretty much certain they would do campaign for both those movie a nice 3.4/4m minimum phase for both imo, pushing for a Serkis special awards and the techs hard, and it is supporting actor for Logan, I'm not sure anything changed here.

What is the implication you are making here ? That apes is a big competition for the voters voting some blockbuster in ?

Well hustle was #46 in oversea box office, Sniper was #27 in oversea box office those year, they still performed better or equal in the UK (very compatible market) than in the average foreign market. Hustle #21 in the UK, not that different than number #17 domestic. Captain America: The First Avenger, finishing number 34 would probably be a better example of American in the name probably hurting him a little bit in foreign markets. Still in the UK: American Sniper: 3.8m, $20.7m total / 197m oversea total Captain america first avengers: 4,9m OW, 14.7m total / 193m oversea total American hustle: platform release, $22.5m total / 101m oversea total American Made: 1,374,742 OW Not adjusted for the exchange rate.

War dogs Australia OW: 1,068,111 UK OW: 1,320,806 New zealand:137,677 American Made Australia OW: 1,696,902 UK OW: 1,374,742 New Zealand: 144,164 War dogs ended up doing: 43,200,000 oversea / 43m domestic. With Tom Cruise we should expect an higher Intl/Dom ratio and better performance in Asia/South America/Russia and a release in more markets like Japan. But in English speaking market more similar to the US, even thought it is opening clearly higher, it is not far from War Dogs.

Jurassic World made : $141,895 day 89 Jurassic World made 4.681 million after day 88.