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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    I wouldn’t normally do this since different movies have different patterns and this is a very short PS run on top of that. But yesterday hourly trend was spooky close to F2’s D-01, so here’s some stats on F2’s D-00. Daily added PS was 10.5M, and the multipliers were: 6x 12:00 5x 12:40 4x 13:30 3x 15:15
  2. Cooper Legion
    The FSS was like 9-10M, but I guess the lack of an exact figure leads to a funny outcome here 😆
  3. Cooper Legion
    FSS was basically New Mutants sized, about 50% above taking out previews, which did 900k in first two weekdays. Tenet slightly over 21.5 DOM seems right.
  4. Cooper Legion
    Today looks on track to add about 5m to me. Quite similar to F2’s penultimate day. Would be interesting to hit higher OD PS than Tenet, but even if not PSm should be better.
  5. Cooper Legion
    If they don’t like how Mulan does they’ll probably try Soul at $20 for Premium Access. Putting blockbusters immediately for free just doesn’t make any sense.
  6. Cooper Legion
    ∞ PSm
  7. Cooper Legion
    When this could easily be a May or July movie, they don’t need to be aware of it just yet.
  8. Cooper Legion
    Don’t make big money.
  9. Cooper Legion
    I mean, fleeing to the future was obviously going to make more than either theatrical or pvod in the present. There’s just a tension between that, 2021 getting overstuffed, and wanting present cash flow.
  10. Cooper Legion
    ... 🤨 In that case, I think Tenet will leg to a billie
  11. Cooper Legion
    A 20M weekend would look good, but this is like a 10-12M weekend. The rest is from pre-weekend 4 days in US and 9 days in Canada.
  12. Cooper Legion
    Crazy Rich Asians made it by the skin of it’s teeth, but it’s helped by a Wednesday release.
  13. Cooper Legion
    Obviously there is a loooooooooooot of sui generis uncertainty here, and I think it has some (small) chance to mega-leg past a bit past 100, but I am mystified more than ever by the 150-300 DOM range from BOP. If you wanted to hammer home huge uncertainty numerically, why not 50-200 or something?
  14. Cooper Legion
    Considering when I made it I am prettty, prettttty, pretty happy with this prediction.
  15. Cooper Legion
    Wouldn’t expect much Eternal promotion until they feel confident in its current date, which requires being confident in a BW date.
  16. Cooper Legion
    It's down to 8.3 on maoyan now. That's outright below average WOM
  17. Cooper Legion
    People weren’t expecting normalcy. If so I’d be complaining about coming in below 60M. Just because expectations are low doesn’t mean it’s impossible to come below them. We don’t know the number yet, but I think pretty much everyone could agree that doing like 10M FSS would be a really poor result after New Mutants did over 6
  18. Cooper Legion
    To be crystal clear, my apoc face is @the numbers, not @ you for estimating them. Unless WB comes in with 30M tomorrow, then the meaning retroactively switches
  19. Cooper Legion
    WB murdered this weekend thread in the crib. Boo, I say. Booooooooooo.
  20. Cooper Legion
    B+ would have been good, b- bad, b is about expected.
  21. Cooper Legion
    Another very PS heavy day, more like ¥80M current guess. And Maoyan down to 8.5 indeed. 30x2 maybe? Seems like Mulan reception won’t make it a big problem next weekend.
  22. Cooper Legion
    Looks like the Sat bounce will be better than last weekend. $10M should be pretty safe.
  23. Cooper Legion
    Surely the first sentence is reversed from what you meant? Openings might be fairly close now. Not sure I would call the China WOM good, especially since it has some chance to settle at 8.5. More like “okay.”
  24. Cooper Legion
    Tenet down to 8.6 now, hopefully can avoid 8.5. On the other hand, Sat PS above my expectation for sure. 3AM about 25% above Fri should give it a good chance to clear ¥90 today. From there can probably be more like $33 than $30.
  25. Cooper Legion
    Accidental duplicate post
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