Cooper Legion

If it wants to be an IW, JW3 needs to add 12 or so major well-liked characters and a super compelling main villain. Don’t see where they”d find either of those 😛

That will also happen, adding 10+ DOM, 10+ SK, 10+ Japan still, little bit from rest.

Well that not’s aging well 😛 I’ll be happy if this can hit 150+650 or so, I do like Vanessa Kirby

I don’t wanna be arguing Aladdin vs Endgame anyway. Two best and favorite runs of 2019 🥰 Not that we we haven’t had some pretty nice ones outside of that — CM, Upside, JW3, TS4...

Actual final CGV in bold. EXIT indeed seems to be having a really nice debut. Guessing Aladdin above TLK for the weekend, and above Slop+TDF not that long after. Aug 01, 2019 Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross (Total) Admissions (Total) Number of Screens Revenue Share 1 EXIT South Korea Jul 31, 2019 $2,601,686 ($5,523,923) 380,811 (910,036) 1,322 44.05% 2 The Divine Fury South Korea Jul 31, 2019 $1,088,254 ($3,267,768) 161,196 (567,513) 1,295 18.42% 3 The Secret Life of Pets 2 U.S. Jul 31, 2019 $722,982 ($1,729,606) 115,692 (297,163) 808 12.24% 4 The Lion King U.S. Jul 17, 2019 $564,798 ($31,296,613) 87,325 (4,229,266) 811 9.56% 5 Aladdin U.S. May 23, 2019 $427,863 ($85,923,725) 64,208 (12,000,240) 601 7.24% 6 Red Shoes South Korea Jul 25, 2019 $229,202 ($2,593,587) 37,467 (399,918) 448 3.88% 12M by the skin of its teeth! I’m noticed Aladdin’s CGV ratio went from like 50% before to 55% yesterday and today. Maybe some smaller non-CGV theaters lost it entirely with the new openers? Fri CGV PS: EXIT 46k SLOP2 18k Aladdin 15k TDF 13k TLK 13k

What it really boils down to is this: Finding the cash to go from mid-high hundreds to low billions is not that hard. Plenty of movies have done it historically just by being well received. Finding the cash to go from 2 to 2.8 is squeezing blood from a stone. Nobody with a real understanding of what 2.8 means thought it was possible until several weeks into the presale insanity, and taking expectations from so close to release and after a bunch of hard data to measure surprise would be silly for the same reason it’s silly to take expectations from a month after release to measure surprise.

Actually Aladdin in SK is probably crazier than Endgame Worldwide. I’ve adjusted to it now, but telling somebody that it would surpass Avatar there is perhaps even more absurd than Avatar being passed worldwide. But definitely not Aladdin WW. And if we’re picking single markets there are some where Endgame was crazier than Aladdin in SK.

Overfocusing on % to measure surprise is a mistake. A movie expected to do 10M does 50M, 400% overperformance. More surprising than Black Panther? Hell to the fucking no, since small movies getting good reception and making half a Benjamin happens plenty whereas a February solo SH movie hitting #3 DOM happens approximately never. BP was an absolute shock, maybe close to Endgame, but “only” 100% overperformance or so. % is just easy for small movies. Beating Avatar Worldwide was absolutely lunacy. Much, much, more surprising than what Aladdin is doing in SK, Japan, WW, etc. You've gotta look past pure %, surprise is measured in unlikeliness.

Disagree, but even accepting that premise it’s still 5 more than would say Endgame over Avatar if forced to be fully serious.

Even 2 months before release Endgame over Avatar would have been considered more shocking. People are having some seriously wild changing of the narrative about how crazy it was to beat Avatar, perhaps because it only took one week to go from “impossible” to “looks easy” and then had a “disappointing” crawl there in the end. But for a remake of a humongous, beloved Disney property to end just outside the WW top 30 or so just isn’t close to as surprising.

And I say that as a huge, huge, fan of Aladdin’s run. One of its biggest cheerleaders on this site. It just can’t measure up to what happened end of April, and I’m shocked people seem to forgotten so quickly what that was truly like.

Ask 100 knowledgeable people if Aladdin will get a billie a year ago, at least 50 say yes. If Endgame will will beat Avatar? Maybe you could get to 5 if the Marvel fans put heart over head. I get that Aladdin’s expectations were lowered after marketing and it’s had a lot of impressive weeks due to the leggy nature of the run, which gives it a lot more days in people’s minds of “wow Aladdin sid pretty good today.” But one of the Renaissance big four remakes doing 200M less than BatB is not nearly as big a surprise as Endgame being 730M above any other 2010s movie despite some of the decades worst ERs. The whole run of Aladdin will be less impressive than Endgame’s first 7 days, even when it beats Endgame in SK. There’s no objective metric for these things of course but this case is about as close as you can get.

12:20 - 16:20 - projected final CGV  EXIT 68 ; 119 ; ~170-185 TDF 25 ; 43 ; ~61-66 SLoP2 37 ; 49 ; ~55-62 TLK 26 ; 35 ; ~42-45 Aladdin 23 ; 30 ; ~ 35-38 So vs the culture day OD yesterday, looking roughly: EXIT -23% TDF -58% SLoP2 -30% TLK -25% Aladdin -18% TDF is now down to 86% Egg, seems rather bad to me. Aladdin will be slightly down from last Thursday, but probably up a bit from 2 Thursdays ago when TLK was opening. And it should end *today* with very close to 12M. Early guess weekend will be about 450, but it’s uncertain exactly how much it can rebound from the triple whammy of openers.

Being nearly flat from F8 would be great for it, but Indonesia is one of those markets where flat with a movie 28 months ago is not actually that flat 😛

This is not very considerate to your karma remoras

I guess my “optimistic but not fully dreaming” scenario is something like 75 SK, 175 Japan, 200 China, 600 DOM, 600 rest equals... 1.65?

Indeed 😮

I'm pretty much in agreement with tonytr's range there. You can always hope for being very walkup heavy, but all the warning signs are there for sub-60

Moving over from Mexico since this has nothing to do with Mexico 😛 So the MCU needs 45M more admissions before franchise admissions surpass country population (maybe slightly more if population is growing, but I assume pop is not growing fast if at all). At a rate of 3 movies per year and roughly 1.5/movie, that would take another decade still. If they move up to 4 a year and/or popularity increases to more like 2M average, would take more like 6-7.5 years. Looking forward to it

TS4 has been dropping better the last 4 week or so to catch up to the deficit from Shrek’s MDW. It seems favored to win.

Would it not be the highest? Afaik tell the highest OW to do 4x+ atm is Avatar’s 77x10 (lawl). Or maybe you’re counting WW’s 3.996, which would be quite reasonable. I guess there’s also SM2, Passion of the Christ, and Despicable Me 2 if you go off the 3-day, but in that case FFH will get there as well and be biggest.

Wouldn’t that make the comp lower? Anyway FK is a good example of very walkup-heavy, seems better than the other 5 to me (though, not a super high bar 😛 ).

And as we can see, you are not dead.

Yeah, Europe are a bunch of party poopers I think it’s like 150% for those 9 in SK. Wonder if Brazil or some SE country is over 200%

Rocketman needs a lot of help for 100M Like 3M of help. And it’s not like Paramount has any big double feature possibilities...