I mean, to an extent I can sympathize, but — it’s not like they don’t have access to the data. They haven’t seen the data we have because they haven’t bothered to put in 10 minutes researching where to find good data, despite ostensibly* trying to make half-decent predictions.
*Of course, the reason that she/they don’t have a clue is that they aren’t, actually, trying to make good predictions. They’re trying to draw eyeballs for dat ad money.
2nd Tuesday multipliers:
AoU 23.4
TA 28.6
CA3 18
BP ~28
IM3 23.1
GotG2 23
To pass Titanic and get this year’s first 2 MCU releases in the DOM top 4, IW would need 18.5.
For 700, 22.4.
Comparing to other Mon-Mon drops of big MCU openers (not BP of course, because holiday) it does seem pretty clear now that last Mon was inflated by spillover.
Yeah, there’s a huge glut of solo films around the 100-120 band, but it seems like a mix of high hype movies/sequels with mixed-bad reception and lower hype movies with great reception and solid legs (Ant-Man 1, Doctor Strange are both 8.9 Maoyan if I’m remembering right). I’ve been wondering recently what its chances are of going decisively above that clump.
Presumably when you break the presales record by that much you get saddled with a worse presales multi as a consequence, but it really seems like the DOM OW figure could get topped if things continue going well.
Eyeballing POTUS’s charts, it looks like presales often approximately double from the 58 hours before point. Does that mean we’re looking at low-mid 400s for IW?
Edit: Lol, my timing. That’s could be as much as +40% from FF8, crazy.
I was going to say “wow, if it can keep doubling every few days like this it will overtake IW in no time.” Then I realized that it would actually be below IW even after 8 doublings
Reacting in a calm and neutral manner to fairly medium information is pretty boring. If you just sarcastically exaggerate everything, you end up with a lot more to say.