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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah 75-80% of TLK's Friday seems a good range. That will still be good for 150+ weekend. From your data it seems that PS should have ended up right in the expected 15 million range or pretty close at least.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    That was really good. Seeing the Mandos fight was amazing and reminded me of some of the best scenes in TCW.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    Expanding on this. If you read the tracking thread 8.5 million was entirely predictable, but Friday ps was way ahead of Thursday and then Saturday was far ahead of even that. It's not going to play like any mega opener we've seen before.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    Very little. Let us wait for today's numbers.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    First two are in the summer, the last is not the same genre.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    You shouldn't, and the presales bear that out, but from some of the comments here it looks like some people haven't realized that the previews are by far the least important part of the weekend here.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Better than your prediction in the tracking thread?
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Assuming our ratios for MTCs are correct those numbers will require almost Avenger level presale loading.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah I was about to say isn't 5 million Endgame level there. Also Scrat was really huge back in the day
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Like 2 am Central
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    Agreed, I think 15x or higher is very doable.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Caveat being that bigger previews will make the big multi harder
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    130 is possible, so is 160 but it just depends on how PS goes in the late hours today and all of tomorrow. OD and Saturday sales need to pop and not stall like Thursday did if it's going to go for huge numbers. Now, perhaps this is just going to be a PS-heavy film and then we get to 130 million. Or maybe Thursday was hurt by being a schoolday and we get great late sales for the weekend. Either way it's a big success with how well the next week is looking to go.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    This has been a much weirder run than TS4 though. That one was quite predictable as after the initial surge faded it quickly dropped and stayed at 2/3 of I2. F2 has been all over the place with the weird Cinemark/AMC ratios, strange late slowdown, unusual sales distribution etc.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Fair enough. Well 130 would still be a great result with Thanksgiving week coming up despite the final week of PS being a bit disappointing.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm skeptical of using the multi when we don't really have any good comps. That said the late increases have indeed been soft. Still FSS presales started so strong that even lower-than-expected late sales will yield big numbers. Like I find it hard to see Saturday even in the absolute worst case going below 50 million. I will probably lower to 150 from 165 though.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    Tomorrow morning should be fun...I foresee the emotions in this thread whipsawing wildly over the course of the weekend.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    The walkup trend relative to yesterday seems fine to me, it's just that the last couple of days have been really slow for preview sales. I guess it's a combination of the factors you mentioned, but hopefully since the rest of the weekend has been trending/accelerating much better it won't end up meaning anything. The bolded I suppose is a combination of Thanksgiving week/weekend (still I don't think that's making up more than 25%) and a super backloaded OW. I still think Friday presales have a decent shot to get to $15 million nationwide, that's 50-60% ahead of what previews are looking to be!! And Saturday is going to be even crazier. In any case, this has been one of the most interesting PS runs to track and I'm excited to see how things play out.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    9 million looking more and more likely.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah, that's why I'm estimating multiples below TS4. TS4 had 12 million Friday PS which went up to a 36 million pure OD. I don't think 40 is too much to ask from 15 million in PS.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    Less than 25% to next week from the data I scraped. Thus if we know that F2 is more than 150% of TS4, take 75% of that you still get 113%, and we know it's lagging TS4 in preview sales as well. Remove that, FSS should be ahead by an even bigger margin. I am relatively confident that Friday presales will be $15 million+ leading to 40+ pure OD and 55+ Saturday.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    I2 was more than 50% ahead of TS4 on Pulse like @The Fast and the Furiosa said. The two were not even close. To beat it by Thursday morning is quite impressive especially since we know it's way way behind for previews.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    Could have even been before. With EG they waited until opening Thursday even though it should have blown through the record well before that
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    What was the school holiday situation for TLK vs now?
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    Way too early to rule it out. We still don't know what the Fri/Sat bump will be. From PS it's looking huge.
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