Jump to content

Barnack

Free Account+
  • Posts

    15,067
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Everything posted by Barnack

  1. That the distinction, it never will (except if Netflix start a bonus structure based on views we do not known about). All the back end deals talent are use to get is paid upfront, that why a Ryan Reynolds get a $27M salary for a non sequel. A ok yes, you are right the rumor is not that it was being shop at apple+/netflix for $200M, is that Paramount walked out because it ballooned at over $200M: The project, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” had been slated for production at ViacomCBS Inc.’s Paramount Pictures, but then the movie’s cost ballooned to more than $200 million, another person familiar with the matter said. (I.E. could be shop for quite more on streaming)
  2. Once you put how much talent made after the release it would not surprise me if The Revenant was not far if not around that price tag $200M, Netflix (if they do not start some bonus structure) will have to pay all of it upfront. Django Unchained budget went from 87M net after a generous tax credit to over 164M after you consider Tarantino-DiCaprio-Fox-Jackson-etc... payday.
  3. There is probably some: - Hey DiCaprio do you want to make a Netflix movie ? - Why would I ever consider doing that right now ? - It is a so ambitious Scorsese feature that not even if it star you in the lead that a studio will have an hard time greenlight it and you will be paid $60M. - Ok then. I am not sure how much someone use to 20M + 10/15% gross (so often a 50M+ payday) would cost to get on streaming where 100% of the money is upfront but if Ryan Reynolds rumors salary is an indication, a lot.
  4. It would have imagine that the demands for cubs would be magnitude higher than for adults and that the adult lifetime is magnitude longer than the cubs lifetime making the solution of killings a percentage of them almost inevitable or least the externality of their later in life costs is not fully taken by those who profits of the cubs (by selling them or having fun with them), now it is still a debate if it is a bad think if they are killed in a way that cause no suffering but I really doubt that all cubs become adults.
  5. Tend to be on TV yes I think, thus it's explosion in studios annual report while Home Video going down. At least that what I saw in annual report, sony leak and so on. If you look the netflix/starz revenue slate here: https://wikileaks.org/sony/docs/05/5. US Distribution/Starz/NETFLIX_quarterly inst scenario (42 mos)_FY13 MPG slate (JH).xlsx You can see The Guard making 1.761 million from Streaming for it's first 42 month (in the USA market alone) Here if you go to Guard, The: https://wikileaks.org/sony/docs/03_03/MKTGFIN/Kathy Binder/Film Performance/Film_Performance 201408.pdf If you go see the line Domestic Pay TV revenue, it is almost the same amount 1,770 Same goes with Amazing Spider Man, 15.443 million, the domestic pay tv revenue is also the same exact 15,443 million numbers showing up.
  6. That $5M participation for a big success like that would be quite extraordinary (I imagine it is rare they have that mix of youngish-not that big name director/writer/cast, a more regular 25-40M if names were more involved would have probably lead to the profit level you had in mind. But a movie that does significantly more than is not that small budget domestic is bound to be quite profitable normally.
  7. I am not sure what you inferring here, it is not like we are looking at a At&t excel sheet. $123M would have been big for TV in the past but in this era it look like TV is cannibalizing all other revenues sources and home ent are getting near $0 according to that estimate. If you take a very similar performer of the last era just before this (after dvd collapse but before OTT svod): https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Hotel-Transylvania#tab=summary Domestic Box Office $148,313,048 Details International Box Office $230,192,764 Details Worldwide Box Office $378,505,812 That made 200.7M after the theatrical windows, just less from TV more from Home ent.
  8. Everything marketing wise starting by the naming convention have been weird about this imo, HBO Now, HBO Max, HBO,it is apparently unclear if you get your HBO Now via roku or apple tv if you will be transfered to Max free and automatically like if you have it via your HBO. It is obviously messier to have a service via Youtube, regular cable and so on than a pure OTT only on their own app a la Netflix, but still seem overly complicated and unclear. Why still have Hbo Now at all, seem making things overly complicated. And there is a ads version in plan to make things even more complex. And that in the USA, rest of the world seem even more complicated.
  9. That very dependant on your goal in life, when you are talking about someone that could probably live from residual for their rest of their life even if they lost their fortune for some reason it is different. If we would have went in 2017 and tell people that her IMDB would look like this : 2019Little Women Meg March 2017/IThe Circle Mae 2017/IBeauty and the Beast Belle With no announced project after the 1.3 billion Beauty and the beast, many would have found it strange, but I doubt she is trying to maximize her revenues.
  10. Usually they say 70% of the runtimes (including the generic), there was some strange different for a tv series (The Witcher maybe?) but for movies it seem to have been that rules since at least Sandra Bullock the Bird Box.
  11. That would be strange to not have any of the usual streaming champion in here, in 2018 friends, the office, grey anatomy, ncis, was pretty much most of netflix bandwith: https://www.adweek.com/tv-video/the-office-friends-and-greys-anatomy-were-netflixs-most-streamed-shows-last-year/ A I guess viewership and minutes/bandwith will be really difference, has one person will have watched thousand of minutes of friends/office.
  12. Will need to define successful here, it is I imagine a bit more complex than raw numbers, according to this if we look what look like only Netflix productions https://time.com/5697802/most-popular-shows-movies-netflix/ The Witcher (2019): 76 million views Murder Mystery (2019): 73 million views Triple Frontier (2019): 63 million views The Perfect Date (2019): 48 million views Tall Girl (2019): 41 million views The Highwaymen (2019): 40 million views Secret Obsession (2019): 40 million views Our Planet (2019): 33 million views Always Be My Maybe (2019): 32 million Unbelievable (2019): 32 million views Otherhood (2019): 29 million views The Irishman (2019): 26.4 million views El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie (2019): 25.7 million views When They See Us (2019): 25 million views Fyre: The Greatest Party That Never Happened (2019): 20 million views Hard to call success something with that big of a budget and ambitious doing 60% of something like The Highwaymen ($40M budget, 57% on RT way way less talked about, that could indicate that most that started The Irishman didn't reach the 70% of the runtime mark, but still better than Mariage Story it seem), but how precise are the numbers/projection of what the lifetime views could be based on early numbers projections, how many people got or kept an account in part just to watch that movie could be bigger than some Adam Sandler that is way more watched by people that watch it just because it is free on their already paid for account. What it mean in visibility (to the public but also to the talents and so on)
  13. To think that they should have focused for a multiple months complete shutdown of the industry seem captain hindsight and what they could have done ? The dividend and buy back of AMC in 2020 are virtually nothing (it is for how much in total 2 million of dollar ?). I am not sure why it would be a big issue if theater chain declare bankruptcy if theater closes for months (or any sign that they were not well run).
  14. If that the case (lot of retired people lived from those, like buybacks) can I ask you why you mentioned the 3 year of planned buyback (that will probably not occur) announced in February, but not the fact they still went recently with a very small but still made one dividend ? You did focus on one and not the other, was there any reason (or simply that you didn't knew they still had a dividend payment made in march ?) And for example, why the word Even dividends and not of course dividend has well ? I am not sure how relevant for how long the shutdown have been on, what matter is what the reasonable expectation of how long it will be. In term of 0 revenues, a month is ridiculously long for a movie theater and not something they should plan for it to happen. We are probably much better for them to run has if it will not happen for 100 years and for them to declare bankruptcy when it happen. Theater pretty much never stopped in the history of the USA, not during the spanish flu, not during WW2 and they are in the verge of bankruptcy not just after a month of shutdown, but with a month of shutdown with the quasi absolute certitude that it will be longer than that. This is asking of company to plan for never in a century type of events. And the people owning that debt, the people waiting for their rent money from AMC and a long list.
  15. They slashed dividend and executives salary to pay for that and the buypack was a plan for the next 3 years. They have 104.05 millions share today, they had 104.24M share in february (and 103.85 M in dec 31, i.e. they made more share than bought back in recent time), and considering their rents is close to a billion a year and that they have 10.3 billion debt...... that 200K share bought backs is virtually irrelevant (that what 1.4 millions dollars). You could be a good person to ask this, is there a reason why you are looking more at buy back than dividend payments ? It is something I saw a lot lately, not sure yet why there is a big difference made between the 2.
  16. True physical / non physical is often conflated with digital (maybe CD being so old by now than the content being digital is already assumed by now), specially in gaming when non-digital game stopped to be a think so long ago (and never were in people house). It certainly could accelerate the trend.
  17. Was there much analog screen left ? Outside some movie still using film on location, the industry was pretty much already all digital from editing to consumption in 2020 I think.
  18. That will be an net impact if the location isn't rented by a competitor next year (and if it is the case, being spun has a business decision could be well true). We already had sign of government accepting of the possibility of studio's starting to own movie theater again...... I guess that a remote possibility if the business stay really weak for 18-30 month, maybe Disney and co. could start owning the theater again.
  19. Well not necessarily, we are talking about an event that never occured in American History before, could easily argue that it would be poorly managed to not go down quick under the current situation (i.e. risk taking/investment was too low). And it will be strange to not go under quick if you are certain that it will happen because of a never before very long situation.
  20. Could be different in different market, Canada could be different, I do not get much of those either (except if I just clicked on one close to it)
  21. Success I imagine... but consistency ? The Wire, Deadwood, Rome, Sopranos, 30 Rock, etc.... didn't go down like GoT. It is true that Dexter stopped to make sense around season 3 or so (never at work, never at home when you have a wife at home and a sister at work got surrealist quick, the concept was for a mini series or 2-3 season max, not a long running affair), but you can still be good with absurd protagonist.
  22. Yeha I am not sure how big Fandango VOD is and how representative it is.
  23. IF you use HDMI with feature like 4K and HFR (or play video games on a tv), it could interesting to look what version of HDMI your cable use depending if your TV and video card can support hdmi 2 for example . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HDMI#Main_specifications For 60 hz in 4K, you need at least 1.3/1.4B if not 2.0, for 120 hz, 2.0+
  24. I think giant movie leaving little cultural impact is more the norm now than the exception. Rogue One and Finding Dory, Invincible 2 for example, imagine the place Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom will have in 2025 if you think Catching fire presence in 2020 is strangely low. It is maybe even rare outside for the first entry of a franchise to have massive cultural relevance (Empire strike back - Godfather 2 are giant but not the norm), so much that talking about the franchise as a whole could become the only way to talk about it. For that I would nominate the Dan Brown cinematic universe, the book side is an all time phenomenon and still is quite relevant but the cinematic universe that started with an over 750M first entry is probably close to nil in relevance. In the current top 50 unadjusted, I will not be surprised (if they are not irrelevant now) that in less than 20 year's: Incredibles 2 Rogue One Lion King remake Dory Frozen 2 Toy Story 4 Jurassic World Fallen kingdom Secret life of pets Will be quite low. Everything MCU related will have the chance to be automatically kept alive by MCU marathon.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.