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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    BW now officially the biggest domestic film so far of the COVID era.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    TSS was at 34879 at MTC2 in the last run I took. Has now fallen below JC's pace after running way faster in the morning. I will update again tonight but it's probably heading for around 49k final, which will be around BOP unadjusted at MTC2, but significantly more theaters have reserved seating now so I am going with 3.7 million (MTC1 should be a bit better ratio toward BOP). This has been a rather predictable run at MTC2 in the end. Hasn't deviated at all from projections since Monday.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    TSS Thursday was at 27552 in MTC2 in my last run (up 7726 since my update last night). I did update significantly earlier than usual so the pace will be inflated relative to other comps, but it's not a bad pace and walkups so far are decent. Nothing crazy to change the film's trajectory but I still think 4 million previews is possible and 3.5 at least should happen. But I also had a decent day yesterday while most other trackers showed awful days so who knows.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    I guess it's finishing par or below JC there. Pace today was a good bit lower (146 vs 178 if I'm reading the comps right)
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Thursday Showtimes: 2008 (+98) Seats Sold: 19826/285462 (+4589) Friday Showtimes: 4354 (+129) Seats Sold: 17207/652167 (+4156) Thursday Comps BW: 2.44 million F9 (est): 2.56 million JC (est): 4.56 million Friday Comps BW (est): 4.38 million F9 (est): 5.68 million JC (est) : 7.08 million *estimated comps are because the comp is off by an hour or two, so I adjust based on my estimate of the hourly pace. Should not make a huge difference. Thursday actually had an ok day which surprised me after the dire numbers from other trackers. Still with MTC1 slowing down and after looking at what Keyser had for BOP (when we had significantly less MTC coverage) I will bump my prediction down to 3.5. But I really cannot see it going below 3 like some have said, unless walkups are really horrible. Friday on the other hand had an awful day. The pace bump was average, and with the pace so low, it needed more than that. Probably heading for 6.5-7.5 million. Weekend probably in low 20s, guessing around 23 million. Hopefully it gets great walkups tomorrow and can beat these numbers. Edit: changed my range for Friday to 6.5-7.5 from 7-7.5 because, given that the presales are significantly more frontloaded than even BW, I can't rule out Friday being less than 2x Thursday. I still think it's unlikely given that TSS previews are very small and so it should be easier to double with Friday walkups, but it is far from impossible.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    I wouldn't say there is no information backing up mid-20s (see yesterday's Denver comps for example). I still think mid-20s is possible if things pick up. As for the trades, they don't use presales much in their tracking. It's mostly based on survey data I think, combined with "expectations"
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    3 seems a tad low. It's going to finish a decent % above JC in both MTC1 and MTC2 barring something crazy. That has to count for something. That said the pace is definitely below what I was hoping. Thinking around 3.5 now.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Usually Google Trends is a better indicator than trailer although its still very rough. No, week to week, but most likely the gap is because "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings" has such a long official title that many searches wouldn't get counted. FFH had the same issue iirc, where searches showed it far below CM but they were relatively close in actual BO.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    Google Trends are awful. Not even close to BW at the same point. This may be Marvel's first flop in a while but I will wait to see how presales are. Realized this may be a function of the movie having a long name. I compared Shang-Chi character to BW character (instead of comparing the movies) and it looked a lot better. Still, I'm not very high on this movie (BO wise, I think it will be pretty good in quality), but I'll wait and see.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Which was a popular and well liked movie. Trying to attribute a low OW for this one to Guardians 2 is nonsense. Most people don't even care about the director for superhero movies.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    Looking at past films, should add another 1200 from here which I think would put most comps in the mid 3s. Hopefully Sacramento is underperforming.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Do we have a time traveler here?
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    I agree with 20+ based on MTC2. Especially because based on Friday numbers it won't be frontloaded.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    TSS MTC2 Thursday Showtimes: 1910 (+387) Seats Sold: 15237/276962 (+3018) Friday: Showtimes: 4225 (+868) Seats Sold: 13051/640873 (+3474) Thursday Comps: BW: 2.22 million (estimated since I took 2 hours earlier) F9: 2.41 million (estimated since I took 1 hour earlier) JC: 4.73 million (estimated since I took 2 hours later) Friday Comps (all estimated for same reason): BW: 4.19 million F9: 5.63 million JC: 7.73 million Slightly over one day of data but should not make a huge difference. No change in prediction.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    JC was 7400 on the Saturday before. It has 5 days to get there. I think 38k-48k-95k. Hopefully it does better than that.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Free Guy MTC2 Thursday Showings: 894 Seats Sold: 1276/136319 Friday Showings: 2050 Seats Sold: 2199/333702 Probably a better start than I expected but don't think I will check this again until close to release.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    I would keep expectations in check on the IM. 10x previews would be very unlikely at this stage.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    110 seems like a lot from only 12k in the last 4 days. That would require really high bumps.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    I may be optimistic here but I think 4 million is doable based on MTC data. MTC2 I think is heading for about 50k final. The way MTC1 was going last week I think 90k is doable there if MTC2 hits 50k. That would be 140k final which would be a bit over 4, although could be lower if Regal underperforms like it did for BOP.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah, I'll do it tomorrow.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    That comp is gonna drop fast for Friday. JC sold 6k tickets for Fri between Mon night and Tues night. TSS will be lucky to do 4k. At this point MTC1 needs to do the heavy lifting and we can hope that it gets good numbers in Regal.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    Thursday Showtimes: 1523 (+110) Seats Sold: 12219/238049 (+2456) Friday: Showtimes: 3357 (+117) Seats Sold: 9577/547957 (+2478) Thursday Comps: BW: 2.06 million F9: 2.37 million JC (estimated since I took 2 hours later): 4.91 million Friday Comps: BW (estimated since I took 3 hours later): 3.95 million F9: 5.38 million JC (estimated since I took 2 hours later): 8.56 million This is a day and a half of data. Some improvement (other than F9 Friday comp which surprisingly decreased) still looks very frontloaded, still thinking 4 million previews and mid-20s OW. Weird factoid, probably not terribly important: Friday did improve quite a bit on Sunday (I did a run this morning which I did not post) and it was running well ahead of Thursday in the morning (having sold 1500 vs 1300 tickets since my Sunday early afternoon update). But then it slowed today and sold only 977 tickets (vs 1150 for Thursday) since then. I have never seen this before, usually the Fri/Th ratio improves continuously up until Wednesday. I'm wondering if the announcement of that Atom deal that @TwoMisfits mentioned caused a temporary spike for Friday.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    This franchise is huge in trailer likes. First one had way more Youtube likes than the actual WW-C total would have indicated.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    My midpoint is around 26 rn, so that seems a good meltdown bar.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    It had a good Sunday for sure, from both Eric and Porthos. Hopefully the start of a trend. I think 4m is quite doable for previews, bigger issue is whether Friday can improve.
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