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Flamengo81

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Everything posted by Flamengo81

  1. Flamengo81
    Even Youtubers and other people online that covers Box Office are mostly clueless about it. There are few that actually know how it works.
  2. Flamengo81
    I don't think the openings are the problem (domestic opening, because overseas could be worrisome actually), but the reception and the legs of the MCU. The thing is: for how long will you be able to maintain such high level of openings if this trend of reception continues? Most people are worried about the long term impact...
  3. Flamengo81
    Yeah. This movie is incredible, Top 3 best Dreamworks movies ever IMO.
  4. Flamengo81
    The way the MCU is becoming more and more domestic heavy and China being not a huge factor anymore (apparently), I think a 1.3B Worldwide would lead to more like a 500-550M domestic (38-42% domestic split). Also I think New World Order is going to be a disappointment. I don't see any hype whatsoever for Sam Wilson as Captain America. Marvel loyal fans will watch it as always, but I am not sure if the GA will be interested by this, I think it will do Quantumania numbers (500M-600M).
  5. Flamengo81
    Yes.
  6. Flamengo81
    Just to clarify: I don't necessarily think Mario being more popular will translate to bigger box office, it's not a direct consequence. But I do think that this movie will make much more than Sonic and as far as general popularity, Mario is definitely a lot more popular than Sonic.
  7. Flamengo81
    And it for sure has, way bigger honestly...
  8. Flamengo81
    100% agree. I generally like Illumination movies, but like in the sense that most are just simply solid, fun movies with no greater qualities to it, different than something like great Pixar/Disney/Dreamworks movies. They are pretty f big with this pattern, if they manage to somehow make a movie that uses a huge property like Mario and is even a bit more than just "solid", I think the sky is the limit.
  9. Flamengo81
    It's confirmed: Ant-Man and The Wasp received a B Cinemascore!
  10. Flamengo81
    But every movie will have hyperbolic criticisms. The score is telling of what the consensus was and it was that it's a 5.7 movie, not too different from your personal score.
  11. Flamengo81
    NWH is an exception IMO. The circunstances were very specific and different from the other MCU movies. That movie was carried hard for the Raimi Spider-Man nostalgia and that is something that cannot be replicated. Another MCU Spider-Man movie is not going to replicate anything close to that.
  12. Flamengo81
    Yeah, but China is very likely going to be far from the monstrous box office it once was for the MCU, South Korea seems to be declining fast as well, Europe as a whole seems to be declining too, etc. So, maybe is indeed too soon to make hard conclusions, but the pattern is clearly there IMO.
  13. Flamengo81
    I think it's a very real concern, because even in places where Marvel was REALLY big like Asia (China and South Korea mostly) it's clearly losing traction and Europe seems to be even more apathetic as a whole. The MCU cannot lose it's strenght in LATAM, because it would be a very bad sign for it's overseas potential in the future.
  14. Flamengo81
    Yeah of course, I definitely agree. But it has been a clear trend since the pandemic begun and It did not change after the world "came back to normal". I think this pattern of MCU movies being clearly more depedent of domestic box office is going to be the new normal.
  15. Flamengo81
    MCU seems to be becoming more domestic heavy in general.
  16. Flamengo81
    There is no rule, but there is a clear pattern of light-hearted, fun, action packed movies having mediocre/bad legs with a B+ Cinemascore. It's even more clear when you look just at recent MCU movies with that score: MoM 2.2x and Love and Thunder 2.4x
  17. Flamengo81
    We will have to see how MCU and Batman movies performs from now on to have a better perspective I think. But given the MCU is becoming more and more frontloaded and the latest Batman movie was not too frontloaded, I personally have a hard time saying that Batman movies are more pre-sales heavy than the current MCU. It's also hard to find really accurate comparions as there is always variants that makes things more inconclusive.
  18. Flamengo81
    Joker is not a movie comparable to MCU movies, even though it's still a CMB movie. A B+ for a controversial and really dark movie as Joker is much better than a B+ for a fun and action packed MCU blockbuster.
  19. Flamengo81
    That is fair, but would still be a 6.3x which is significantly higher than MoM and Love and Thunder and almost equal to Wakanda Forever.
  20. Flamengo81
    Do you mean 3-day or 4-day? Because 3-day is a tossup IMO.
  21. Flamengo81
    That would be really interesting. Do we have the infos about previews since Batman Begins? Because if The Numbers is right about the preveiws numbers then TDK had a 8.5x IM, TDKR a 5.3x (heavily impacted by the mass shooting), BvS a 6x (with extremely toxic WOM) and The Batman 7.6x (without the EA), which gives an average of 6.8x.
  22. Flamengo81
    Oh yeah, forgot about that one. It's still very impressive, even Venom 2 which was a tricky one I think Sacto got it right...
  23. Flamengo81
    But is Batman more pre-sales heavy than the current MCU? I personally don't think it is, just by brand alone it should do better with the casual folk than an Ant-Man movie. I mean... The Batman did 17.6M previews and still opened to 134M (it had the EA thing but still), Ant-Man is going to do the same or above and will strugle to go past 100M.
  24. Flamengo81
    The thing is I don't think MCU is in the same state it was at it's peak at all, so no matter the WOM I think 150M was just off the table, at least for me. I find difficult to suppose this movie would have achieved that level of goodwill from the public and general interest. The latest 4 or 5 movies are much more telling than 2016-2019 ones IMO.
  25. Flamengo81
    This shit is just mind blowing. I became a member one year ago, but I checked over here since before and I have a hard time remembering Phortos and his damn Sacto being off.
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