Flamengo81

150M? Isn't that above like 95% of predictions over here? I thought most would agree that with decent WOM it should land in the 120-130M range.

I would say it failing to match Ant-Man 2 is VERY likely. I still don't see it geting behind the first one because of the sizeable advantage it will have domestically, but it's not impossible either IMO.

Audience Score at 84% with less than 50 verified ratings. Yeah... this is going to be ugly.

I don't think any market will be even close to 35m apart from China.

This is becoming an actually major problem in today's world IMO. People everywhere (20 years and younger much more) are becoming incapable of having just a bit of patience, a minimal attention span, ansiety through the roof and all of that stuff. It honestly does not surprise me that movies are suffering with the same thing.

The thing is: for how long can you do this though? If they don't fix it fast, at one point (and it might be close) people will just lose the confidence they have in the brand and then things will go south. They can't have years of bad/mediocre products with no consenquences to it.

I agree. I am saying that 600M is a relative success because it would be a much better expected scenario if the opening weekend collapses like it's supposedly doing. But even then, calling a success indeed might be a reach even within context, assuming the 200M budget of course.

My prediction is a 110M 4-day opening domestic and 120M overseas, from that it will do 2.3x to 530M. Anything above 600M is a relative success IMO. Relative being the key word, because the way Marvel planned this movie is not to be performing as a normal Ant-Man sequel at all, so it's surely an underperformance if it follows the expected scenarios.

I mean... Spider-Man never stopped being Marvel most popular character in any piece of media ever and will continue to be that way for a long time. Spider and Batman are easily the most popular superheroes, which can be profitable no matter who plays them, if there is a connected universe or not, what is the version of the character, if it's a reboot or not, etc. The thing is that despite him being the biggest character, I don't think that makes him a good candidate to lead the Avengers at all. That was hardly ever the case for the comics and he was most of the time doing his own shit in New York, which honestly is where he shines brighter IMO. I think of Spidey as more of a special cameo or coadjuvant in Avengers movies like Civil War and definitely not THE frontman of The Avengers.

Sheldon is one of the greatest users of this forum.

Can't help but think that Mexico box office is on fire since last year. Everytime I check there is a movie doing really great and above similar markets.

This is all I needed to hear. I am bit tired of this MCU trope of each movie being just almost just a filler that has something that it will be important for a future movie that never comes. At this point, it seems like is better to just read the synopsis of the movies and then watch the Avengers movies.

This is one of the reasons that is killing any interest I had in the MCU. It looks like 80% of movies are just commercials for the next big Avengers movie. This together with the absolute mediocre quality of most movies in phase 4 and the overdoses of series that are mostly pretty bad or forgetable is just killing the joy. I always loved Marvel superheroes, but the MCU is starting to annoy me with a lot of wrong decisions. Meanwhile DC which was very inconsistent and mostly bad outside of Batman, is looking like it has a bright and more interesting future with Gunn in charge...

I think this might not outgross Ant-Man 2 worldwide. Unless the audience repection is actually good, I have a hard time seeing this get to 650M given that China will be almost a non-factor this time around (pre-sales are terrible).

Not in Brazil.

Great run indeed. Also always good to remember that January is actually a leggy month in Brazil due to being in the height of summer and kids are out of school.

Finally saw Puss in Boots. Masterpiece IMO! Great story, great characters (Puss in Boots is the best Shrek character), AMAZING villain, beautiful animation, very good comedy, some very deep themes in there done in a beatiful and touching way, etc. More excited to see it's run now.

Understandable. Well... it was great while it lasted.

In Brazil it has a 99% chance it will land in the 5th position.

True, especially number No. 1. Here in my city in Brazil, which is a very big capital city but in one of the poorest states in the country and thusfar a lot cheaper than Rio/São Paulo, if you buy one movie ticket to a 3D session at the weekend and a Popcorno/Soda combo, for example, you will probably spend something around R$70 to R$100 which is 5-7% of the minimum wage. Let alone the price you pay for parking at the shopping, gas (which to fill the tank you spend aprox. 23% of the minimum wage) and etc...

I don't think is going to do great. It's going to do less than Elvis IMO...

The reasonable prediction is like Waluigi said, something like 220-230M IMO. But I am going to be bold and say that this could get to 250m, I think is within reach given the insane increase of last weekend, the nature of the movie and how January always leg out amazing.

Man... damn actuals taking so long!

Yes. Almost all movies increase during January over here, but of course to different degrees. Word of mouth juggernauts will display the strongest bumps in January and Avatar 2 is the prime example of that, so it makes total sense that it would increase a lot more than Spider-Man, which burned the demand relatively quickly. Expect a fantastic January for Avatar.

I can be wrong about this, but as far as I remember Brazil is very different from domestic and most overseas markets, as it performs better in January than in the holidays period of Christmas and the New Year. We just don't have the culture to go to the movies during that period and going more after the New Year, so expect Avatar to do great over here during this month...