Cooper Legion

Yeah. You want the finish to be well supported by foreshadowing so it doesn’t just feel impossible/asspull-y and you can feel clever for catching the foreshadowing on rewatches. In this case I would have preferred if it was slightly harder to figure out, but the characters are great fun, paced well, acted well, etc.

My first reaction was “wow, that’s crazy.” Then I checked and realized that Sat presales in SK were already 37% of Friday final Anybody paying more attention to hourlies in this market wanna chime in what the morning rate seems to point to?

Yeah, this is the biggest issue (not really the right word, but 🤷‍♂️). You can kind of see the big “twists” coming from like 30% into the movie, so it lives on its characters rather than the surprise value. Of course there’s a pretty direct tension between including appropriate foreshadowing and having people figure it out early, vs avoiding good foreshadowing and having it come out of nowhere. It’s definitely better overall to have the conclusion well built up to by clues.

Family went to see Knives Out today. They were having projector issues where it would flicker from normal to like half power and back every couple of seconds. I sort of got used to it, but they gave everybody a voucher for a free showing when we were coming out, so that was pretty convenient.

+140% today shouldn’t be too tough. I’m feeling 160 or so.

1) Eternals Black Widow Raya Jumanji WW84 Onward Mulan Soul Red Notice 10)Tenet

Nothing will be final for over a day, though it should be extremely close within 9 hours or so. You can check dailies here in English: http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY Or here in Korean: http://www.kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findDailyBoxOfficeList.do They often differ in initial estimates, but end up on same final number. The Korean source is usually higher and more accurate initially, I think. So I copy pasted from English but replaced the F2 numbers from the Korean source so they’d move less. F2 is heading for a roughly $19 2nd weekend imo, which is craaaazzzzy.

OD was Thursday, down about 33% from last Fri $4.7M It’s definitely a good sign to be dropping in low 30s from such a mega first FSS, but that comes with one main caveat, which is that this 2nd weekend seems to be spillover inflated. So I would not take this to mean that 33% is the “natural” dropping rate for F2. 2nd MTuTh vs first MTuTh and 3rd weekend vs 2nd weekend are what will really tell the tale.

😎 (though 210 final CGV) 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $3,120,083 ($45,052,083) 429,569 (6,427,738) 1,980 70.77% 2 Bring Me Home South Korea Nov 27, 2019 $479,870 ($1,444,745) 66,448 (236,982) 828 10.88% 3 BLACK MONEY South Korea Nov 13, 2019 $347,773 ($14,885,147) 48,722 (2,082,953) 727 7.88% 4 CRAWL U.S. Nov 27, 2019 $121,350 ($370,383) 16,690 (58,515) 601 2.75% 5 Love at Second Sight Belgium,France Nov 27, 2019 $56,935 ($175,335) 7,924 (27,859) 144 1.29% (Took KOBIS numbers for F2, should be more accurate already. Rest are KOBIZ, will rise more) PSm rose just 8% from last weekend, so adjusting my PSm growth expectations to 10% Sat and 12% Sun for now. Sat CGV PS coming in above my rough estimate with a crazy 289k, down just 34% from last Sat and up 12% from Endgame’s 2nd Sat. Times 1.9 gives 545k final CGV, about 1.18M admits. Not sure if any 2nd weekend has seen 1M admit day before, but it’s very safe here as even the pessimistic PSm gives 500k CGV. KOBIS currently is 816k, so estimating 190k for Sun forward. Same point in time last week was 480k, so now 40% as much. I will hold forecasted Sun CGV PS to 245k and forecasted Sun to 1M.

I dunno, maybe when we get into its month of release?

How many different countries and weekends will I have to say “it’s a weekend movie’ in, before this is all done 🤔

Is the real outrage who missed the top 20? No, no. The REAL outrage is when we see whose made the top 20 instead

Only needs the 6-day cume to make top 5

I thought TLK chances were dead after OW, but it does seem to be back on the table. If it hits DOM I think WW is also a possibility, though requiring pretty great OS legs.

🙄

I assumed they meant the 13-14 range. Higher and they’d probably make a bigger deal about the update.

It’s actually fine that AoU flopped with #2 OW and #5 WW, because it was the 2nd worst Avengers movie anyway.

#neverForget People stayed home in the 2nd weekend for their weekly rewatch of the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight, duh.

I’m looking at Fri related to Wed instead of thurs, still like 40-low 40s. If Thrs dips a lot I think that mostly just leads to a bigger black Fri bounce.

Strong disagree. 7 easy, 6 maybe, 5 maaaaaaybe

Just gonna drop this here 1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens $149,202,860 $936,660,090 - 4,134 $36,091 Dec 18, 2015 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures 2 Avengers: Endgame $147,383,211 $858,373,000 - 4,662 $31,613 Apr 26, 2019 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures 3 Avengers: Infinity War $114,774,810 $678,815,482 - 4,474 $25,653 Apr 27, 2018 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures 4 Black Panther $111,658,835 $700,059,566 - 4,020 $27,775 Feb 16, 2018 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures 5 Jurassic World $106,588,440 $652,270,625 - 4,291 $24,840 Jun 12, 2015 Universal Pictures 6 The Avengers $103,052,274 $623,357,910 - 4,349 $23,695 May 4, 2012 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures 7 Beauty and the Beast $90,426,717 $504,014,165 - 4,210 $21,479 Mar 17, 2017 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures 8 The Incredibles 2 $80,347,651 $608,581,744 - 4,410 $18,219 Jun 15, 2018 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Me too, lol. But I’m liking 145+ atm

Ahhh, so... I know it’s early... and it’s Variety... but... WTF? https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-frozen-2-knives-out-thanksgiving-1203419095/ TBF I guess this is basically what you get if you use 24 Wed and a Frozen 1/Coco multi.

Well, 2nd Friday looks like it will be a small drop. We can’t see anything directly for Sat or Sun, but digging around in the thread I see that we estimated 900k tickets for Sat+Sun same time a week ago, so currently is about half that. Let’s I think it’s reasonable to expect better final day or 2 PS growth for 2nd weekend, so for very tentative projection let’s say 60% of last SS PS. That’d give 262k CGV PS on Sat, 245k Sun. Sat PSm should bump around 20%, so call it 540k final CGV, 1.17M admits (-30%). Sun PSm bump maybe 24%, call it 518 final CGV, 1.115M admits (-27%). FSS 2.77M, down 28% from 3.83M. This is all very preliminary, and the 2nd Sat and Sun sizes there almost fail a basic common sense check (for instance, I have F2 2nd Sunday just slightly edging out IW’s first Sun here, so I think it’d be the 3rd largest HW Sun ever). So I’d guess maybe more like -35% for 2.5M admits. Still would be a crazy 2nd weekend, beating Endgame handily. Never tried to extrapolate dailies so far ahead, let’s see how close this gets.