You cannot convince me that a movie that get people collectively agree to pay extra for premium experience is a lesser franchise than other blockbusters.
Not sure if this helps but CD to NY day drop could offer some insight how a film will hold post-holiday.
Avatar 1: +9.4%
TGS: -4%
Juamanji TNL : -13.4%
Jumanji 2017 : -15%
Aquaman: -26%
NWH: -29%
TFA: -30%
RO: -35%
TROS: -47%
TLJ: -48%
Avatar TWOW's -16% clearly is on the better half side.
But how do you explain the tracking throughout dailies in the past few days have been up and up? If the night showing didn't perform as strong, the dailies should have miss early day projection.
Last week Disney projected a $21m from CD but actual put the number at $29m
Again this week project another $21m for NY day so the actual will come to $29m too! $71m then!
I hope Avatar will get an extension in China. It is not going to gross a lot more over CNY but at least keep the movie gross in running. Every millions matter.
$22.5m is good but still isn't something that I would say OMG!! All I want is a gain from 2nd weekend, Hope the holiday push the nightime showing better and West Coast overperform.
Actually no harm for them to give extension,. They have JWD too because they realised they not gonna make a lot of load money during those extended period, especially when Avatar 2 relies so heavily on PLF screen.
Whether if the movie can hit $1.4bn by Sunday is also heavily depend on China. Over there, there seem to be some good trend as the movie gross ~¥26m on Thursday, just 3% drop from last Thursday. This is pointing to a superb hold over the 4 days long New Year weekend for China.