Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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Very curious to see how 800 vs Tenet vs Mulan shake out next weekend. 8.7 is nothing to write home about, though early amd could rise. $60 not guaranteed for full run, but probably makes it.
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At first I was like, “wow, shutting down over just one person getting it? Hardcore.” Now it makes sense
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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
Cooper Legion replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
Thought this was more likely, but didn’t want to say with such a small sample. Not sure why FFH last day PS were so crazy at night. -
Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
Cooper Legion replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
If final day PS pace follows F2/CM, about 22.5. If it follows FFH, more like 25.5. Either way it’s pretty solid, about what’s been expected from several days ago. Whether the PSm is more in the range of 2.8ish, 3.3ish, or 3.8ish will be a big difference, we’ll see when we see. -
They didn’t have so much as a script yet anyway, it’s still more than 20 months out. They could hit the original date if they want to.
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Dunno about hitting $10M
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Maybe 2nd week hold actually was nice due to the capacity limits (800 is the first film that we’ve seen clearly bumping up against them in any market, iirc?). The holds were better than the Maoyan anyway, so that would solve the disconnect without needing to assume real WOM >> rating.
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HWR reporting that he wasn’t individually insured and that nobody at Marvel or related to BP had any idea: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-grapples-with-how-to-proceed-on-black-panther-without-chadwick-boseman That is pretty unfortunate imo. I guess they’ll just have to do whatever they think is best then.
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Does 2.7 5-day for Canada mean ~1.6M FSS? Or were the first two days lower than originally expected?
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I wonder if New Mutants will report on weekdays.
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500 would be a pretty big success under the circumstances imo. I’m targeting more like 420 for now (which would also be a solid result), but picture will be much clearer in 7 days.
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A certain contingent (Horror of Lucas, mulderfox, litio) seem to have become obsessed with painting me as a theater hater after I had the audacity to project TENET a bit on the pessimistic side. Thanks for the support, but no need to take them too seriously.
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I’m interested in the 2nd weekend drop because the first went pretty much as Jat expected a couple pages ago, but the 2nd weekend will be a good test of some competing hypothesis that, until we get the 2nd weekend data, are hard to really adjudicate between,
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Almost more interested in the 2nd wknd drop than this weekend. Good debut though.
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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
Cooper Legion replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
Interesting trending so far. Strong first couple days and then slow reminds me of SK a bit, though circumstances are quite different. Not being misled by sneaks, no covid resurgence, but there is very strong local competition unlike in SK. But indeed, in the end it’s the last few days that really decide. -
I’m just going to blissfully assume grosses will be back to normal by summer 2022 and there’s nothing anyone can do to burst my bubble
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It had a pretty good shot OW and WW anyway, and I’m still kind of doubtful about DOM.
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I hope that Ryan and Chadwick had a chance to discuss Chadwick’s wishes for the character before he passed. If those are known, they should be the most important factor.
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Re: movie/franchise repercussions, it seems verrrrrry unlikely to me that they’d try a recast, given the (deserved) blowback it would generate. Feige tends to look to the comics for inspiration, so I think Black Panther 2 will probably have some kind of emotional send off to the character of T’challa and then pass the mantle of Black Panther on to Shuri.
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Wasn’t able to comment before the lock, so first up wanted to echo that this is a really tragic and untimely passing of a titan who had already done so much but had so much more to give and experience 😭😭😭
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Those BOP legs are.... quite something. 25x5 would be really solid in my book.
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I think that can get to about 7.5 for the weekend, ~20 full run? Reception seems pretty bad so far.
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Sat CGV PS just 25k, suggest a day ~150k. Going to fall short of $6M with sneaks then, more 4.5-5.5ish probably depending on how harsh Sun goes.
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Deadline and I will both fall back on our caveat then 👀 should have a good idea in just a handful of hours.
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Me 11 hours ago Deadline 20 minutes ago 😛
