Starphanluke

Oh god. This coming in under Transformers would be wild.

Oh shit, that's bad. I honestly didn't expect polling that bad.

Feels like that's a little harsh on Transformers, but it could totally happen. Competition is going to hurt. The rest feels right.

Who's starting the "Flash under Transformers OW" club?

Dune Messiah would be next. I'd like to at least see him complete that and then move on. It's a good stopping point for a while. A different director could even pick it up from there if the movies continue.

Very interested to see where estimates fall. Based on past antics, I fully expect Paramount to announce $60m, even if Transformers falls a little short of it in actuals.

There's the animated movie coming for sure next year. Maybe they'll take the wait-and-see until after that one to know if there's long-term interest in the franchise.

Oh, duh

Can someone explain to me (because I'm an idiot) why that's a meh Sat bump for Spider-Verse, but good for Transformers?

If it does manage to hit near 500, that puts it in the realm of not being a total loss.

Yeah, it's hard to rule it out after what happened this week with Transformers. But Transformers was at least showing the growth signs by now.

Couple of hot (not really, more like mild) takes: This feels like a pretty big win for Transformers domestically. Reversing a collapsing franchise box office run, especially in a time of relative upheaval in the box office space, is a hopeful sign. Does it mean the movie's magically going to turn a profit or something? Nah. They spent too much on it, and China isn't showing up in the same way it always does to pick up the slack. But I'm not convinced the franchise is buried. And more generally: I'm glad this shows the current marketplace *can* balance multiple movies performing healthy numbers at the same time. At least in the US. Edit: this was supposed to be in the Weekend thread. Oops.

Do we have any idea what the International weekend for Transformers minus China is looking like? We know China is headed for 35-40m ish, Domestic 55m+, but what about the rest? Is another 30m in the other markets doable?. Edit: found the answer in another thread.

You saying the movie is performing well in Puerto Rico, or Paramount is gonna "find" money there like they did with AoE in order to say they won the weekend?

Maybe I'm getting too caught up in the hype juice, but I have a feeling the IM will be solid for Transformers. I have a hard time seeing it being worse than Fast X.

Damn idk. I might be in the >$60m camp for Transformers now. Walkups were strong on Thursday.

Huh, stronger slant towards true Thursday than I expected.

The "if it was made on 2007" meme did more marketing for this movie than Paramount ever did. (Yes, I'm obviously exaggerating. But still).

Another interesting factor to consider here (if the weekend does indeed play out with Transformers over-performing relative to expectations): the live action Transformers movies are weirdly popular on TikTok. Probably because the main demographic there are coming into an age where they're nostalgic for the early Bay movies. Wonder if it's a group that's hard to track.

Yeah, though it was a Wednesday opener. I think 5-day was something around $65m

I definitely agree there's no reason for RotB to be $200m (although there are lots of Bots with lots of screentime, so I can see how it came in over Bumblebee), but I don't think this kind of stuff is nearly as black-and-white as what you're boiling it down to. Especially when you consider that Hasbro is helping fund Transformers, and part of their success metric is how it moves toy sales, which a stronger-than-expected performance at the domestic BO will definitely do. Idk. Paramount isn't drowning in viable IP in the way Disney and Universal are. If Transformers shows even small signs of life, it's something they have to consider.

If Transformers somehow manages to hit $60m domestic, that's honestly kind of a win for the franchise. Stopped the bleeding domestically at least. But... it sort of leaves Paramount in a weird position. If it was an outright bomb everywhere, it's easier to leave the franchise behind. But if it shows signs of life... suddenly it's hard for Paramount to completely ignore. But it isn't what it used to be. Tricky tricky.

Wtf is going on. Plot twist! We'll see what happens with Cinemascore and WOM throughout the weekend.

I think it's time to slow our roll on the "Flash and Indy bombs" talk. Transformers doing over it's disastrous early expectations and those underperforming a bit doesn't put them in the same boat lmao.

Feels right. There's still time obviously, but it's funny how we wondered for months how all these movies would be able to play well in June. The answer was simply: they didn't. ATSV going to benefit the most.