Cooper Legion

It is exactly what it seems like then 😛

Isn’t Thailand one of those where studios report capital only instead of full country for some reason? Or an I thinking of a different SEA territory?

DS finally drops down... to be about even with three weekends ago. With 1.48M off a 130k week, it needs 20% drops to hit 2M. Think it’s favored. GvK with a 325k 4day. Very unlikely to hit 1M, but it could have been worse. That Sat boost was huge.

WW84 is a joke target, it will beat that with OS alone by the 2nd weekend. Tenet is a natural target.

Bah gawd it’s a Rth sighting. BO really is recovering.

200M was perfectly reasonable for BW at the time they decided to spend it, a large profit was likely. It will still probably make money, just not very much.

Good. Twice the comp, double the crumble.

39k OD, Fri looking ~35k, indeed it will be so. Neen kind of a bummer market recently, don’t expect much until like July 9 except possible locals.

Yes, thank you, this x100! The idea of a “bad release date” is mostly self-reinforcing superstition at this point. There’s some received industry wisdom about “so and so date is bad” so studios put their movies that would do bad anywhere on those dates and their movies that would do good anywhere on the so-called “good dates.” But we see time and again that when studios put blockbusters in new areas, they can do just fine, as well as in a classical blockbuster date. GotG proved that for early August. Deadpool and then Black Panther proved it for Feb. It, Venom, Joker proved it for Sep/Oct. January is the remaining month with the most stigma I guess, but the truth is that Marvel could put DS2 there if they wanted and it would do the same 300-400ish that it will in March. BB4L might have already started to dispel the Jan myth for studios.

Damn, $1M OD it is then.

The domestic box office will be booming by June if there’s product as people celebrate the pandemic being over. Perhaps stronger than (adjusted for product) than in 2019. It is conceivable however that studios will continue to delay product because of Europe and LATAM. We’ll have huge logjam in Q3&4 if nobody wants to release anything before July, but I can see how studios might individually prefer a huge logjam and global openess over less competition and some markets closed. Bit of a collective action problem.

Not many, just 5% or so. Will probably lose more screens today with GvK. Speaking of GvK it ended up 35k KOBIS, 8.2k CGV. Could be like 32-40k day if PSm’s haven’t improved recently.

They absolutely would out an Iron Man or Cap movie here in similar circumstances. They’re probably going to have a movie in this slot for quite a few years moving forward. It’s a perfectly fine slot.

Ah, most recent two theatrical exclusives will be Spider-man. Yeah, possible. I’m quite skeptical as you already know. I will say, if PA is doing decent for them, the lack of experimentation with different windows will eventually be a little strange. Shang-Chi could be a good place to experiment with some kind of “PA on 3rd/4th/5th weekend” kind of deal.

Today doesn't prove that this did great. But I would say yeah, it does prove that it didn’t do bad. If they just made Cruella PA, or kept BW in May/June and made them both PA, I’d say “maybe it sucked but they’re still experimenting, hard choices when releasing in a pandemic.” But when you take one of your biggest movies of the year, and then go PA rather than pure theatrical in freaking July — well, they’re still experimenting, but if Raya had gone terrible for them they probably wouldn’t be running it back exactly the same.

Suggests it’s more of a WW84 problem than a piracy problem, no? No matter how rich or poor you are, the ticket equivalence will be the same. $30 is bad compared to one ticket. It’s pretty good compared to 3 tickets.

Sure, for that particular movie. But Disney has also gone a week early in some OS territories on many many MCU solos. It’s hardly outside the norm, is my point. What would be outside the norm, and a good idea imo, but I don't thinks they will do, is going 2-3 weeks early in China.

Eh, they released FFH a week early in China+HK+Japan and they didn’t even have any reason to. They haven’t been as attached to total global simultaneity on smaller movies where there isn’t a global spoiler concern.

Pretty curious about how this does box office now. If they’re smart they’ll release early in key OS markets with piracy (China). Could see something like 200 DOM, 200 China, 300 rest.

There aren’t even two Spider-man MCU films this year, so count me skeptical 😛

Two tiers: regular premium (more monthly, get all PA with no additional charge)

Yeah this is extremely dumb. To echo what others are saying, if they wanted to be caution hybrid in May/June would make sense. Or moving to July and keeping release options open. Moving to July and committing to PA is just wild. Gotta be a combination of 2 things — didn’t like the spring wave in Europe/LATAM, still highly value globally synchronized release PA results have been inconclusive enough to try it with a true blockbuster while they still have the pandemic as cover

It’s evenly spaced between their July release and November release, where else would you put it? Incidentally this is also why I expect the 5th 2022 release to be Sep.