Cooper Legion

FWIW if you remove BP and IM3 it would be like: OW 31.5th -> 134M DOM 58.6th-> 340M OS 56.7th-> 625M WW 52nd-> 961M

Again, to be clear, those are not predictions from me. That’s just what the average performance of Phase 2 and 3 solo movies would translate to in May 2020. There’s plenty of room to argue that Black Widow will do a bit less than average for MCU solos, which have been a pretty crazy bunch overall.

After some further thought, I actually feel geometric mean is likely better to use for ranks (although applying any kind of mean to ordinal data is not entirely kosher ). For instance if median of 2nd, 16th, 16th is just 16th place, but geometric mean is 8th place. Median of 2,2,16 is 2nd place, but geo mean 4th place. Geometric mean peak rank of post TA solos is: OW 22.7th* DOM 42.6th OS 46.2nd WW 38.8th For BW that would be about: OW 151M DOM 380M OS 655M WW 1.03B I’m not actually expecting it to hit that OW, but it’s not *super* outlandish if the marketing clicks. * For this and Median I’m using an estimated equivalent 3 day of 136M for FFH.

How common is this in the market?

Ah, BOM doesn’t have it anymore, but the numbers does: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/ So looks like 615ish by that metric, would be like 995 just adding OS and DOM. Feels reasonable enough.

Yeah, that was more to point out that the average performance of solos since TA has actually been really strong than a super serious considered guess. And interestingly the median OS performance of 58.5th place would probably be better than 580M, since sum of median ranks is not necessarily equal to median rank of sums — it’s just a hassle to look up so I didn’t bother.

I think BW will do just median for a post TA solo.

The top 5 this year is probably going to average over 13M. That is nutter butters.

Well tbf like 35% of the world was...

I’d give better than even odds.

I forgot about their uncanny consistency 🤣 Even if final week pops less than hoped, easy #6 for TROS. #3 perfectly in reach on the high end.

At first I was like “damn, top 5 all 2019.” Then I was like “DAYUM, top 9 all 2019.” Then I was like “Annabelle comes Home??? Ohhhhhh, this is an only 2019 list 🤣” What about all-time import? Can it make top 10?

Cannot wait for F3 in Asia ❄️

Damn, that’s a great hold for Indonesia after such a big OW.

So actuals maybe 290+455, quite nice.

Nope, on the contrary. Here’s today: 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $7,081,307 ($60,715,076) 979,419 (8,583,630) 2,351 78.79% 2 Bring Me Home South Korea Nov 27, 2019 $776,717 ($3,114,347) 104,287 (461,107) 769 8.64% 3 BLACK MONEY South Korea Nov 13, 2019 $593,106 ($16,175,846) 80,425 (2,259,051) 715 6.59% 4 CRAWL U.S. Nov 27, 2019 $168,194 ($752,861) 22,425 (109,574) 557 1.87% 5 Love at Second Sight Belgium,France Nov 27, 2019 $91,902 ($369,122) 12,510 (54,212) 141 1.02% So a roughly 2.59M 2nd weekend, -32.4%. As for Monday, the CGV PS are 31k. Conservatively, PSm may be flat from last Mon or even drop a little, giving as low as 200k (-42% weekly). Optimistically it could have the same PSm bump from a Sunday as last Mon did, giving 245k (-31% weekly). I will actually forecast a modest PSm growth, 113k final CGV, 225k admits for -36% weekly.

I sort of get what you’re saying, but the 360M OW came from a franchise that released 13 movies since 2015.

Actually, funny story about that. I didn’t think it had one, so mom and sister left early. But I stayed just to watch the credits and listen to music. Pleasantly rewarded with a post-credits scene.

Evening was ever so slightly weaker than I thought, probably O/U 990k depending on CGV ratio. Should still be 2nd largest 2nd Sun ever. Initial official estimates available in 40 minutes anyway.

Still looking like it’ll be between 1M and the 2nd Sun record. This movie has been almost creepily predictable so far. I’m feeling quite optimistic about Monday’s drop given the KOBIS patterns, but in 10 hours we’ll have a much better idea.

Not a big secret that I’ll a little on the cooler side toward DC, but the character rumors for this have me hyped as fuck. Existing familiarity with the character doesn’t determine how big CBMs can be as we’ve seen over and over and over this decade. Think this could be a (mini) Aquaman breakout.

Missed this earlier (since thread is 💀) but YAY

WOM is obviously good from the egg and days 4-10. It’s difficult to know when/if it might reach a point where the vast majority of people who were receptive to the idea of seeing it have done so, at which point it could start dropping hard. That’s how Aladdin’s run ended, and I believe also BoRhap, F1, and several other really leggy movies in the market.

Yeah, there is a real concern about hitting demand satiation and then plummeting. That’s why I’m not totally confident in, say, 13. But dropping 45% next week and 60% after still gets past 12, so it seems pretty safe.

Just eliminating the effect of previews and Black Friday, we’re probably looking at about a 40% SS drop (53/88), quite similar to Maleficent 2’s 41% 2nd SS drop. Maleficent will add about 3.5x the 2nd SS, same for F2 would be +183M for about 475M. But with Christmas I think it can do a little better thanks to Christmas.