RJ 95

851.9 + 56m (32.5% drop) + 11 Dom WE + 6m weekdays = 925m Of course Terminator will open to more market next WE but some parts of Europe also will have Friday holiday and good weather hopefully help too. Also Japan hold probably in 10-15% on WE because Monday holiday and Spain will have really strong weekdays to help. That 32.5% hold seems achievable.

So only 37% drop over last weekend OS, better drop than LW. Such a nice hold, when early on we expect 45% will be a good drop. Also weekdays number increase to 33.6m, only 39.2% drop over previous weekend.

As impressive as it's domestic performance, overseas performance is much more impressive or specifically it's Europe market performance. It's already 3 where it's locked to/already surpass Endgame : Greece, Portugal and Lithuania. Finland and Spain may follow next.

Portugal Joker last weekend accumulated 73.456 admission and € 406k, down 33% from LW. Total € 3.460.343 and 621.134 admission Great chance to surpass Avengers : Endgame next weekend with 670.413 admission. https://ica-ip.pt/pt/downloads/box-office/

Monday - Japan Joker have a nice hold with 22.3% drop from last Wednesday and 56% from Sunday. I won't use last week Monday because its evening business hugely inflated with Tuesday holiday and generally in Japan, Joker get same result in Monday or Wednesday. Est for Monday 550k

So I'm bored and trying to calculate, how much Joker can get from it's biggest market and some logic behind it. Some of them maybe optimistic or normal hold. Asia-Pacific : -SK = $2m, if there is no big loss of screen on Thursday it can get easily to this amount even more if it's hold stay in 40-50% -Japan = $13m, with 26% drop each week it will get this number leading to $47m finish. -Australia = $3.5m, don't expect much. Just with 40-50% drop. Europe : -UK = $10m, constant 40% drop and £55m finish. -Russia = $1-1.5m, like Australia and SK already at the end of it's run. -Spain = $8m, it have chance to gross more and surpass endgame but I'm trying to hold our expectation. -Italy = $5.5m, also like Spain very close finish with Endgame and €29m finish. -France = $14m, with 25% drop next week ( very much achievable with school breaks and holiday) and 40% after that. -Germany = $10m, next weekend drop hopefully softer and 40% afterwards. -Mexico= $1.5m, with steep drop each week, not much it will get after that. Let's hope $2m for rounding it nicely. -Brazil = $6.5m. With this still drop in 30-35%, and decent weekedays. $36-37 finish seems in reach. So in total still $76m more from this, let's take 65m-85m for big range. With smaller market still going strong. 700m OS finish achievable. Sorry for this extremely long post. Just want to share my thoughts.

Huge drop in New Zealand (50%) and a very nice drop in Australia (35%).

Thanks, how high do you think it can reach ? 3.5-3.7 million possibly ?

With Friday holiday in some parts of Europe, good weather for cinema in Europe, and possible 10-15% drop in Japan surely good chance its drop will be a lot closer to 30 than 40 for next weekend. Also maybe it can recover some screen that Terminator took this past weekend like in UK and Germany for example.

I will say with Mexico declining rapidly, it's almost lock that it will pass Mexico as 2nd biggest market for Joker. It will get 10-12m more. Also next weekend hold will be <20% because Monday holiday. At the end of it's run, in highest to lowest order for top 10 probably UK, Japan, Mexico, France, SK, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Russia

Surely beating Endgame in admission is doable right because " Fiesta del Cine" will boost it's admission number ? So optimistic prediction Mon-Thu = € 1.7m Fri-Sun = € 1.8m ?? Or can it do more probably ?

Look at those legs tho : France with 24% drop, sorry forgot that LW 7.2m. I always thought it only get 6.7m. Reasonable number. Germany 38% drop UK 38% drop Japan 25% drop, Screendaily include Friday like last weekend. Brazil 35% Spain 30% ??!!, this is the most questionable one Italy 40% SK 31%, probably a bit overestimate Australia 33% Mexico 56% Russia 50%

Joker $2.4m, Total $22.5m Just 30% drop... WB surely overestimate it right ?

Update Country breakdown Some of those number is really crazy though, hope WB doesn't overestimate it. I mean... -Spain 2.4m, only 30% drop despite next Mon-Wed discount days. -Japan 3.1m ???, Ahh they must include Friday too. C'mon Screendaily, it's only Sat-Sun weekend in Japan. -France 5.5m, just 24% drop !!. Reasonable I forgot it got 7.2m LW. Sorry.. https://www.screendaily.com/box-office/maleficent-2-nears-300m-after-83m-global-box-office-session/5144153.article

Yup, Europe will have crazy hold next WE. Also weekdays in Spain alone will be good enough to add 1.3-1.5m alone because Mon-Wed discount days. Lastly I almost forget. Next weekend Japan barring any big loss of screen and seats will have fantastic hold because November 4th, Monday is holiday. So evening business will be much stronger than normal Sunday.

Nice 80.2m weekly (Mon-Sun), only drop 38.6 on the weekend, 41% for whole week and 41.4% for midweek. Impressive hold. Again above expectation, Rest of Europe must be still dropping in 20-40% area .That drop certainly unsustainable if they don't because many Asia market apart of Japan and SK, dropping >45%. That's the beauty when your best market in Europe. 675m finish looks like very doable. Also good news that next weekend might be even crazier because Friday holiday in some parts of Europe.

Why don't you use per film average ? It's much more fair.

Saturday - Japan Well.. Well.. Great day for Joker, dropping just 22.5% from LW, better than yesterday in terms of drop and also by very tiny margin admission total. It could be very very close for Saturday and Sunday number. Usually Saturday is 5% bigger than Sunday. Looking at 25% drop over the weekend for Joker. Argentina also had a great Saturday number dropping just 20% from previous Saturday and for Thu-Sat just 27.4% decrease over LW. With Germany, Italy, France, SK and UK having less than 40% drop. Even though Rest of Asia market a bit crumbling and drop harder than European market, these big market still enough I guess to make weekend drop number much closer to 40 than 45%.

Like in 1-3 November 2013 right ? But Gravity and other movies still increased in the same way on Saturday like in the previous weekend although of course Thu-Fri increase just 118% rather than 140-160% in previous weekend because obvious reason.

If weekday holds still going strong this week, possibly £ 47m at the end of this weekend right ? How high do you think it can reach, £55m possibly ?

Isn't that also mean Joker drop > 50%, if it's gross <2.8m and >2m ? Hopefully in 2.5-2.7m range.

Saturday Mal 2 € 928.167 Joker € 795.259 Mal 2 increase with 129%, just a bit weaker increase than LW (136%). Joker increase by 103%. Joker set for 40-41% drop from LW.

At this rate, it needs to get into >330m domestic minimum to still have a chance to 1B. To ancipate if there is > 50% drop in later OS legs.

Yup, after it's second weekend. I expect 4.7m max but it seems it can get into 5.2-5.3m admission.

Friday - Japan Joker drop around 26.5 % compared to last week. Same range of drop like yesterday. Hopefully next day will have better drop. Also win by 71% over Gemini and 76% over Mal 2. Also in Argentina it's already for Thu-Fri, Joker drop 35% from LW. If Brazil also drop in this range and UK not dropping in >45% drop. Joker seems set to drop in 45% from LW OS . SK, Germany, France and Italy seems doing better than expected ( 30-40% drop). Spain possibly drop 50% but will recover in Mon-Wed. So barring any steep drop in rest of Europe and Asia. Safe to say Joker won't drop in >50% range.