vale9001

the reviews for The fall guy in my country are even better than in the US. Let's see if the audience will really like it and at least can have a surprising WOM with the summer season coming.

I'm surprised here in Italy despite a lot of promo the sales right now are very very stale. Tomorrow is the eve of a national holiday (the liberation from the nazis) and even with that in my theater in Milan there are like only 20 tickets sold in the late night show a nothing for the afternoon screenings. I feel this will make good or could explode somehow, i don't know why, but imo this shows the only appeal this movie has are the actors, so it's interesting to see how will play internationally where the actors are not big...well only zendaya actually is "big" in the Us. Guadagnino as director doesn't have appeal or the tennis on a movie or any other particular thing of the movie.

predictions for Challengers? How are the sales distributed into the weekend? Seems a little bit frontloaded (cause young women) or not?

The problem of quorum it's not clear what are the questions they make. If you ever study statistics you know making questions for a survey it's a specific art and the way you put a question can change a lot the percentage any answer gets. I'm gonna watch Changellers with my brother next friday and he wrote me on a message "did you see the spot of this movie about tennis, it's from the call my by your name director"... i said to him "challengers?".. "i don't remember the title right now" so if they just ask "did you hear about a movie called challengers" he would say no 😅

The Fall guy is about late walk ups and WOM. I don't see why someone should buy tickets 20 days before. The promotion and the reactions in the last week and first weekend is what really matters. At the same time i feel Challengers pre sales could be very owned by young women, and we know that could mean very frontloaded. So some of the weekend previews i'm reading here could be a little bit optimistic if the movie doesn't attract also a more mature audience once it's out.

when you have 2 Barbenheimer actors of course you can't not try to use that to sell this movie too. They made it at the Oscars, they made it at Snl and it's ok but now it's time to focus on the movie and let that rest in peace.

Taylor even posted it on twitter and instagram. Btw I think for both The fall guy and Challengers is the WOM once they're out what matters. The first of course have to make more cause its budget is mid blockbuster level. 40-45M would be a decent start but also 30-35 with a good WOM wouldn't be that bad imo (budget is 125M, not 200M or more) and I think can do decent- good numbers all around the world. Less than that would be bad of course.

challengers can make a cute opening but there is no reason to be a breakout right now. The average american doesn't know what a Guadagnino is and the two main male actors are unknown. For a romantic comedy the male actor is important to sell the movie. Zendaya has yet to prove she can sell a movie as main star and anyways i don't see her being like a julia roberts- sandra bullock, so someone really appeling to women for a female movie. Her audience really seems just kids and internet stans. Can became a big hit if it's actually really a good movie for this kind of audience and can reach them with WOM. But after even Poor things made just 35M total in the Us with christmas, emma stone, awards season etc... i'm not very positive about adult dramas in the Us right now.

we should be honest with this. The basic people can like a movie about joker don't want to see joker and Harley Quinn dancing numbers and people singing for more than 2 times in 2 hourse of movie. There is this idea the first movie was liked by this elite audience when it's the same audience liking john wick and a Tarantino movie.

they are based on the pre sales started 2 months before. It's really hard to predict how this can open, so the prediction is like 20M if flops, 40M if makes good. Something imo you can say even without pre sales.. i mean you see this movie and you say worst scenario 20M (less than that seems very unlikely), 40M best scenario. The last week before the release it's when things will became clearier...and anyways this is a kind of rom com too. So even if it opens with just 40M there are chances the legs can be good like for the tatum-bullock movie or anyone but you. I don't think we should focus too much only on the first weekend.

guadagnino is a very pretentious person lol trust me i'm italian and i know him more than the average english person cause I see his interviews in italian and everything and i knows him as public figure from 25 years, not 5 years. Anyways i didn't even meant his movies are pretentious, just american stars like him cause they like this kind of allure they think it's gonna give it to their curriculum (probably agents have a large part on telling them to choose him). But if If you tell to Zendaya what are the sources and influences of Guadagnino movies she doesn't know a name of these directors, let alone having watched a movie of them, be serious.

these american musical biopics are always bad or mediocre to me. I can't think at one really good. So...yeah but nothing shocking

this is gonna have initial high hype but then what should be its target won't like it. It's crazy the appeal Guadagnino has for these american stars when then he makes a cinema americans don't like. Probably they like the pretentious sophisticated european cinema vibe they can take from it.

do people know there is right now a Broadway musical about MJ life both in New York and London and it's a huge hit? (coming for the 1000th performance in New york in a few months) And the actor playing MJ won the Tony Award for best actor in a musical? There is a huge demand for MJ contents.

if the 15 songs are all Cole Porter and Stephen Sondheim classics goodbye 1B. I really don't see his male basic audience to care about this. Especially cause i want to watch good performers for this kinda of enterteinment. Gaga of course can do really good but Phoenix please he's gonna be boring and mediocre as hell at singing and dancing this kinda of music.

I'm sad after the recent success of female driven movies and Anyone but you Prime video didn't get this a big screen chance. It even has initial great reviews. The Idea of You | Rotten Tomatoes

something with 7000 performances just in London, plus a couple of Uk tours (estimated 8-9M viewers in London alone) what needs? Two others West End classics were huge: Les Miserables (61M), Mamma mia (89M) . Chicago made 26M +, so basically 45M with the actual average ticket price. Usually the flops on the big screen are the Andrew Llyod Webber musicals 🤣 (Cats and the panthom of the opera). I don't know about Paddingotn but at least Wicked is not a panned disaster like cats with all november and december I see it at Le Miz and Mamma mia level. It's perfect for Christmas like Wonka cause it's a very disneyan musical both for the story and for the music style. Something remembers also The Greatest showman.

movie of the year in the Uk is gonna be Wicked right? Chances for even more than Wonka I guess.

seems not 100% complete. Italy total is at 3.1M (10 march) but now it's at 4.2M

dune really tanked here. Weekends are still good but weekdays are playing like the adults movies, so kinda of weak. It still gonna make 10M with the easter weekend coming but not that more. Seems like 10.5M final is the more we can get.

These Jennifer Lopez or Ryan Reynolds movies on Netflix breaks records too but as Tarantino said who knows them?. I don't want to compare these movies to Avatar but it's not about memes. You don't need memes to know star wars, back to the future, titanic, lord of the rings and many others were cultural phenomenons. You don't need social networks to see how characters like Gollum, Gandalf were only know by fantasy readers became total cultural icons and no Avatar characters has that. What's wrong if we admit Avatar is not cultural relevant?. People watched the first movie cause it was the first movie after Titanic (and first movies in 12 years from Cameron) and because "you have to see it in 3D". The sequel came after 13 years and it was the sequel of a movie with 3B dollars in the box office. So people saying "this is not gonna make 1B" especially with a christmas release, were delusional. Still if you make a comparison between tickets sold with the crazy amount again to watch the movie in 3D IMAX or whatever cause "you have to see it in that way" i'm not saying it sold half of the tickets of the first but not that much more. Imo now it's really hard for the saga to take the momentum with a new movie released every 2-3 years when you can't sell "15 years after let's see how the technolgy changed" if people don't care about the stories. Cause yeah no avatar characters is iconic as Gollum or Dumbledore or Neo from Matrix. And it's not about the memes. Maybe it's very cultural relevant in the East of the world, I don't want to make the perception of the West something is real for cultures i don't really know personally. In the West? Avatar didn't became the next star wars, harry potter, lord of the rings. It's just not that

Chalamet is perfect for the role. If someone wants to talk about the acting in a specific scene can do it (i preferred him in general in the first movie) but it's absolutely perfect for the role in terms of physique du role. When you read the book you imagine a teenager is a little bit haughty, brusque but at the same time good spirited with his friends, with aristocatic traits and a normal body. He really seems a true aristocrat suddenly becames a hero and a god for the people. Don't have to be an action hero. Chalamet really brings all of this in the character thanks to his natural body but also for the way he acts with his body.

americans didn't show up for Poor things with Emma stone, Ruffalo and Dafoe. Golden Lion at Venice and 11 Oscar nominations. What do you expect from an A 24 drama with Kristen Stewart is not an horror movie based on plot twists.

this movie certainly remembers post pandemic things like the Tatum- Bullock, Roberts- Clooney and Anything but you movies. They all played good showing there is a (female) audience for a rom com trained by 2 big names. Even with bad reviews all of them. This seems to have the same kind of rom com energy plus the action so i'm confident now could play very good, and also seems like could be a good movie for its genre so that's help too.

so Dune should close with a 2.5X- 2.8X domestic multiplier from the first chapter. Should be one of the best increase ever for a sequel right? Of course it helps the first was released in a very "extreme" condition very few movies saw before, but still....