Menor the Destroyer

Initial trailer metrics don't seem to be anything great, but it's been a while since I saw any comps. Trailer itself was solid. Loved the choral Avengers theme. Yeah Twitter trending is fairly poor too. It's being overshadowed by Space Jam. Granted, third trailers don't tend to do all that well anyway other than for TFA/Endgame-style events.

If BW gets good audience reactions than any "signal" from release date changes will not matter. People know that COVID has messed with the moviegoing schedule. Like even though COVID is under control in China, people are aware that it's still going on in the rest of the world, right?

In general Saturday PSm will be better, but when PS are up by 25%, that would probably influence the PSm lower just because it's harder to get a high multi off a high base. So it's possible it could be lower.

The presales are ~25% up from Friday though (from Keyser's estimates and the numbers from Inceptionzq). Doesn't mean the gross will be, but the 25% statement referred to the presales.

Saturday will likely increase from Friday. In presales it was well ahead.

If PS is close to OD level then we can expect a sizeable bump today. Maybe even 14 is possible.

It will be close to 41 after today itself. 5-day should be right around 50.

I mean the potential for piracy could have hurt the OW?

Yes. Excluding those it would be ~9.6 million excluding PWPs.

Just 200 and 150k would require night walkups to be lower than an OD weeknight. That would be quite shocking to me.

Should go well past OD at MTC1 then, as it has already nearly caught up to the comparable number. MTC2 it's harder to say. At this stage I would say 11.5-12 is my guess for Friday. 470k between the 2 MTCs yielding 10.3ish million minus PWPs, then depending on how much of today's PWPs are actually for GvK.

Weren't you earlier saying 20 million 5-day would be good? Now that it's doing more than double that it's a flop?

That was very enjoyable. This show continues to be quite entertaining. I do hope the next episode is a bit slower-paced though as a lot happened in this one and there needs to be some processing.

Yeah that is not that encouraging of a PS finish. Probably 10-11 is more likely than 15. I think it can hit 12 though, being 54% ahead of yesterday, which will already give 10, then probably better walkups.

Watched Godzilla 2014 for the first time, will try to fit in the other Monsterverse films (which I have seen before) before watching GvK. I found it to be quite a good film. The beginning was bogged down by exposition, and Bryan Cranston's character didn't do much for me, but after they land in Hawaii the film is absolutely fantastic. Tension is built really well and the visuals are astounding. The directing is what really makes this one, I wish we would see some more Gareth Edwards blockbusters beyond this and Rogue One (and Rogue One was only partly his).

I quite enjoyed this. I will be contrarian and say that Bryan Cranston's character didn't do a whole lot for me. I felt like the movie picked up significantly after he was dead. Really, this movie is at it's best when it's wordless, and when the main character is just a window for us to experience the terrifying power of the monsters. Until Hawaii, it's bogged down by exposition left and right (like after Bryan Cranston's character died, the son has no time to mourn, and is immediately taken to Monarch delivering exposition). But after we land in Hawaii the film is absolutely fantastic. Tons of brilliant and memorable images. It really emphasizes how big these monsters are, and how powerless humans are to stop them. I didn't mind the cutaway at the airport, though I could have down without the news broadcast showing the action afterwards, it felt unnecessary to show the fight indirectly after deliberately hiding it. Even so, the fights at the end were excellent and were plenty enough for me. Again, I felt ATJ's character worked better when wordless and after Hawaii we get a lot of those scenes where a monster is just looming over him and he is completely powerless and tiny. It's masterful visual storytelling. For all the scenes Hawaii and afterward, I would give an A, but the beginning does unfortunately drag the film down a bit. So I'll give it a B.

That was for the weekend PWPs. Day 2 should be mostly GvK.

9.6 6.8 15 17 12 = 60.4 Yeah this is an optimistic prediction. Personally I think more like 13-13.5 but let's see. To be fair weekend walkups should be much higher than a weekday OD in normal times, though as you say COVID may change that to an extent.

Yeah, 130 and 140 makes more sense to me than 125 and 120, as we have still many more hours to go on the West Coast. As far as Friday I do think 13+ million, but I was being conservative with that 12 (hence why I said "GvK should have a better jump"). Right now Friday occupancy is lower than Thursday at the same point, but Good Friday walkups should be stronger. Fingers crossed.

The actual ticket numbers should be higher than that as we have several more hours to go. But yeah 6.5-6.8 seems about right unless PWPs really fell off a cliff today (doubtful). That will be ~80% of RPO's true OD. The same ratio for Friday would give 12. GvK should have a better jump with PS being so strong and the fact that it's jumping from D2 rather than OD, but even that same 12 would put it on pace for a $50 million 5-day.

That seems quite good. If it follows the usual trend, final PS will be 85% of OD. With better walkups it should easily clear OD.

5.5 minus PWP would be pretty decent I think, that may be like 6.2 overall.

Idk, the trailer was really massive and I don't think it was just timing. And it has been doing big numbers in many countries with many different Covid situations. Historically, we know that crossovers to tend to have significant upside potential relative to the rest of the franchise, seems like that was the case here. I think, while the timing is certainly better than Tenet or Wonder Woman 1984, it's mostly a hindrance in terms of this movie reaching its full potential.

I wouldn't be surprised if it had opened over 100 million DOM, and without piracy perhaps 90-100 million in China as well. Asia numbers would have been massive. It would've been the biggest Monsterverse film by far.