Cooper Legion
Gold Account-
Posts
23,026 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
17
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Everything posted by Cooper Legion
-
I really think (some) people are underestimating the effect of the calendar on legs. There is an awful lot of business that’s missing from this weekend because people are waiting to see it over the holiday 5-day. Even if days 11+ are normal that should make the multiplier easily 3.5+, with 4 pretty easy to see. Edit: Haha, just read the in between pages to see that the “Good Luck” gif was sincere and not “haha, no way” (an unfortunately very common meaning of “good luck” online). Thanks for the well wishes then. I am optimistic, but it wouldn’t be the first time optimism for this movie has lead me astray
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I'm expecting 40ish atm, but with 4 weeks to go I could really see anywhere from like 35-52. I think The Mandalorian is going to wnd up being worth a couple mil boost, though pretty untestable hypothesis. -
From the first 4 days plus Mon PS I think it’s safe to say an 11-14 mil finish. Personally thinking toward the higher end, bon’t go narrower until more data. Of course that’s the difference between HW #5 and HW #1, so either way — spectacular. Sat-Sun in particular are the most impressive Sat-Sun I know of, and being 2.5x OD+Fri is a clear indication that this is a weekend heavy film and data from at least next Sat will be needed before we know how it’s holding.
-
Yeah, I mean it’s clearly great debuts. But it’s only possible by combination of goodwill for the franchise plus crazy expansion recently. You couldn’t see an OW vs F1 total ratio like that in a developed market no matter how much they showed up this weekend.
-
It is great, but also, aren’t these some of the fastest growing markets in overall size in past 6 years?
-
Bit of a disappointing opening, but vs summer openers it’s deflated by previews, Fri morn/afternoon, Sun night being hit by school. Deflated further by this specific weekend leading a lot of people to wait for the upcoming holiday 5-day. Comparing 10-day cumes will give a better sense of how it’s doing and where it’s going.
-
Jesus, I’ve walked into a quickdraw shootout. Anyway, nice OS opening. Asia pulling a lot of weight but great European debuts too.
-
FFS
-
CGV PS 49k, PSm should roughly double, admits in low 300s and normal 80% drop or so. Will update midday if it’s tracking far up or down from that, otherwise probably not bother.
-
Sun record demolished. Top 4 single days: Endgame Sat~=F2 Sat>F2 Sun>AWTG2 Sat
-
Night will be worse, but morning is even stronger. With 14:20 of 566k, it’s just 22k behind yesterday. I estimate 700k CGV final and about 1.54 admits. Would be a ludicrous -7.5% and 110k over Endgame’s already obscene 1.427 Sun. As always, lots of room to underperform this estimate and be doing bonkers still.
-
Is it just me, or F2 Sat updated down to 1,661,958? Didn’t think SK went that direction with the reporting, but seems like Endgame may have gotten its recount afterall? Meanwhile, while F2 Sat either won or lost Sat record by like, .01%, heading to win Sun record by some 100k admits I’d guess. More infor to follow with 14:20 num.
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Idno, it’s early. 30%? -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
TROS opening above TFA would shock me. The reception to TLJ was mixed, whatever you may think of the movie personally. Not awful, not bad in opinion of median moviegoing, but the legs bore out a substantial contingent of dissatisfied frequent customers of SW movies. Now there’s a perfectly good chance that IX will be loved, and all the “never seeing another SW movie” people go see it (as is often the outcome of such statements). But I don’t honk they’ll be doing it en masse on OW, I think in such a scenario they show up in days 5-50 as WOM spreads. With the finale factor and Mandalorian generating franchise goodwill I can see opening above TLJ (pretty big!). With the “sequel to divisive entry” factor and other currently available info just can’t see my way to opening above TFA.