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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    Ah, so they have the state go ahead but not formally local yet 👍 I’m curious just how much of the population can move into orange tomorrow.
  2. Cooper Legion
    If anything speed up. Should be about 38.8+ on March 26. If giveaways hit their budgeted supply, will be over 41B by Apr 9. More pessimistic if they do like 40% of supply, that’s still good for 800k admits and taking it to ~40B. I think it would be able to pick up another 1 from the very tail of the run.
  3. Cooper Legion
    Not sure how well it can leg for the final two months (mid April-mid June). After the 2nd giveaway we will be pretty close to Golden week I guess, if it can keep holding on enough to see a real benefit from that maybe 400 would be possible but it’s definitely on the optimistic side.
  4. Cooper Legion
    Damn
  5. Cooper Legion
    With the giveaway and Dolby push I see it finaling around $390M in Japan (utter insanity of course). Beating 800 with just WW-C should be a breeze. Maybe when China sees that they’ll finally give it release
  6. Cooper Legion
    Much to my surprise, the giveaways appear to be 1M each. The previous giveaways in the first couple months were calibrated to run out before the next one started, so I guess this indicates that they believe they can sell 1M admits the week of the the 27th, but I don’t think I believe that personally. But DS fandom in Japan is truly nuts, maybe a barely new version+ some paraphernalia really will be enough for a big revival 🤷‍♂️ If the giveaway goals hit it would actually get to 30M admits, which is a milestone I had long considered likely out of reach.
  7. Cooper Legion
    Dolby paired with big giveaways in 2 and 3 weeks. Will likely see huge jump on 27th rather than stay flat.
  8. Cooper Legion
    Also to address some of the “surprised at theaters selling before it’s official” stuff — the new tier assignments from the vaccine update were officially announced Friday and went into effect Sun, so it’s all on the up and up. There will just be a 2nd assignment update this week on the usual Tuesday timetable.
  9. Cooper Legion
    The equity quartile just hit 2m on Fri/Sat, and has been pacing some 20-30k per day. Even with some modest acceleration (To, say, a 40k avg), the 4m won’t be hit until late April/early May probably — after BW PS open but just in time for the OW it’s looking like. It won’t have any direct effect on movie reopening except making it pretty easy for everything to move to orange (50%) or yellow (100%) tier. Sacramento county’s metrics look pretty bad, so while I’m optimistic about LA moving to orange before GvK I really doubt Sac will.
  10. Cooper Legion
    Might happen in 3 weeks
  11. Cooper Legion
    Disney marvel really put here saying “LATAM and EMEA who?”
  12. Cooper Legion
    About 50 DOM and 70 OS I guess.
  13. Cooper Legion
    Disney committed to 0-day for exactly one movie. WB committed to 18 or whatever (though they can also reverse). GvK does seem like the first instance where it will really bite them.
  14. Cooper Legion
    After the first two week were just fine, some really incredible late legs from DS here. I think it can settle in around $15M. If there’s no China release it could be the difference between #1 WW or not.
  15. Cooper Legion
    Ah, such stimulating conversation about the Chinese box office specifically in these last few pages. Seems like Chinese Doctors did go to Labor Day, as @Gavin Feng was talking about being rumored. But after DC3+Hi Mom doing ¥10B from same date, I think Doctors and BW can probably coexist alright? If one gets bad reception the legs would suffer more than usual though.
  16. Cooper Legion
    It seems pretty favorable compared to Raya, but yeah, who the heck knows where it’s going over the next couple weeks.
  17. Cooper Legion
    100M Anything above Hulk’s OW would be pretty respectable though, if you want to be more conservative about it.
  18. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, it was long for a WDAS movie but really a story that would have worked better as like an 8 episode series.
  19. Cooper Legion
    It’s interesting that the first two shows have been real duo affairs. Then we get Loki and Ms Marvel, which look like they’ll have a pretty singular focused protagonist. And then Hawkeye is titled like a solo but will actually have more of a pair dynamic I suspect.
  20. Cooper Legion
    Pretty good hold unless there are some new markets.
  21. Cooper Legion
    LA not until next weekend, but it is gaining about 5% TC this weekend from somewhere. 6.7 seems crazy to me, would be quite satisfied with 6.
  22. Cooper Legion
    It’s happening well before May 1. This has been quite evident for weeks, this is just more of the classic Biden lowball (which is a rhetorical tactic I’m totally fine with to be clear — but best to keep it in mind when predicting how things actually go).
  23. Cooper Legion
    Wasn’t it breaking out there like a week ago Or do I have my markets confused?
  24. Cooper Legion
    How much more can HK add? When it finally opens DOM and in a few European territories, passing 800 WW-C looks more and more possible.
  25. Cooper Legion
    MCU movies (Deadpool aside I guess) only get green band trailers so they can theoretically play in front of anything from R to G.
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