Starphanluke

I definitely agree there's no reason for RotB to be $200m (although there are lots of Bots with lots of screentime, so I can see how it came in over Bumblebee), but I don't think this kind of stuff is nearly as black-and-white as what you're boiling it down to. Especially when you consider that Hasbro is helping fund Transformers, and part of their success metric is how it moves toy sales, which a stronger-than-expected performance at the domestic BO will definitely do. Idk. Paramount isn't drowning in viable IP in the way Disney and Universal are. If Transformers shows even small signs of life, it's something they have to consider.

If Transformers somehow manages to hit $60m domestic, that's honestly kind of a win for the franchise. Stopped the bleeding domestically at least. But... it sort of leaves Paramount in a weird position. If it was an outright bomb everywhere, it's easier to leave the franchise behind. But if it shows signs of life... suddenly it's hard for Paramount to completely ignore. But it isn't what it used to be. Tricky tricky.

Wtf is going on. Plot twist! We'll see what happens with Cinemascore and WOM throughout the weekend.

I think it's time to slow our roll on the "Flash and Indy bombs" talk. Transformers doing over it's disastrous early expectations and those underperforming a bit doesn't put them in the same boat lmao.

Feels right. There's still time obviously, but it's funny how we wondered for months how all these movies would be able to play well in June. The answer was simply: they didn't. ATSV going to benefit the most.

Except they never say this in the movie, and it's not the case 😉

Transformers doing decent (or at least not a disaster) in the US but collapsing overseas was not on my bingo card. Interested to see what walkups look like this weekend. My audience last night seemed to enjoy it. I feel like it's almost certainly going to play better to middle America. Flash tickets around me are super stagnant. No noticeable review bump at all. Plus, some slightly more positive Indy reactions are rolling in. Wonder if they will move the needle at all.

I think the budget was said to be around $200m, so feels like $500m would probably be the point it needs to hit to not bury the franchise.

Ehh, it seems to me like things are pointing to somewhere in the $40-55m range (with the caveat that it's hard to gauge what kind IM it will have), but I'm no expert. Let's see what reviews/the review bump looks like tomorrow.

Are you talking from Last Knight or Bumblebee? Either way, I don't see it hitting either of those domestic. How is pace of sales looking in China?

...all the data in this thread over the past month? There is literally nothing pointing to a $60m+ opening.

Nah, it's not hitting 60. Interestingly, almost all the AMC's in my city are keeping Spider-Verse on Dolby for the weekend, and giving Transformers IMAX.

I could see that being the case. No matter where the opening falls, I don't see a case where legs are anything better than average. But closer to Fast X feels right. It'd be a weird move from Paramount if the theaters do the discount. Mario really proved you just... don't need to do the previews if you're opening on a Wednesday.

Took a peek at Flash sales near me, and at almost all the theaters around the city, Thursday previews look solid but the rest of the weekend looks... dire. Indy sales actually seem fine for being so far off. I'm still confused why they started sales so early.

Legit cannot get a read if this movie is gonna have $7m previews or $3m previous. It feels so all over the place. And then no clue what the IM looks like from there. What a weird one to track.

Rest in peace, sweet prince :'-) Unrelated, our specialty IMAX 70mm screen here in town has sold... 0 Oppenheimer tickets so far.

I am 100% on the same boat. It's why I'll take 2 and 5 over 3 and 4 any day. I like Transformers as adventure movies. Seems like this one follows that trend.

You mean Shawn/BOPro's forecast right? I don't see how the numbers so far could lead to the $68m that Deadline and Hollywood Reporter were touting.

It still has next week to see some gains, but idk if a "surge" is in the cards for this one. The big question for the movie at this point is if it plays pre-sale/fan heavy (like the old Bay movies used to), or if it has a better IM with a better general audience play. And at this point, it's really hard to tell.

Opening/Total? Not a chance lmao. I'm not expecting a breakout or anything, but it's at least hitting 40.

Actually, as more roll in, reactions are more positive than I expected so far.

Yeah. Which I think was the rumored sentiment from test screenings, too.

The new date also gives them a good marketing angle. It's the the 40th anniversary of the franchise. (September 1984)

Reactions over 2 weeks before release is... bold

Vague updates from a pretty big city in the midwest because I'm not a legit tracker. The Little Mermaid is looking pretty good. Strong through the whole weekend, not just previews (which is expected, as a family movie). Across the Spider-Verse, to my eye, looks to be around what like Ant-Man 3 looked like a couple months ago. Not an exact science, but I'm legitimately shocked how well it has sold. Skews heavily to Thursday, though, so I guess this one will have a bigger fan rush than the first movie. The growth from the first movie is going to be really impressive. Transformers is below both, obviously, but still trucking along. It has picked up some steam on Friday since the last time I checked. Fan screening on that Wednesday looks strong... well over halfway sold out. I'm impressed by it steadily moving more tickets, even as there are like 5 other major movies on sale. Still feel like it will be buried. I'll check Flash and Indy later lmao.